@article{article_473955, title={Determinants of Financial Crises and the Predictability: A Case Study for Turkey}, journal={Ege Academic Review}, volume={13}, pages={113–124}, year={2013}, author={Avcı, Muhammet Ali and Altay, N. Oğuzhan}, keywords={Financial crisis, predictability, regression trees, markov regime switching}, abstract={The aim of this study is to analyze the predictability of financial crises and to determine the leading indicators of these crises in the period of 1990:01-2009:07 for Turkey by using Regression Trees and Markov Regime Switching models. According to the results, in Regression Trees model for predicting financial crises the most significant indicators are; money market pressure index, rate of industrial production to domestic credit, M2/Reserves, inflation, on the other hand in Markov Regime Switching model these indicators are terms of trade, balance of trade, inflation and M2/Reserves. In this context, while the financial crises experienced in Turkey in 1994 and 2001 are successfully predicted, 2008 global financial crisis could not be predicted}, number={1}, publisher={Ege University}