beta Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis 2548-0707 Mehmet SONGUR 10.25229/beta.1779994 Panel Data Analysis Growth International Economics (Other) Panel Veri Analizi Büyüme Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer) The Role of Economic Complexity in Reducing the Impact of the Resource Curse: An Analysis of Resource Rents, Investments, and Corruption in BRICS-T Countries Ekonomik Karmaşıklığın Kaynak Lanetini Azaltmadaki Rolü: Kaynak Rantları, Yatırımlar ve Yolsuzluk Açısından BRICS-T Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Analiz https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8119-4908 Doru Ömer Mardin Artuklu Üniversitesi Advanced Online Publication 09 08 2025 03 10 2026 Copyright © 2016, Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis 2016 Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of natural resource rents (NRT) on economic growth in the BRICS countries and Türkiye sample during the period 1995–2021 and to examine the role of economic complexity (ECI) in this relationship. Empirical analysis consists of two complementary models has established using the panel quantile regression method. In Model I, economic growth is explained by the variables of natural resource rents, economic complexity, foreign direct investment, fixed capital investment, and corruption, while in Model II, the ECI x NRT interaction term is added to assess the effect of diversity in the production structure on resource dependence. The findings show that natural resource rents have a continuous and statistically significant negative effect on growth across all quantiles, supporting the resource curse hypothesis. The findings show that natural resource rents have a continuous and statistically significant negative effect on growth across all quantiles, supporting the resource curse hypothesis. In contrast, economic complexity, foreign direct investment, and fixed capital investment have positive effects, while corruption has negative effects. Model II results have shown that economic complexity does not reverse the negative impact of natural resource rents on growth, but it does mitigate this effect. The Kónya (2006) panel causality test has shown that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from natural resource rents to growth, while there is a predominantly bidirectional causal relationship between economic complexity and growth. Overall, the study shows that increasing economic complexity and strengthening institutional structures play a critical role in reducing the negative effects of resource dependency on growth and establishing a more sustainable growth path.

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1995–2021 döneminde BRICS ülkeleri ve Türkiye örnekleminde doğal kaynak rantlarının (NRT) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmek ve bu ilişkide ekonomik karmaşıklığın (ECI) rolünü incelemektir. Ampirik analiz, panel kantil regresyon yöntemiyle kurulan iki tamamlayıcı modelden oluşmaktadır. Model I’de ekonomik büyüme; doğal kaynak rantları, ekonomik karmaşıklık, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, sabit sermaye yatırımı ve yolsuzluk değişkenleriyle açıklanırken, Model II’de ECI × NRT etkileşim terimi eklenerek üretim yapısındaki çeşitliliğin kaynak bağımlılığı üzerindeki etkisi değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, doğal kaynak rantlarının tüm kantillerde büyüme üzerinde sürekli ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir negatif etkisi olduğunu göstererek, kaynak laneti hipotezini desteklemektedir. Buna karşılık ekonomik karmaşıklık, doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve sabit sermaye yatırımları pozitif, yolsuzluk ise negatif etkiler sergilemektedir. Model II sonuçları, ekonomik karmaşıklığın doğal kaynak rantlarının büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini tersine çevirmese de bu etkiyi zayıflattığını ortaya koymaktadır. Kónya (2006) panel nedensellik testi ise doğal kaynak rantlarından büyümeye doğru tek yönlü, ekonomik karmaşıklık ile büyüme arasında ise ağırlıklı olarak çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkilerinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Genel olarak çalışma, ekonomik karmaşıklığın artırılması ve kurumsal yapının güçlendirilmesinin, kaynak bağımlılığının büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerini azaltmada ve daha sürdürülebilir bir büyüme süreci oluşturmada kritik bir rol oynadığını göstermektedir.

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