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EFFECTS OF MAJOR MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON EMERGING MARKETS BOND INDEX

Year 2013, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 15 - 30, 01.12.2013

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of major macroeconomic fundamentals on emerging market bond index spreads by using a panel of 25 emerging market countries’ bond index spreads and a set of macroeconomic indicators between 2000 and 2009. The findings of the study suggest that there is a positive relationship between bond index spread and foreign direct investment, inflation and a negative relationship between bond index spread and GDP, reserve in total external debt. Major determinants of the emerging markets bond index are determined by using regression analysis based on ordinary least squares method has been applied consisting of fixed effect model, random effect model, but Hausman test showed that fixed effect model is more appropriate.

References

  • BALDACCI, Emanuel, GUPTA, Sanjeev and MATI, Amine (2008) “Is It (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets”, IMF Working Paper, No.08/259, Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-23.
  • BECK, Roland (2001) “Do Country Fundamentals Explain Emerging Market Bond Spreads?”, CFS Working Paper, No. 2001/02, Frankfurt: Center for Financial Studies, pp.1-32.
  • BELLAS, Dimitri, PAPAIOANNOU, Michael G., and PETROVA, Iva (2010) “Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs Financial Stress”, IMF Working Paper, No. 10/281, Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-23.
  • BENGOECHEA, Gonzalo G. (2012) “The Fallacy of Fundamentals: Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in the Eurozone”, (online), http://www.unioviedo.es/ forofinanzas/papers/F3D.The%20 Fallacy %20of%20Fundamentals_%20 Determinants%20of%20Sover_.pdf 07.04.2013, pp.1-23.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier (2004) “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons From Brazil”, NBER Working Paper, No. 10389, pp.1- 35.
  • CHEIKH A. Gueye, and SY, Amadou Nicolas Racine (2013) “U.S. Interest Rates and Emerging Market Bond Yield Spreads: A Changing Relationship?”, The Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 22, No.4, pp. 48-52.
  • COMELLI, Fabio (2012) “Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Estimation and Back-testing”, IMF Working Paper, No.12/212, Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-42.
  • ÇULHA, Olcay Yücel, ÖZATAY, Fatih and ġAHINBEYOĞLU, Gülbin (2006) “The Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets”, Research and Monetary Policy Department Working Paper, No:06/04, Ankara: The Central Bank of Turkey, pp.1-43.
  • EDWARDS, S. (1984) “LDC’s Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation”, American Economic Review, Vol.74, No.4, pp.726-734.
  • EICHENGREEN, Barry, and MODY, Ashoka (1998) “What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?”, NBER Working Paper, No:6408, Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, pp.1-45.
  • FERRUCCI, Gianluigi (2003) “Empirical determinants of emerging market economies’ sovereign bond spreads”, Bank of England, Working Paper no. 205, pp.1-42.
  • FINANCIAL TIMES LEXĠCON (2013) “Definition of EMBI”, (online), http://lexicon. ft.com/Term?term=EMBI, 12.03.2013. GUJARATI, Damodar N. (2002) Basic Econometrics, 6th Ed., New York: Macgraw Hill.
  • JARAMILLO, Laura and TEJADA, C. Michelle (2011) “Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets: Does Investment Grade Matter?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/11/44, pp.1-17.
  • MCCARTHY, Erin (2012) “Emerging-Market Dollar Debt Issuance Hits Record High in 2012”, (online), http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO- 20121231-704622.html, 10.04.2013.
  • MIN, Hong-Ghi. G. (1998) “Determinants of Emerging Market Bond Spread: Do Economic Fundamentals Matter?”, Working Paper in International Economics, Trade, and Capital Flows, No. 1899, Washington: The World Bank, pp.1-31.
  • NEUMEYER, P.A. and PERRI, Fabrizio (2005) “Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The role of Interest Rates”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.52, pp.345-380.
  • NICKEL, Christane, ROTHER, Philipp C. and RÜLKE, Jan C. (2009) “Fiscal Variables and Bond Spreads – Evidence from Eastern European Countries and Turkey”, European Central Bank Working Paper, No. 1101, Frankfurt: European Central Bank, pp.1-43.
  • ÖZATAY, Fatih, ÖZMEN, Erdal and ġAHINBEYOĞLU, Gülbin (2007) “Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads, Global Financial Conditions and U.S. Macroeconomic News”, Economic Research Center Working Papers in Economics, No: 07/07, Ankara: Middle East Technical University, pp.1-29.
  • POGHOSYAN, Tigran (2012) “Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies”, IMF Working Paper, No:12/271, Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-25.
  • SIKLOS, Pierre L. (2011) “Emerging Market Yield Spreads: Domestic, External Determinants and Volatility Spillovers”, Global Finance Journal, Vol.22, No.2, pp.83-100.

BAŞLICA MAKROEKONOMİK GÖSTERGELERİN GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER TAHVİL ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Year 2013, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 15 - 30, 01.12.2013

Abstract

References

  • BALDACCI, Emanuel, GUPTA, Sanjeev and MATI, Amine (2008) “Is It (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets”, IMF Working Paper, No.08/259, Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-23.
  • BECK, Roland (2001) “Do Country Fundamentals Explain Emerging Market Bond Spreads?”, CFS Working Paper, No. 2001/02, Frankfurt: Center for Financial Studies, pp.1-32.
  • BELLAS, Dimitri, PAPAIOANNOU, Michael G., and PETROVA, Iva (2010) “Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs Financial Stress”, IMF Working Paper, No. 10/281, Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-23.
  • BENGOECHEA, Gonzalo G. (2012) “The Fallacy of Fundamentals: Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in the Eurozone”, (online), http://www.unioviedo.es/ forofinanzas/papers/F3D.The%20 Fallacy %20of%20Fundamentals_%20 Determinants%20of%20Sover_.pdf 07.04.2013, pp.1-23.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier (2004) “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons From Brazil”, NBER Working Paper, No. 10389, pp.1- 35.
  • CHEIKH A. Gueye, and SY, Amadou Nicolas Racine (2013) “U.S. Interest Rates and Emerging Market Bond Yield Spreads: A Changing Relationship?”, The Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 22, No.4, pp. 48-52.
  • COMELLI, Fabio (2012) “Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Estimation and Back-testing”, IMF Working Paper, No.12/212, Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-42.
  • ÇULHA, Olcay Yücel, ÖZATAY, Fatih and ġAHINBEYOĞLU, Gülbin (2006) “The Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets”, Research and Monetary Policy Department Working Paper, No:06/04, Ankara: The Central Bank of Turkey, pp.1-43.
  • EDWARDS, S. (1984) “LDC’s Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation”, American Economic Review, Vol.74, No.4, pp.726-734.
  • EICHENGREEN, Barry, and MODY, Ashoka (1998) “What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?”, NBER Working Paper, No:6408, Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, pp.1-45.
  • FERRUCCI, Gianluigi (2003) “Empirical determinants of emerging market economies’ sovereign bond spreads”, Bank of England, Working Paper no. 205, pp.1-42.
  • FINANCIAL TIMES LEXĠCON (2013) “Definition of EMBI”, (online), http://lexicon. ft.com/Term?term=EMBI, 12.03.2013. GUJARATI, Damodar N. (2002) Basic Econometrics, 6th Ed., New York: Macgraw Hill.
  • JARAMILLO, Laura and TEJADA, C. Michelle (2011) “Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets: Does Investment Grade Matter?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/11/44, pp.1-17.
  • MCCARTHY, Erin (2012) “Emerging-Market Dollar Debt Issuance Hits Record High in 2012”, (online), http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO- 20121231-704622.html, 10.04.2013.
  • MIN, Hong-Ghi. G. (1998) “Determinants of Emerging Market Bond Spread: Do Economic Fundamentals Matter?”, Working Paper in International Economics, Trade, and Capital Flows, No. 1899, Washington: The World Bank, pp.1-31.
  • NEUMEYER, P.A. and PERRI, Fabrizio (2005) “Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The role of Interest Rates”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.52, pp.345-380.
  • NICKEL, Christane, ROTHER, Philipp C. and RÜLKE, Jan C. (2009) “Fiscal Variables and Bond Spreads – Evidence from Eastern European Countries and Turkey”, European Central Bank Working Paper, No. 1101, Frankfurt: European Central Bank, pp.1-43.
  • ÖZATAY, Fatih, ÖZMEN, Erdal and ġAHINBEYOĞLU, Gülbin (2007) “Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads, Global Financial Conditions and U.S. Macroeconomic News”, Economic Research Center Working Papers in Economics, No: 07/07, Ankara: Middle East Technical University, pp.1-29.
  • POGHOSYAN, Tigran (2012) “Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies”, IMF Working Paper, No:12/271, Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-25.
  • SIKLOS, Pierre L. (2011) “Emerging Market Yield Spreads: Domestic, External Determinants and Volatility Spillovers”, Global Finance Journal, Vol.22, No.2, pp.83-100.
There are 20 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

This is me

S.m. Zahedul İslam Chowdhury This is me

Yılmaz Bayar This is me

Cüneyt Kılıç This is me

Publication Date December 1, 2013
Submission Date September 8, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2013 Volume: 15 Issue: 2

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