Making Sense of Turkey’s Air and Missile Defense Merry-go-round

Year 2019, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 69 - 92, 02.01.2019

Sıtkı Egeli

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.470640

Cited By: 2

Abstract

At some point during 2013, Turkey’s political authority began to treat the
in-country development and production of long-range air and missile defense
systems as a priority. Soon after, they announced their decision to favor a
Chinese offer that came complete with licensed production and the promise of technology
transfer.  Yet, with this decision came NATO’s
objections and challenges around integration and information security. The 2015
decision to rollback the pro-China decision, and opt instead for the indigenous
development of air and missile defense systems (in close conjunction with a
foreign technological and industrial partner) was triggered by Turkey’s
disillusion with the content of China’s technology transfer package.
Subsequently, this new partner became a team comprising France and Italy; Turkish
industry tied itself to this team in developing Europe’s next-generation missile
defense capability. Then came the Turkish government’s 2017 decision to
purchase off-the-shelf, standalone S-400 systems from Russia. This decision was
an anomaly, and had all the characteristics of a top-down decision cycle
running afoul of technical, operational, and industrial criteria. Turkey’s
political figures have justified the S-400 order by citing the benefits of in-country
production, access to technologies, not to mention the West’s refusal to sell
comparable systems; but these justifications have been refuted by the Russian
side and/or in discordant statements by Turkish institutions, authorities, and
political figures themselves

Keywords

Air defense, missile defense, Turkish defense policy, Turkish defense industry, NATO

References

• Acar, Cemal. “S-400’de hangisi yanacak: kapora mı, F-35 mi, NATO mu?” odatv. Accessed May 9, 2018. https://odatv.com/s-400de-hangisi-yanacak-kapora-mi-f-35-mi-nato-mu-07051815.html.
• AK Parti Ar-Ge Başkanlığı. “S-400 Hava Savunma Sistemi Bilgi Notu.” t24. Accessed January 13, 2018. http://t24.com.tr/files/20180111140447_s-400-bilgi-notu.pdf.
• Egeli, Sıtkı. Füze tehdidi ve NATO füze kalkanı: Türkiye açısından bir değerlendirme. İstanbul: Bilgi Üniversitesi, 2014.
• ———. “S-400 alımı, hava savunması, füze savunması, NATO: mitler ve gerçekler.” Kokpit.aero. Accessed August 2, 2017. http://www.kokpit.aero/s400-sitki-egeli.
• Elekdağ, Şükrü. “Rusya ile yapılan S-400 anlaşması akılcı değil!..” By Uğur Dündar, Sözcü, September 6, 2017. Accessed September 8, 2017. https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2017/yazarlar/ugur-dundar/rusya-ile-yapilan-s-400-anlasmasi-akilci-degil-2000282/.
• Gürcan, Metin. “US, NATO Wait to See if Russia-Turkey Defense Deal Goes Through.” Al-Monitor, August 1, 2017. Accessed August 2, 2017. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/07/turkey-russia-west-missile-defense-system-crisis.html.
• Güvenç, Serhat, and Sıtkı Egeli. “NATO’nun füzesavunma sistemi ve Türkiye.” Ortadoğu Analiz 40 (2012): 19-30.
• Kasapoğlu, Can. “Türkiye’s S-400 Dilemma.” EDAM Foreign Policy and Security Paper 2017/5. Accessed August 1, 2017. http://edam.org.tr/en/turkeys-s-400-dilemma/
• Kasapoğlu, Can, and Sinan Ülgen. “Is Turkey Sleepwalking Out of the Alliance? An Assessment of the F-35 Deliveries and the S-400 Acquisition.” EDAM Foreign Policy & Security 2018/6. Accessed August 15, 2018. http://edam.org.tr/en/is-turkey-sleepwalking-out-of-the-alliance-an-assessment-of-the-f-35-deliveries-and-the-s-400-acquisition/.
• Kılıç, Hakan. “Çin füzesi almalı mıyız?” Kokpit.aero. Accessed April 2, 2015. http://kokpit.aero/hakan-kilic-cin-fuzesi-almali-miyiz.
• Kibaroğlu, Mustafa. “Analiz – NATO’nun S-400 itirazında çifte standart.” Haberler. Accessed July 29, 2017. https://www.haberler.com/analiz-nato-nun-s-400-itirazinda-cifte-standart-9875394-haberi/.
• Kibaroğlu, Mustafa, and Selim Sazak. “Why Turkey Chose, and Then Rejected, a Chinese Air-Defense Missile.” Defenseone. Accessed June 18, 2017. https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/02/turkey-china-air-defense-missile/125648/.
• Korkmaz, Sertaç Canalp, and Arda Mevlütoğlu. “Turkey’s Air Defense Umbrella and S-400.” ORSAM Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies Report No:213, September 2017. Accessed September 27, 2017. http://orsam.org.tr/en/turkey-s-air-defense-umbrella-and-s-400/.
• Özgül, Levent. “DerinKriz: S-400 mü, F-35 mi?” Kokpit.aero. Last updated August 4, 2018. http://www.kokpit.aero/s400-mu-f35-mi.
• Seren, Merve. “Turkey’s Quest for a National Missile Defense System – Prospects and Challenges.” SETA Analysis, 2017. Accessed April 27, 2017. https://setav.org/en/assets/uploads/2017/04/Analysis_26.pdf.
• Stein, Aaron, and Can Kasapoğlu. “Turkey Goes Chinese for Missile Defense.” EDAM Discussion Paper Series 2013/12. Accessed October 21, 2013. http://edam.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Turkey-Goes-Chinese-for-Missile-Defense.pdf.
• Tol, Gönül and Nilsu Gören. “Turkey’s Quest for Air Defense: Is the S-400 Deal a Pivot to Russia?” Middle East Institute Policy Focus 2017-5. Accessed December 12, 2017. http://www.mei.edu/content/turkey-s-quest-air-defense-s-400-deal-pivot-russia.