TY - JOUR T1 - MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND TT - MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND AU - Öge Güney, Pelin PY - 2019 DA - January DO - 10.18092/ulikidince.404607 JF - Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi JO - IJEAS PB - Kenan ÇELİK WT - DergiPark SN - 1307-9832 SP - 93 EP - 106 IS - 22 LA - en AB - Analysis of investment decisions is animportant macroeconomic subject due to the role of fluctuations in investmentson the economic performance. It is argued that investment models need to takethis effect into account if uncertainty has an impact on investment. Therefore,the effects of uncertainty on investments have recently been analyzed in thetheoretical and empirical literature. While developing economies face moreuncertainty than industrial countries do, most empirical studies consider the uncertainty-investmentrelationship for developed counties. In this paper, we analyzed the effect of themacro economic uncertainties on private investment in a developing county: Poland.We constructed a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH) model to measure uncertainties. Then, we employed the bound testingprocedure to cointegration analysis. Since our findings indicate a long-termrelationship of the variables, we adopt an error correction model to capturethe dynamic relationship. Our estimates imply that the real exchange rate,inflation and growth uncertainties effect private investments negatively inPoland. Therefore, we can conclude that macroeconomicstabilization is a necessary condition for the continuity of investments inPoland. KW - Private Investment KW - Inflation Uncertainty KW - Exchange Rate Uncertainty KW - Bound Testing N2 - Yatırımkararlarının analizi, yatırımlardaki dalgalanmaların ekonomik performansüzerindeki etkileri nedeniyle önemli makro ekonomik konulardan biridir.Belirsizliğin yatırım kararları üzerinde etkisi varsa, yatırım modellerinin buetkiyi dikkate almaları gerektiği ileri sürülmektedir. Bu nedenle, sonzamanlarda belirsizliğin yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi teorik ve ampirikliteratürde analiz edilmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler, gelişmiş ülkelere göredaha fazla belirsizlik ile karşı karşıya olmalarına rağmen, belirsizlik veyatırım ilişkisi üzerine mevcut literatürün çoğu gelişmiş ülkeleri elealmaktadır. Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan bir ülke olan Polonya’da makroekonomik belirsizliklerin özel yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisini analiz ettik.Belirsizliği ölçmek için genelleştirilmiş otoregresif koşullu değişen varyans(GARCH) modeli kurduk. 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