Exchange Rate Pass-through into Import and Consumer Prices in Turkey

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 1 - 16, 12.04.2022

Ramandray Felıx

Abstract

Bu çalışma, otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) modelini uygulayarak son dönemlerde para birimi bir değer kaybı yaşayan ve ardından enflasyon oranındaki artışın buna eşlik ettiği Türkiye için döviz kurunun ithalat ve tüketici fiyatlarına geçişini ve bu geçişin asimetrik özelliklerini incelemektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, döviz kurunun ithalata ve tüketici fiyatlarına geçişini desteklemekte ve para politikasının ticaret açığıyla mücadeledeki etkinliğine işaret etmektedir. Ancak, enflasyon üzerinde birebir etkisi olduğu dikkate alındığında dış ticaret açığına yönelik döviz kuru kararlarında ihtiyatlı olmak gerekir. Bunun yanı sıra, döviz kurunun tüketici fiyatı üzerindeki etkisinin asimetrik olduğunu destekleyen kanıtlar elde edilmiştir. Liradaki değer kaybının tüketici fiyatları üzerindeki etkisinin değer kazanımlarının etkisinden daha fazla olduğu görülmüştür. Asimetrik analiz, ilgili dönemlerde Türk lirasının önemli değer kaybı göz önüne alındığında, önceki çalışmalara kıyasla döviz kur geçişkenliğindeki artışı açıklayabilir.

Keywords

Döviz kuru geçişi, ARDL, Fiyat

Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import and Consumer Prices in Turkey

Abstract

By applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, this study examines the exchange rate pass-through into import and consumer prices as well as its asymmetric framework for Turkey, which has experienced a recent currency depreciation and then an increase in the inflation rate. The results demonstrate the exchange rate pass-through into import and consumer prices are complete, which suggests the effectiveness of monetary policy to tackle trade deficit. However, the decision to use exchange rate to tackle trade deficit should be taken with caution as it has a one-to-one effect on inflation. Furthermore, the evidence for the asymmetric effect of exchange rate on consumer price is statistically significant. The depreciation of Turkish lira has more effect on consumer price than appreciation does. The asymmetric analysis may then explain the increase in exchange rate pass-through, compared to previous studies, given the significant depreciation of Turkish lira over the concerned periods.

Keywords

Exchange rate pass-through, ARDL, Price

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