Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Gelir Dağılımının Sorunlu Kredilere Etkisi

Year 2024, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 453 - 467, 30.08.2024

İlyas Okumuş , Yücel Ayrıçay , Nur Esra Bekereci

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.1418733

Abstract

The main purpose of the study is to analyze the effects of income inequality on non-performing loans by controlling the effects of other macroeconomic variables for 13 emerging market economies in the 2000–2020 period. In this context, the variables of GDP, unemployment, inflation, domestic credit to the private sector, foreign direct investment and current account deficit were also included in the model and the data were tested with the panel ARDL approach. As a result of the analysis, in emerging market countries, it has been observed that there is a positive and significant relationship between non-performing loans and income distribution in the long run. Therefore, it can be interpreted that income inequality has increased the problem of loans. In addition to these results, a positive and significant relationship was found between non-performing loans and growth, domestic loans to the private sector and unemployment, and a negative and significant relationship between inflation, current account balance, and non-performing loans. In this sense, economic growth, domestic loans given to the private sector, and unemployment rates were the factors that increased non-performing loans apart from income distribution. Finally, the effect of the foreign direct investment variable on non-performing loans was not found to be statistically significant. According to the results obtained, it was observed that the coefficient signs of the variables used in the study were compatible with the literature.

Keywords

Emerging Market Economies, Non-Performing Loans, Income Distribution, Macroeconomic Indicators, ARDL Model

Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Gelir Dağılımının Sorunlu Kredilere Etkisi

Abstract

Çalışmanın temel amacı 2000-2020 döneminde 13 yükselen piyasa ekonomisi için diğer makro ekononomik değişkenlerin etkilerini de kontrol ederek özellikle gelir eşitsizliğinin sorunlu kredilere olan etkilerini analiz etmektir. Bu bağlamda GSYİH, işsizlik, enflasyon, özel sektöre yurtiçi kredi, doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve cari açık değişkenleri de modele dahil edilerek, veriler panel ARDL yaklaşımı ile test edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda; yükselen piyasa ülkelerinde uzun dönemde, sorunlu krediler ile gelir dağılımı arasında pozitif ve anlamlı ilişki olduğu görülmüştür. Dolayısıyla gelir eşitsizliğinin sorunlu kredileri arttığı yorumu yapılabilir. Bu sonuçlara ek olarak sorunlu krediler ile büyüme, özel sektöre yurtiçi kredi ve işsizlik arasında pozitif ve anlamlı, enflasyon ve cari hesap dengesi ile sorunlu krediler arasında negatif ve anlamlı ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu anlamda gelir dağılımı dışında sorunlu kredileri artıran faktörler ekonomik büyüme, özel sektöre verilen yurtiçi krediler ve işsizlik oranları olmuştur. Son olarak doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar değişkeninin sorunlu krediler üzerindeki etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre çalışmada kullanılan değişkenlerin katsayı işaretlerinin literatürle uyumlu bulunduğu gözlemlenmiştir.

Keywords

Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri, Sorunlu Krediler, Gelir Dağılımı, Makroekonomik Göstergeler, ARDL Modeli

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