TY - JOUR T1 - Brexit: An Emerging Trade Opportunity in MENA TT - خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي: فرصة تجارية جديدة لمنطقة أوكا AU - Kaptan, Savaş AU - Yorulmaz, Recep PY - 2021 DA - November DO - 10.47932/ortetut.931631 JF - Ortadoğu Etütleri JO - JMES PB - Ortadoğu Araştırmaları Derneği WT - DergiPark SN - 1309-1557 SP - 337 EP - 361 VL - 13 IS - 3 LA - en AB - Following the UK’s exit from the EU, many countries–both in the union and outside–have started to gauge its possible impacts on their economies. Simply, the EU countries will be affected negatively since they will be required to do some extra paperwork to be able to import from or export to the UK from now on. On the other hand, non-EU countries have a chance to expand their export to the Kingdom that is looking for improving its trade relations with the countries outside the union. From this point of view, our aim in this study is to investigate how the Middle Eastern and North African countries could benefit from this transition. We have made a sectoral analysis covering these countries to find out which sectors are advantageous in exporting to the Kingdom after the Brexit. It is found that along with the Brexit, automotive sectors in Turkey, Morocco and Tunisia could enhance its export to the Kingdom. For the textile sector, businesses in Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt are likely to increase their exports. In the region, another critical industry is electrical machinery and its equipment in which Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Israel, and UAE have an export potential. When we evaluate all the countries in the region, Turkey seems to have the highest export potential to the UK after the Brexit. KW - Brexit KW - MENA KW - Turkey KW - Export KW - Trade N2 - بعد خروج المملكة المتحدة من الاتحاد الأوروبي ، بدأت العديد من الدول - سواء في الاتحاد أو في الخارج - في قياس آثارها المحتملة على اقتصاداتها. ببساطة ، ستتأثر دول الاتحاد الأوروبي سلبًا حيث سيُطلب منها القيام ببعض الأعمال الورقية الإضافية لتكون قادرة على الاستيراد من المملكة المتحدة أو التصدير إليها من الآن فصاعدًا. من ناحية أخرى ، فإن الدول غير الأعضاء في الاتحاد الأوروبي لديها فرصة لتوسيع صادراتها إلى المملكة التي تبحث عن تحسين علاقاتها التجارية مع الدول خارج الاتحاد. من وجهة النظر هذه ، هدفنا في هذه الدراسة هو التحقيق في كيفية استفادة دول الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا من هذا التحول. لقد أجرينا تحليلًا قطاعيًا يغطي هذه البلدان لمعرفة القطاعات المفيدة في التصدير إلى المملكة بعد خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي. وجد أنه إلى جانب خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي ، يمكن لقطاعات السيارات في تركيا والمغرب وتونس تعزيز صادراتها إلى المملكة. بالنسبة لقطاع النسيج ، من المرجح أن تزيد الشركات في تركيا والمغرب وتونس ومصر من صادراتها. في المنطقة ، هناك صناعة أخرى مهمة وهي الآلات الكهربائية ومعداتها التي تمتلك فيها تركيا ومصر والمغرب وإسرائيل والإمارات العربية المتحدة إمكانات تصدير. عندما نقوم بتقييم جميع البلدان في المنطقة ، يبدو أن تركيا لديها أعلى إمكانات تصدير إلى المملكة المتحدة بعد خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي. CR - Amirah, El-Haddad, “Exporting for growth: identifying leading sectors for Egypt and Tunisia using the Product Space Methodology”, German Development Institute/Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), No. 25, 2018. CR - Belke, Ansgar, and Daniel Gros. “The economic impact of Brexit: Evidence from modelling free trade agreements.” Atlantic Economic Journal, 45, no. 3 (2017): 317-331. CR - Bisciari, Patrick. “A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies.” National Bank of Belgium, Working Paper No. 366, (2019). CR - Bloom, Nicholas, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites. “The impact of Brexit on UK firms.” No. w26218. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019. CR - Bruno, Randolph, Nauro Campos, Saul Estrin, and Meng Tian. “Gravitating towards Europe: an econometric analysis of the FDI effects of EU membership.” CEP technical paper, Brexit analysis 3 (2016): 1-13. CR - Busch, Berthold, and Jürgen Matthes. “Brexit-the economic impact: A meta-analysis.” No. 10/2016. IW-Report, 2016. CR - Dhingra, Swati, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, João Paulo Pessoa, Thomas Sampson, and John Van Reenen. “The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects.” Economic Policy 32, no. 92 (2017): 651-705. CR - Eaton, Jonathan, and Samuel Kortum. “Technology, geography, and trade.” Econometrica 70, no. 5 (2002): 1741-1779. CR - Emerson, Michael. “Which model for Brexit?.” In After Brexit, pp. 167-188. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2017. CR - Hassan, Tarek Alexander, Stephan Hollander, Laurence Van Lent, and Ahmed Tahoun. “The global impact of Brexit uncertainty.” No. w26609. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020. CR - Kohnert, Dirk. “The impact of Brexit on francophone Africa.” Review of African Political Economy 46, no. 162 (2019): 673-685. CR - Krugman, Paul. “Scale economies, product differentiation, and the pattern of trade.” The American Economic Review 70, no. 5 (1980): 950-959. CR - Lawless, Martina, and Edgar LW Morgenroth. “The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU.” Contemporary social science 14, no. 2 (2019): 189-207. CR - “Makine İmalat Sektörü, Türkiye ve Dünya Değerlendirme Raporu”, MAKFED, October 2019, http://makfed.org/images/s/DegerlendirmeRaporu.pdf CR - Mihaela, Simionescu. “The impact of Brexit on the UK inwards FDI.” Economics, Management and Sustainability 3, no. 1 (2018). CR - Sampson, Thomas. “Brexit: the economics of international disintegration.” Journal of Economic perspectives 31, no. 4 (2017): 163-84. CR - Shahbandeh, M. “Textiles and clothing industry in Turkey.” 2 December 2020, https://www.statista.com/topics/4844/textiles-and-clothing-industry-in-turkey/ CR - Sumption, Madeleine, and Denis Kierans, “Work visas and migrant workers in the UK”, Migration Observatory briefing, COMPAS, University of Oxford, UK, (2019). Terazi, Ebru, and Seçil Şenel, “The effects of the global financial crisis on the central and eastern European Union countries”, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2, no. 17, (2011). CR - Tetlow, Gemma, and Alex Stojanovic. “Understanding the economic impact of Brexit.” Institute for government (2018): 2-76. CR - Tyler, Gloria. “Financial services: contribution to the UK economy.” House of Commons (2015). CR - Vandenbussche, Hylke. “Sector-Level Analysis of the Impact of Brexit on the EU-28.” Report for Flanders Department of Foreign Affairs, Belgium (2019). CR - “Automotive - Invest in Turkey”, Investment Office, 10 March 2021. CR - “Brexit: Seven things changing on 1 January”, 28 January 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-54195827 CR - “Brexit: What trade deals has the UK done so far?”, 8 February 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842 CR - “Iran's Economic Update”, World Bank, 9 October 2019, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/publication/economic-update-october-2019 CR - “Morocco: Improving the international competitiveness of the textile and clothing sector”, 15 March 2021. CR - “Moroccan automotive value chain profile and opportunities”, 28 July 2020, https://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/ CR - “Office for National Statistics”, UK, 3 March 2021, https://www.ons.gov.uk/ CR - “Over 100,000 Reported Killed in Yemen War”, ACLED, 31 October 2019. CR - “Textile business Industry in China - Chinese Textile sector import and export overview”, Infomedia, 15 March 2021, https://www.textileinfomedia.com/textile-industry-in-china CR - “Textile Industry in Turkey in 2020”, ERAI Turkey, 12 May 2020, https://eraiturkey.com/news/textile-industry-in-turkey-in-2020/ CR - “The economic context of Malta - Economic and Political Overview - Nordea Trade Portal”, April 2021, https://www.nordeatrade.com/fi/explore-new-market/malta/economical-context CR - “The Precious Metals Industry in Switzerland's Economy”, Institut de macroéconomie appliquée”, 15 March 2021, http://www.asfcmp.ch/pdf/precious-metals-industry-in-switzerlands-economy.pdf CR - “The unprecedented mass protests in Lebanon explained”, 22 September 2020, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/11/lebanon-protests-explained/ CR - “Trade Map”, ITC, 1 March 2021, https://www.trademap.org/ CR - “UK and Japan sign free trade agreement”, UK Government, 23 October 2020. CR - “Yemen-Global Focus”, UNHCR, 9 March 2021, https://reporting.unhcr.org/node/2647 CR - “Why has the Syrian war lasted 10 years?”, 12 March 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35806229 CR - “World Development Indicators-DataBank”, World Bank, 1 March 2021, https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators CR - “What Makes Bangladesh — A Hub Of Garment Manufacturing?”, 18 July 2018. UR - https://doi.org/10.47932/ortetut.931631 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1746923 ER -