@article{article_613633, title={Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey}, journal={Sosyoekonomi}, volume={28}, pages={37–47}, year={2020}, DOI={10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03}, author={Akdağ, Saffet and Deran, Ali and İskenderoğlu, Ömer}, keywords={Purchasing Manager’s Index, Istanbul Stock Exchange Industry Index, Industrial Production Index, Capacity Utilization Rates, Granger Casuality, Frequency Domain Causality}, abstract={In this study, the causal relationships of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) with various financial factors are examined. As a result of the analysis, it is determined that the change in the Istanbul-Stock-Exchange-Industry Index (ISEIND) causes the change in the PMI and the changes in the PMI also causes the changes in the Industrial-Production Index (IPI) and the Capacity-Utilization-Rates (CUR). It is also determined that the causality towards to PMI from the ISEIND and causality towards IPI from PMI is valid in the medium- and long-run, whereas the causality towards PMI to CUR are valid for the all periods. According to these results, PMI can be considered as a leading indicator for the real sector. However, the same result does not apply to the financial sector. <br />}, number={45}, publisher={Sosyoekonomi Society}