TY  - JOUR
TT  - ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOLD PRICES AND ISE 100 INDEX THROUGH BAYES THEOREM FRAMEWORK
AU  - Ilarslan, Kenan
PY  - 2017
DA  - December
DO  - 10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.740
JF  - PressAcademia Procedia
JO  - PAP
PB  - Suat TEKER
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2459-0762
SP  - 24
EP  - 28
VL  - 6
IS  - 1
KW  - Assets prices
KW  - gold prices
KW  - ISE 100
KW  - Bayes Theorem
KW  - financial prediction
N2  - Objective-In the context of finance theory, predictingthe return / price or movements of financial assets over the historic dataprovides elemination of the uncertainty and make such assets manageable.Therefore, modeling the financial asset behaviors with objective and scientificmethods greatly contribute to reduce and manage the risk. In this study, thedirection of the relationship between the Gold prices and the BIST 100 indexwas determined and tried to be estimated within a certain probability and how the change in the Gold prices in theBayes Theorem would be reflected in the BIST 100 index. Methodology-Variables used in the study are the bulliongold gram sale price and BIST 100 index and the monthly closing prices of thementioned variables are used as data set for the 18 years (2000: 01-2017: 07)period. The data were compiled from the official website of the Central Bank ofthe Republic of Turkey. E-Views 9 SV program was used for statistical analysisof data. During the methodological process, statistical methods such as PearsonCorrelation Analysis and Bayes Theorem were used. Findings-In the study, it was found that positive correlation (0,91) exist betweenthese two financial assets. In addition, thesignificance of the correlation coefficient at the 5% significance level wastested and it was determined that there was a significant correlation betweenthe Gold prices and the BIST 100 index.At a later stage, it was tried to estimate with certain probability, howthe BIST 100 index would react to an increase in gold prices. As a result ofthe analysis carried out in the framework of the Bayes theorem, it is foundthat increase of the gold prices will also lead to increase the BIST 100 indexwith 52.1% probability.Conclusion-It is important, valuable and necessary forinvestors to make accurate and on-the-spot decisions, especially in uncertaintyand risk environment in the markets. If this uncertainty is managed by beingreduced to a measurable risk level, it offers the opportunity to provideextraordinary returns or to minimize losses for individual and / orinstitutional investors. Working with scientific data and methods tounderstand, mitigate and manage the future risks of assets in this frameworkmakes a significant contribution to the success of risk management strategiesimplemented by financial institutions. In this context, a positively andstatistically significant relationship was found between gold price and BIST100 index in the study. Moreover, in the case of an increase in gold prices,the BIST 100 index will increase too with 52.1% probability.
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.740
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/392960
ER  -