TY - JOUR T1 - Selection of Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle Using Expected Value Analysis AU - Gülgönül, Şenol AU - Sözbir, Nedim PY - 2018 DA - October Y2 - 2018 DO - 10.16984/saufenbilder.346597 JF - Sakarya University Journal of Science JO - SAUJS PB - Sakarya University WT - DergiPark SN - 2147-835X SP - 1418 EP - 1422 VL - 22 IS - 5 LA - en AB - Selection of launchvehicle for a geostationary satellite is an important decision for satelliteoperators. Depending on only to the cost of the launcher may result unexpectedconsequences. Lifetime of the satellite is determined by the orbit parametersof the launcher. Success probability of the launcher can be deducedstatistically by previous launches or using the insurance rate of the marketfor the selected launcher. Insurancerate will be used in this study, which is also added to the cost of thesatellite project besides satellite and launcher costs. Design life time ofcommunication satellites are currently 15 years, means that manufacturerwarrant the operation of the satellite for 15 years via performance incentiveor warranty payback mechanisms. But satellites continue to generate revenuesduring their maneuver lifetime, which is more than 15 years. Expected valueanalysis is a powerful tool to include probabilistic nature of satelliteprojects. Satellite and launch costs, insurance rate and lifetime parameterswill be utilized in expected value analysis to be able to select the bestlauncher for a given satellite program. KW - geostationary satellite KW - expected value analysis KW - launch vehicle selection CR - [1] http://www.sabah.com.tr/ekonomi/2011/03/08/yeni_uydularin_faturasi_571_milyon_/ [2] http://www.spacex.com [3] https://www.rocketbuilder.com [4] http://spacenews.com/space-insurers-warn-that-current-low-rates-are-not-sustainable/ [5] M. Nefes, M. Zor, T. Tetik, S. Gulgonul, “Determination of the Evaluation Criteria Weights for a Commercial Communication Satellite Program by Using AHP Method” 1st International Symposium on Critical and Analytical Thinking, April 2015. [6] T. Tetik and G. S. Daş, "Launch vehicle selection for a geostationary communication satellite using data envelopment analysis," 8th International Conference on Recent Advances in Space Technologies (RAST), Istanbul, 2017. [7] Jean-François Gauché, “Space Risks”, Centre d’Etude Actuarielle, December 2011. [8] L. Virine, “Practical project risk management in 60 minutes” PMI Global Congress, North America, Dallas, TX, 2011. [9] P. Ordyna, “Insuring Human Space Flight: An Underwriters Dilemma”, Journal of Space Law 36, 2010. [10] Sullivan, Brook Rowland, “Technical And Economic Feasibility Of Telerobotic On-Orbit Satellite Servicing”, Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Maryland, College Park, 2005. [11] Ted Perez, Daniel Pires, Gregory Singleton, “Methodology for the economic analysis of on-orbit servicing of satellites”, IEEE Systems and Information Design Symposium, University of Virginia, 2002. [12] Franklin J. Stermole and John M. Stermole, “Economic Evaluation and Investment Decision Methods”, 14th Edition, 2014. [13] S. Gulgonul, N. Sozbir, “Propellant budget calculation of geostationary satellites”, International Conference on Energy Systems Engineering, 2017. (Accepted Paper) [14] Falcon 9 Launch Vehicle PAYLOAD USER’S GUIDE, Rev 2, October 21, 2015. [15] ARIANE-5 USER’S MANUAL ISSUE 5 REVISION 2 OCTOBER 2016. [16] PROTON Launch System Mission Planner’s Guide, Revision 7, July 2009. UR - https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.346597 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/477619 ER -