An Explorative Analysis of Tweets Sentiments for Investment Decision in Stock Markets

Year 2023, Volume: 11 Issue: 3, 174 - 183, 30.09.2023

Emine Ateş Aysun Güran

Abstract

Nowadays lots of researches report that positive or negative social media posts have significant effects on stock market returns. Unfortunately, the number of studies conducted in this context for Turkey is very limited. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship between Turkish tweets and the trend of Bist30 index returns. Correlation analysis is a statistical method used to measure the strength and direction of relationship between two variables. The existence of a correlation between sentiments of financial tweets and the stock market returns may be an indicator that social media can be used as a resource to predict the direction or values of stock markets returns. In this study, the correlation analysis steps are conducted on the polarity scores and changes in Bist30 index returns with all the necessary statistical tests. The contribution of our study is that analyzes are made on a daily, weekly and monthly basis. The experimental results show that there are significant positive correlations between the sentiment polarity values and changes in Bist30 index returns. As a result, this study points out a useful pathway for the future researches to show that social media posts may convey useful information for financial markets.

Keywords

Correlation analysis, sentiment analysis, Turkish tweets, Bist30

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