The Grey Forecasting Modelling and Its Application

Year 2019, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 75 - 81, 30.12.2019

Halis Bilgil Zafer Ozturk Emine Ozgul

https://doi.org/10.29002/asujse.550219

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Grey theory is an effective theory that deals with systems which have imperfect data or weak information. Effective and very accurate estimates can be created for the future by utilizing a small number of data in this theory. The grey modeling method is a sub-branch of the grey systems theory and the modeling process is done by using the related differential equations. The least squares approach plays an important role on accuracy of the results. Using the GM(1,1) modeling method, which is the basis of grey prediction models with its accuracy and usefulness, the tax income to be obtained in the following years are estimated. These estimates are very useful for economic policies, especially for local governments.

Keywords

Grey Estimation Model, Grey System Theory, Forecasting Accuracy, Least Squares Method

Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması

Abstract

Gri teori, zayıf bilgi veya bilgilerin eksik olduğu sistemlerle
ilgilenen etkili bir teoridir. Bu teoride az sayıda veriden faydalanarak
gelecek zamanlar için etkin ve oldukça yaklaşık tahminler
oluşturulabilmektedir. Gri modelleme yöntemi, gri sistemler teorisinin bir alt
dalı olup, modelleme işlemi ilgili fark denklemleri ve diferansiyel denklemler kullanılarak
yapılır. En küçük kareler yaklaşımı sonuçların uygunluğu üzerinde önemli bir
rol oynamaktadır. Kesinliği ve kullanışlılığı ile gri tahmin modellerinin
temelini oluşturan GM(1,1) modelleme yöntemi kullanılarak, Aksaray ilinden
ileriki yıllarda elde edilecek vergi gelirlerinin tahmini yapılmıştır. Bu
tahminler başta yerel yönetimler olmak üzere ekonomik politikalar için oldukça
faydalıdır.

Keywords

Gri Tahmin Modeli, Gri Sistem Teorisi, Tahmin Doğruluğu, En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi

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