@article{article_702961, title={FORECASTING WITH REGRESSION ANALYSIS METHOD IN TIME SERIES: BAY LAUREL AND THYME EXPORTS IN TURKEY}, journal={Turkish Journal of Forest Science}, volume={4}, pages={217–228}, year={2020}, DOI={10.32328/turkjforsci.702961}, author={Ersen, Nadir and Akyüz, İlker and Akyüz, Kadri Cemil}, keywords={Bay laurel and thyme exports, forecasting, time series}, abstract={Bay laurel and thyme are products that have an important potential in international trade. According to the average of the last five years, exports in the "ginger, saffron, turmeric (curcuma), thyme, bay leaves, curry and other spices" group reached over 2.5 billion dollars in the world. Turkey has exported over $ 109 million for this product group. A large part of Turkey’s exports over $ 109 million belongs to the bay laurel and thyme. In this study, it was tried to estimate the 2019-2023 period with the help of models created by using the data of the amount of bay laurel and thyme export and the income data obtained from the export in the period of 2010-2018. Each series was evaluated separately. In this context, firstly, it was determined whether the seasonality effect in the series and then, predicted values were obtained by regression analysis. As a result of the study, it was found that the data were seasonally affected. It is expected that Turkey’s bay laurel export volume in 2023 will be about 17.7 thousand tons and it will generate approximately 49.6 million dollars in revenue from these exports. Moreover, it is expected that thyme export and the revenue will be 21 thousand tons and 84.7 million dollars, respectively.}, number={2}, publisher={Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University}