TY  - JOUR
T1  - An approach for Identifying Optimal Solutions for Adapting Agricultural Land Management to Climate Change
AU  - Ahmeti, Alma
AU  - Zyfi, Adriana
AU  - Grazhdani, Spiro
PY  - 2017
DA  - December
Y2  - 2017
JF  - Journal of International Environmental Application and Science
JO  - J. Int. Environmental Application & Science
PB  - Şükrü DURSUN
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 1307-0428
SP  - 277
EP  - 284
VL  - 12
IS  - 4
LA  - en
AB  - In many regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severeimpacts on agricultural systems. As many previous impact studies suggest,yields could decrease, water resources may decline, and erosion risk couldincrease. Climate change is likely to alter agro-climatic conditions withdistinct regional patterns, which necessitates adaptation measures that areadjusted to local characteristics. The objective of this study was to identifyagricultural land management adaptation measures with regard to indicatorsreflecting major aspects of four important agricultural functions: crop yield,soil erosion by water, nutrient leaching, and water use. Changes in landmanagement are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, includingdeclining water resources. Systematic explorations of land managementpossibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted tostudies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. Inthis study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objectiveregional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations toclimate change. We consider two climate scenarios for 2050 in the Lakes Prespawatershed. We designed a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates ageneric crop model in combination with spatial information on soil, climateconditions and slope at a 500 m x 500 m resolution. The results demonstratethat even under the more extreme climate scenario compromise solutionsmaintaining productivity at the current level with minimum environmentalimpacts in terms of erosion and nitrogen leaching are possible. Necessary managementchanges include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportionof early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops,(ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, and (iii) allocation of irrigated areasto soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations. It is concludedthat the potential for climate change adaptation at the regional scale issignificant. Overall, this study shows that negative climate change impacts onagro-ecosystems can be limited to a large extent by adaptation. However, suchadaptation measures are expected to cause a sharp increase in the region’sagricultural water demand. The results could serve as basis for planners anddecision makers to develop suitable regional land use strategies.
KW  - agricultural land management
KW  - climate change adaptation
KW  - CropSys model
KW  - multi-objective regional optimization
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UR  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/jieas/issue//478810
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/567745
ER  -