sbf dergisi

Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi

0378-2921 1309-1034

Ankara University

10.33630/ausbf.1794254

Macroeconomic Theory

Makroekonomik Teori

Silahlar, Büyüme ve İstikrar: Batı Balkanlar'daki Savunma Harcamalarının Makroekonomik Etkileri ve Türkiye Açısından Önemi

Guns, Growth, and Stability: Macroeconomic Impacts of Defense Spending in the Western Balkans and Their Relevance for Türkiye

https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9945-6393

İsmiç

Betül

03 23 2026

Advanced Online Publication 1 19 10 01 2025 12 29 2025

1943

Ankara University SBF Journal

Balkan ülkelerinde savunma harcamalarının makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri hem akademik hem de politik düzeyde önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışma, konunun Türkiye'nin bölgesel güvenlik ve ekonomik çıkarlarını nasıl etkilediğini değerlendirmek için ekonometrik yöntemler kullanarak stratejik ve ekonomik etkilerini vurgulamaktadır. Beş Batı Balkan ülkesi olarak kabul edilen Arnavutluk, Bosna-Hersek, Hırvatistan, Kuzey Makedonya ve Sırbistan'da savunma harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, 2007-2024 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Swamy'nin Tesadüfi Katsayılar Modeli ve Görünüşte İlişkisiz Regresyon (SUR) modelleri kullanılarak yapılan tahminler sonucunda, savunma harcamalarının Arnavutluk, Bosna-Hersek ve Kuzey Makedonya'da ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumsuz, Hırvatistan ve Sırbistan'da ise olumlu bir etkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

The effects of defense spending on macroeconomic indicators in Balkan countries are significant at both academic and political levels. This study uses econometric methods to evaluate how the issue affects Turkiye's regional security and economic interests, highlighting its strategic and economic implications. The relationship between defense spending and economic growth in five Western Balkan countries—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, North Macedonia, and Serbia—was examined using data from 2007 to 2024. Estimates made using Swamy's Random Coefficients Model and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models concluded that defense spending has a negative effect on economic growth in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, and a positive effect in Croatia and Serbia.

Defense spending Economic growth Swamy’s Random Coefficient Model SUR models

Savunma harcamaları Ekonomik büyüme Swamy’nin Tesadüfi Katsayılar Modeli SUR modeller

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