TY  - JOUR
T1  - Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study
AU  - Oruc, Sertac
PY  - 2022
DA  - January
DO  - 10.29137/umagd.868317
JF  - International Journal of Engineering Research and Development
JO  - IJERAD
PB  - Kirikkale University
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 1308-5506
SP  - 246
EP  - 255
VL  - 14
IS  - 1
LA  - en
AB  - This study examines the persistence and long-term correlation of monthly and seasonal rainfall time series of Kırşehir for the period of 1960-2019, with widely used Hurst exponent and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) analyses. Both Hurst exponent and DFA analyses could be used to detect the long-term memory and correlation that can be assessed as a reference of predictability. To support the analyses results Augmented Dickey Fuller and Mann-Kendall tests also applied to time series. Within various rainfall series, evidence of persistence and long-term correlation was identified. According to H exponent values of simple R/S and corrected R/S methods, 10 out of 12 months and winter, spring (only simple R/S), summer (only corrected R/S) and autumn season and according to DFA scaling exponent values 4 out of 12 months and winter and autumn seasons exhibit long term correlation. On the other hand, when the H exponent and DFA scaling exponent values compared only four monthly and two seasonal rainfall series concluded to be consistent with both H exponent and DFA scaling exponent results.
KW  - Hurst exponent
KW  - Persistence
KW  - Detrended Fluctuation Analysis
KW  - Rainfall
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.868317
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1533406
ER  -