Dış Ticarette Serbestleştirici ve Korumacı Politikaların Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2, 257 - 287, 30.11.2021

Doğan Keşap , Ali Rıza Sandalcılar

Öz

Neredeyse tüme ulusların ekonomi politikalarında önemli bir yere sahip olan dış ticaret, ekonomi biliminin başlangıcından itibaren ilgi çekici olguların başında olagelmiştir. Dış ticarete dair görüşler, serbest ticaret ve korumacılık olmak üzere iki ayrı eksen etrafında şekillenmiştir. Serbest ticaretin büyüme ve refah etkileri yanında her ülke için benzer sonuçlar verip vermeyeceğine dair endişeler, korumacı görüşlerin giderek yaygın bir hal almasına sebep olmuştur. Bu sebeple, ülkeler açısından hangi dış ticaret politikasının olumlu etkisi olduğunu tespit etmek önemlidir. Özellikle gelişen ülkeler açısından dış ticaret politikası seçimi, ülkelerin kalkınma yolunu da doğrudan etkileyecektir. Bu çalışmada, MSCI Gelişen Piyasalar Endeksi’ndeki 20 ülke için ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaret politikaları arasındaki ilişki analize konu edilmiştir. 2009-2019 yıllarını kapsayan analizde, dış ticaret politikalarının temsilcileri olarak Küresel Ticaret Alarmı dış ticareti serbestleştirici ve dış ticarete zarar verici politika sayısı verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Sistem GMM yönteminden yararlanılan analizde, dış ticarete zarar verici politikaların ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Dış ticareti serbestleştirici politikalar açısından anlamlı bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, korumacılığın ana akım görüşlerle uyumlu şekilde gelişme yolundaki ülkelerde refahı azalttığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış Ticaret Politikası, Serbest Ticaret, Korumacılık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel GMM

The Effect of Foreign Trade Policy on Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis

Öz

International trade, which has an important role in the economic policies of almost all nations, has been one of the most interesting phenomena since the beginning of economics. The opinions on foreign trade have been shaped around two axes: free trade and protectionism. Along with the effects of growth and welfare, concerns about whether it will be achieved similar results for each country have led to the increasing prevalence of protectionist views. For this reason, it is important to determine which foreign trade policy has a positive effect on countries. In particular, to choose the foreign trade policy will directly affect the development path of emerging countries. In this study, the relationship between economic growth and foreign trade policies is analysed for 20 countries in the MSCI Emerging Market Index. In the analysis covering the period of 2009-2019, the Global Trade Alert data on the number of policies of trade liberalising and harmful was used as the proxies of foreign trade policies. It was concluded that the harmful trade policies affect negatively economic growth in the analysis using system GMM method. It was found no significant relationship in terms of trade liberalising policies. The findings show that protectionism, in line with mainstream views, reduces welfare in emerging countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Trade Policy, Free Trade, Protectionism, Economic Growth, Panel GMM

Kaynakça

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