TY  - JOUR
T1  - Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method
AU  - Kılıç Topuz, Bakiye
AU  - Bozoğlu, Mehmet
AU  - Alhas Eroğlu, Nevra
AU  - Başer, Uğur
PY  - 2019
DA  - December
Y2  - 2019
DO  - 10.34110/forecasting.660377
JF  - Turkish Journal of Forecasting
JO  - TJF
PB  - Giresun University
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2618-6594
SP  - 39
EP  - 46
VL  - 03
IS  - 2
LA  - en
AB  - In 2017, 144countries in the world produced 97.862.928 tons onion at 5.201.591 hectares. Turkey produced 2.1 million tons onion in 68 thousandhectares. Turkey was the seventh-largest producer country of dry onion with ashare of 2,18% in the world. The main aim of this research was to forecast theonion area and production of Turkey for the period of 2019-2026. The data ofthis study was obtained from the database of the Food and AgricultureOrganization and the time series covered the period of 1961-2018. Three ExponentialSmoothing Methods were compared to model onion area and production and HoltExponential Smoothing model was determined as the most appropriate forecastingmodel. In the study, time series data were determined as non-stationary and so,stationarity was obtained after taking the first difference of the time series.Model results show that, in the 2019-2026 period, the forecasted sown area ofonion would be increased from 58.873 hectares to 60.981 hectares, forecastedproduction of onion would be increased from 2.066.453 tons to 2.309.751 tons. Inorder to reduce the effect of Cobweb theorem, onion production should beplanned by producer organizations. Thesupply gap can be avoided by taking appropriate policy measures and this isnecessary to maintain Turkey’s position in the world onion market.
KW  - Onion
KW  - Production
KW  - Sown area
KW  - Exponential Smoothing Method
KW  - Turkey
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.660377
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/921190
ER  -