TY  - JOUR
T1  - OECD ÜLKELERİNDE PETROL FİYATLARININ EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ:  PANEL NEDENSELLİK ÇALIŞMASI
TT  - The Impact of Oil Prices on Economic Growth in OECD Countries:  Panel Cointegration Application
AU  - Gündoğan, Hilal
AU  - Tok, Dilek
PY  - 2018
DA  - June
JF  - Sakarya Üniversitesi İktisat Dergisi
PB  - Sakarya University
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2147-0790
SP  - 28
EP  - 43
VL  - 7
IS  - 2
LA  - tr
AB  - Petrol, ithalatçı ülkeler için ciddi birmaliyet unsuru iken petrol ihracatçısı ülkeler için önemli bir gelirkaynağıdır. Bu amaçla petrol ihraç eden 22 OECD[1]ülkesinde 1995-2016 yılları arası yıllık veriler kullanılarak ham petrol varilihracat fiyatının ekonomik büyüme göstergesi olarak alınan GSMH ilearalarındaki uzun dönemli ilişki incelenmiştir. Uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığıPedroni (1999), Kao (1999) ve Johansen Fisher eşbütünleşme analizi yardımıyla testedilmiş ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif ilişki olduğu görülmüştür.Daha sonra ekonomik büyüme ve ham petrol varil ihracat fiyatı arasındaki uzundönemli ilişkiyle ilgili çıkarımda bulunabilmek için FMOLS ve DOLS yönetimiuygulanmış ve katsayı her iki yöntemde sırasıyla 0.32 ve 0.30 olarak tahminedilmiştir.
KW  - Ekonomik Büyüme
KW  - Panel Eşbütünleşme
KW  - OECD
KW  - Petrol İhracat Fiyatı
KW  - Panel Eşbütünleşme
N2  - While oil is a seriouscost factor for oil importing countries, it is an important source of incomefor oil exporting countries. For this purpose, the long-term relationshipbetween the GNP and the crude oil prices, which were taken as the indicators ofeconomic growth, were analyzed using the annual data of 22 OECD countries in 22exporting petroleum. For this purpose, the long-term relationship between thecrude oil barrel export price and the GDP, which is considered as an indicatorof economic growth, was analyzed using the annual data in the 22 OECDcountries. The presence of long-term relationship was tested by Pedroni (1999),Kao (1999) and Johanser Fisher by cointegration analysis and a statisticallysignificant and positive correlation was found. Then, FMOLS and DOLS managementwere applied in order to infer the long-term relationship between economicgrowth and crude oil barrel export price and the coefficient was estimated tobe 0.32 and 0.30, respectively, in both methods.
CR  - Abeysinghe, T. (2001) “Estimation of Direct and Indirect Impact of Oil Price on Growth”, Economics Letters, 73:147-153.
CR  - Akıncı, M. vd. (2012) “Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: OPEC ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 31(2):1-17.
CR  - Akıncı, M. vd. (2013) “Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: OPEC ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeler İçin Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(1):349-361.
CR  - Asteriou, D. ve Hall S.G. (2007) Applied Econometrics: A Modern Approach Using Eviews and Microfit Revisited Edition, PalgraveMacmillan, Newyork, ss.373.
CR  - Baltagi, B.H. vd. (2000) “Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels: A Survey”, Center for Policy Research Working Paper No.16, http://www.maxwell.syr.edu/uploadedFiles/cpr/publications/working_papers/wp16.pdf (26.04.2016)
CR  - Berument, M.H, Ceylan, N:B. Ve Doğan N.(2010) “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries”, The Energy Journal, Vol. 31:149-176.
CR  - Breitung, J. (2000) “The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/series/sfb-373-papers/1999-69/PDF/69.pdf (18.05.2016)
CR  - Burbidge, J. ve Harrison A. (1984)  “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions”, International Economic Review, 25(2):459-484.
CR  - Choi,  I. (2001), “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20: 249-272.
CR  - Ferderer, J.P. (1996) “Oil Price Volatility and The Macroeconomy”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(1):1-26.
CR  - GAZBİR (2017) “Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Enerji Durumu”, http://www.gazbir.org.tr/uploads/page/Dunya-ve-Turkiye-Enerji-Gorunumu.pdf 
Gisser, M. ve Goodwin, T.H.(1986) “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: Note” Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 18, No. 1:95-103.
CR  - Göçer, İ ve Bulut Ş. (2015) “Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimlerin Rusya Ekonomisine Etkileri: Çoklu yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme ve Simetrik nedensellik Analizi”, Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 1-28.
CR  - Hadri K. (1999) “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data”, Econometrics Journal, 3:148–161.
CR  - Hamilton, J.D. (1983) “Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, 91(2):228-248.
CR  - Hamilton, J.D. (1988) “Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil-Price Changes Symmetric? : A Comment,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, 28(1):369-378.
CR  - Hamliton, J.D. (1996) “This is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38:215-220.
CR  - Hamilton, J.D. (2003), “What is An Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics, 113:363-398.
CR  - Hooker, M.A. (1996) “What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 39(2):215-220.
CR  - International Energy Agency (IEA). (2001) “World Energy Outlook 2001- Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth”, www.iea.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/weo2001.pdf.
CR  - International Energy Agency (IEA). (2018) “World Energy Balances: Overview”, https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2263?filename=world_energy_balances_2018_overview.pdf
CR  - Im, K.S., M.H. Pesaran veY. Shin (2003) “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115:53-74.
CR  - Iwayemi, A. ve Fowowe B. (2011) “Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria”, Energy Policy, 39:603-612.
CR  - Kao C. (1999) “Spurious  Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90:1-44.
CR  - Kılıan, L. ve Hıcks B. (2013) “Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shocks of 2003-2008?” Journal of Forcasting, 32:385-394.
CR  - Lee, K. ve Ni S. (2002), “On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Study Using Industry Level Data”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49:823–852.
CR  - Levin, A. vd. (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108:1–24.
CR  - Maddala, G.S. ve ShaowenWu (1999),  “Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests With Panel Data and a New Simple Test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue, 61: 631-652.
CR  - Mork, K.A. (1989) “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton’s Results”, Journal of Political Economy, 91:740-744.
CR  - Oh, W. ve Lee, K.(2004) “Energy consumption and economic growth in Korea: testing the causality relation” ,Journal of Policy Modeling,26: 973–981
CR  - Öksüzler, O. ve İpek E. (2011) “Dünya Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(4):15-34.
CR  - Özsağır, A. vd. (2011) “Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin GSYİH Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 1(18):19-28.
CR  - Pedroni P. (1999) “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1999;61:653-70.
CR  - Pedroni P. (2001) “Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels”, The  Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4):727-731.
CR  - Pedroni P. (2015) “Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels’ in Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels”. Published online: 08 Mar 2015; 93-130. Permanent link to this document: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15004-2
CR  - Yanar R. (2014) “Petrol fiyatlarındaki Düşüş ve Ortadoğu Ekonomilerine Etkileri”, Orsam Rapor, 194:1-20.
CR  - Yardımcıoğlu, F. Ve Gülmez A. (2013) “OPEC Ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi”, Sosyo Ekonomi Dergisi, 1:117-140.
CR  - Zivot , E. Ve  Andrews D.W.K.  (1992) “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business&Economic Statistics, 10(3):24-44.
UR  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/sid/issue//440973
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/543598
ER  -