TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Key Factor Analysis to the Reservoirs on the Basis of Bayesian Law
AU  - Sun, Jian
AU  - Lı, Qi
AU  - Chen, Mingqiang
AU  - Zhang, Zekai
PY  - 2019
DA  - March
Y2  - 2019
DO  - 10.22399/ijcesen.422691
JF  - International Journal of Computational and Experimental Science and Engineering
JO  - IJCESEN
PB  - İskender AKKURT
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2149-9144
SP  - 37
EP  - 42
VL  - 5
IS  - 1
LA  - en
AB  - The oil price shocksfurther exaggerates the inherent difficulties in studying exploration ofcomplex reservoirs. Therefore, as the main way of reducing cost, it's necessaryto analyze the main factors of complex reservoir formation before intensivelyexploration. Bayesian law is used to build a diagnostic model. Six key factorsin the effectiveness of hydrocarbon reservoir are starting points. According tothe maximum entropy principle and single well event’s probability of drilledwells with prior probability, the probability of adverse factors in the formingof hydrocarbon reservoir can be concluded. Therefore, influencing degree ofeach factor can be obtained. Meanwhile, by the theory of Slicher, thedistribution of oil and gas reservoirs conform to Poisson’s distribution. Theresults can be applied to calculate the probability of hydrocarbon reservoir’sdiscovery and to predict the exploration potential of survey region. From theperspective of testing, this paper use Wushi sag as an example. By using thesingle well event’s probability of nine drilled wells and calculating theinfluence value of key factors which are adverse to form the hydrocarbonreservoir in Wushi sag, this paper focuses on the key aspects-poor reservoircondition and absent migration pathway. By applying Poisson’s distribution tostudy the exploration prospect, this study reveals that there is at least onedistrict where commercial gas reservoirs will be discovered in Wushi sag. Inconclusion, the diagnostic model based on Bayesian law provides a new andunique way of thinking to solve the geological problems in complex condition,and it is effective to the petroleum geological knowledge.
KW  - Bayesian Law
KW  - Wushi Sag
KW  - Probability Theory
KW  - Poisson Distribution
KW  - Prospection
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.22399/ijcesen.422691
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/654627
ER  -