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The relationship between external debt and economic growth: The example of BRICS-T countries

Year 2023, , 139 - 157, 31.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.58308/bemarej.1221368

Abstract

Although the financing to be provided by the countries for their investments seems to be more of a problem of developing countries, the enrichment experienced in the financial instrument set today pushes the countries to borrow in terms of financing regardless of the level. Although the literature mainly emphasizes that the external borrowing method will have a positive effect on economic growth by creating an increase in national income in the short term, it points out that this effect will turn negative depending on the borrowing structure in the long term.
In this study, the relationship between external borrowing and economic growth was investigated for the period of 1994-2020 in particular for BRICS-T countries. The total GDP of the countries in dollar terms was taken into account to represent the economic growth variable, and the total external debt of the countries in dollars was taken into account as the external debt variable. Hadri-Kurozumi (2012) panel unit root test, Westerlund multiple structural fracture panel cointegration test and FMOLS / DOLS tests were applied to test the model established in the study. As a result of the study; It was determined that the 1% increase in external borrowing positively affected economic growth by approximately 0.93% according to the panel FMOLS forecaster and by approximately 0.95% according to the panel DOLS forecaster.

References

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  • Chowdhury, A. (2001). External debt and growth in developing countries: A sensitivity and causal analysis. WIDER-Discussion Papers. https://epublications.marquette.edu/econ_fac/489
  • Çiftçioğlu, S., & Sokhanvar, A. (2018). External debt- economic growth nexus in selected cee countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/External-Debt-Economic-Growth-Nexus-in-Selected-CEE-%C3%87ift%C3%A7io%C4%9Flu-Sokhanvar/75fb1050517312ec299f484548bd152ae5 2dea17
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  • Erataş, F., & Nur, H. (2013). Dış borç ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: “Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri örneği”. M.U. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 35(2), 207-207. https://doi.org/10.14780/iibdergi.201324465
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  • Hjertholm, P. (1999). Analytical history of heavily indebted poor country (HIPC) debt sustainability targets (s. 46) [Discussion Paper]. Department of Economics University of Copenhagen.
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  • Jayaraman, T. K., & Lau, E. (2009). Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific island countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(2), 272-288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2008.05.001
  • Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. Forgiving a debt overhang. Journal of Development Economics, 29(3), 253-268. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(88)90044-2
  • Le, T., & Phan, L. (2022). The nexus between external debt and growth convergence: Evidence from Asian countries. VNU Journal of Science Economics and Business, 2, 45-57. https://doi.org/10.25073/2588-1108/vnujeb.4829
  • McCoskey, S., & Kao, C. (1998). A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data. Econometric Reviews, 17(1), 57-84. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474939808800403
  • Mensah, Lord, Bokpin, G., & Boachie Yiadom, E. (2018). External debts, institutions and growth in SSA. Journal of African Business, 19, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2018.1452466
  • Mosley, P., Hudson, J., & Horrell, S. (1987). Aid, the public sector and the market in less developed countries. The Economic Journal, 97(387), 616-641. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232927
  • Nazlioglu, S., Lebe, F., & Kayhan, S. (2011). Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6615-6621. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENPOL.2011.08.007
  • Nguyen, T. Q., Clements, B. J., & Bhattacharya, R. (2003). External debt, public ınvestment, and growth in low-income countries. IMF Working Papers, 03(249), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451875904.001
  • Nissanke, M., & Ferranrini, B. (2001). Debt dynamics and contingency financing: Theoretical reappraisal of the hipc initiative. Wıder Development Conference On Debt Relief, Helsinki.
  • Nounamo, H. Y. N., Rachdi, H., & Guesmi, K. (2020). External debt and economic growth in CFA countries: Political institutions matter. International Journal of Current Science Research and Review, 3(3), 14-28.
  • Oliva, M.-A., & Rivera-Batiz, L. A. (2002). Political institutions, capital flows, and developing country growth: An empirical investigation. Review of Development Economics, 6(2), 248-262. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9361.00152
  • Opuş, S. (2002). Dış borçlanmanın sınırı ve Türkiye. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Temmuz-Aralık(19), 183-206.
  • Özyılmaz, A. (2022). Does external debts affect economic growth: The case of E7 countries. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.1111755
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  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JECONOM.2007.05.010
  • Phạm, A., Mai, & Huu Du, N. (2020). The impact of public debt on economic growth of ASEAN + 3 countries. International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, VIII, 87-100. https://doi.org/10.35808/ijeba/571
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Dış borç ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: BRICS-T ülkeleri örneği

Year 2023, , 139 - 157, 31.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.58308/bemarej.1221368

Abstract

Ülkelerin yatırımlarına sağlayacağı finansman daha çok gelişmekte olan ülkelerin problemi gibi görünse de, günümüzde finansal araç setinde yaşanan zenginleşme ülkeleri düzey fark etmeksizin finansman açısından borçlanma yoluna itmektedir. Literatür ağırlıklı olarak dış borçlanma yönteminin her ne kadar kısa vadede milli gelir artışı yaratarak iktisadi büyüme üzerinde olumlu etki yapacağını vurgulamışsa da uzun vadede borçlanma yapısına bağlı olarak bu etkinin negatife döneceğine işaret etmektedir.
Bu çalışmada dış borçlanma ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi BRICS-T ülkeleri özelinde 1994-2020 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Ekonomik büyüme değişkenini temsilen ülkelerin dolar cinsinden toplam Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH)’sı dikkate alınmış, dış borç değişkeni olarak ise ülkelerin dolar cinsinden toplam dış borcu veri kabul edilmiştir. Çalışmada kurulan modelin sınaması için Hadri- Kurozumi (2012) panel birim kök testi, Westerlund çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme testi ve FMOLS / DOLS testleri uygulanmıştır edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda; dış borçlanmada gerçekleşecek %1’lik artışın iktisadi büyümeyi panel FMOLS tahmincisine göre yaklaşık %0.93, panel DOLS tahmincisine göre ise yaklaşık %0.95 oranında olumlu etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.

References

  • Adegbite, E. O., Ayadi, F. S., & Felix Ayadi, O. (2008). The impact of Nigeria’s external debt on economic development. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 3(3), 285-301. https://doi.org/10.1108/17468800810883693
  • Ağır, H. (2016). Türkiye’de dış borçlanma ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin nedensellik analizleri. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 16, 214-231. https://doi.org/10.30976/susead.302143
  • Avramovic, D., Husain, S. S., de Weille, J., Froland, J., Hayes, J. P., & Wyss, H. (1964). Economic growth and external debt. https://policycommons.net/artifacts/1472364/economic-growth-and-external-debt/2126499/
  • Bailliu, J. (2000). Private Capital flows, financial development, and economic growth in developing countries [Staff Working Paper]. Bank of Canada. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/bcabocawp/00-15.htm
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(78)90006-8
  • Başçı Nur, H., & Erataş, F. (2013). Dış borç ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: “Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri” örneği. M.U. Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi, 35(2), 207-207. https://doi.org/10.14780/iibdergi.201324465
  • Bilginoğlu, M. A., & Aysu, A. (2008). Dış borçların ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Temmuz-Aralık (31), 1-23.
  • Choi, I. (1993). Asymptotic Normality of the least-squares estimates for higher order autoregressive integrated processes with some applications. Econometric Theory, 9(2), 263-282. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600007532
  • Chowdhury, A. (2001). External debt and growth in developing countries: A sensitivity and causal analysis. WIDER-Discussion Papers. https://epublications.marquette.edu/econ_fac/489
  • Çiftçioğlu, S., & Sokhanvar, A. (2018). External debt- economic growth nexus in selected cee countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/External-Debt-Economic-Growth-Nexus-in-Selected-CEE-%C3%87ift%C3%A7io%C4%9Flu-Sokhanvar/75fb1050517312ec299f484548bd152ae5 2dea17
  • Çöğürcü, İ., & Çoban, O. (2011). Dış borç ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1980-2009). KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomi̇k Araştırmalar Dergi̇si, 13(21), 133-149.
  • Deshpande, A. (1997). The debt overhang and the disincentive to invest. Journal of Development Economics, 52(1), 169-187. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(96)00435-X
  • Doğan, I., & Bilgili, F. (2014). The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A markov regime switching approach. Economic Modelling, 39, 213-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.02.032
  • Erataş, F., & Nur, H. (2013). Dış borç ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: “Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri örneği”. M.U. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 35(2), 207-207. https://doi.org/10.14780/iibdergi.201324465
  • Evgi̇n, T. (1996). Dış Borçlanma ve dış borçlarımızda yapılan düzenlemeler dış borçlanma: Tanım, amaçları ve sonuçları. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 7(23), 15-33.
  • Fosu, A. K. (1999). The external debt burden and economic growth in the 1980s: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa. Canadian Journal of Development Studies / Revue canadienne d’études du développement, 20(2), 307-318. https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.1999.9669833
  • Glasberg, D. S., & Ward, K. B. (1993). Foreign debt and economic growth in the World system. Foreign debt and economic growth in the World system, 74(4), 703-720.
  • Guris, S., & Komuryakan, F. (2018). KEİ ülkelerinde ekonomik büyüme ile dış borç ilişkisi: Panel nedensellik analizi. Dmitri Yavoninitski 2nd International European Congress on Social Sciences. Kiev, Ukrayna.
  • Gülcemal, T. (2021). Dış borç kullanımı ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye için ekonometrik bir analiz. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 25(Özel Sayı), Art. Özel Sayı. https://doi.org/10.53487/ataunisosbil.892327
  • Hadri, K., & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor. Economics Letters, 115(1), 31-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.036
  • Hjertholm, P. (1999). Analytical history of heavily indebted poor country (HIPC) debt sustainability targets (s. 46) [Discussion Paper]. Department of Economics University of Copenhagen.
  • İdikut Özpençe, A. (2019). The relationship between external debt and economic growth in Turkey Economic & Business Issues in Retrospect & Prospect (pp.123) Publisher: IJOPEC.
  • Jayaraman, T. K., & Lau, E. (2009). Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific island countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(2), 272-288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2008.05.001
  • Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. Forgiving a debt overhang. Journal of Development Economics, 29(3), 253-268. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(88)90044-2
  • Le, T., & Phan, L. (2022). The nexus between external debt and growth convergence: Evidence from Asian countries. VNU Journal of Science Economics and Business, 2, 45-57. https://doi.org/10.25073/2588-1108/vnujeb.4829
  • McCoskey, S., & Kao, C. (1998). A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data. Econometric Reviews, 17(1), 57-84. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474939808800403
  • Mensah, Lord, Bokpin, G., & Boachie Yiadom, E. (2018). External debts, institutions and growth in SSA. Journal of African Business, 19, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2018.1452466
  • Mosley, P., Hudson, J., & Horrell, S. (1987). Aid, the public sector and the market in less developed countries. The Economic Journal, 97(387), 616-641. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232927
  • Nazlioglu, S., Lebe, F., & Kayhan, S. (2011). Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6615-6621. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENPOL.2011.08.007
  • Nguyen, T. Q., Clements, B. J., & Bhattacharya, R. (2003). External debt, public ınvestment, and growth in low-income countries. IMF Working Papers, 03(249), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451875904.001
  • Nissanke, M., & Ferranrini, B. (2001). Debt dynamics and contingency financing: Theoretical reappraisal of the hipc initiative. Wıder Development Conference On Debt Relief, Helsinki.
  • Nounamo, H. Y. N., Rachdi, H., & Guesmi, K. (2020). External debt and economic growth in CFA countries: Political institutions matter. International Journal of Current Science Research and Review, 3(3), 14-28.
  • Oliva, M.-A., & Rivera-Batiz, L. A. (2002). Political institutions, capital flows, and developing country growth: An empirical investigation. Review of Development Economics, 6(2), 248-262. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9361.00152
  • Opuş, S. (2002). Dış borçlanmanın sınırı ve Türkiye. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Temmuz-Aralık(19), 183-206.
  • Özyılmaz, A. (2022). Does external debts affect economic growth: The case of E7 countries. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.1111755
  • Papanek, G. F. (1973). Aid, foreign private ınvestment, savings, and growth in less developed countries. Journal of Political Economy, 81(1), 120-130. https://doi.org/10.1086/260009
  • Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., & Ricci, L. (2002). External debt and growth’ finance and development. A Quarterly Magazine of the IMF, 39(2), 32-35.
  • Pedroni, P. (2000). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels (Department of Economics Working Paper Sy 2000-03). Department of Economics, Williams College. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/wilwileco/2000-03.htm
  • Pedroni, P. (2001). Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4), 727-731.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
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There are 59 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Mehmet Mert Türk 0000-0002-0164-2131

Publication Date July 31, 2023
Acceptance Date July 2, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023

Cite

APA Türk, M. M. (2023). Dış borç ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: BRICS-T ülkeleri örneği. Business Economics and Management Research Journal, 6(2), 139-157. https://doi.org/10.58308/bemarej.1221368

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