Bilig 1301-0549 2822-6348 Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University 10.12995/bilig.7368 Growth Sustainable Development Regional Studies Büyüme Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Bölgesel Çalışmalar Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Organization of Turkic States: An Environmental Sustainability Perspective Çevresel Sürdürülebilirlik Açısından Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı Ülkelerinde Karbondioksit Emisyonlarını Etkileyen Faktörlerin Değerlendirilmesi https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7581-9972 Baykul Ayşegül SÜLEYMAN DEMİREL ÜNİVERSİTESİ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3998-855X Işık Maden Selen SÜLEYMAN DEMİREL ÜNİVERSİTESİ 04 30 2026 117 71 100 04 11 2023 03 08 2024 Copyright © 1996, Bilig 1996 Bilig

The ongoing climate crisis is one of the most severe threats to ecological, economic, and social development, affecting millions worldwide. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is essential to limit the effects of the global climate crisis. This study aims to assess environmental sustainability by analyzing the impact of key determinants of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Türkiye, the member states of the Organization of Turkic States. According to the results of the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test (ARDL), based on data covering the period 1997–2019, economic growth, energy use in agricultural productivity, and industrialization increase CO₂ emissions, whereas forest area reduces CO₂ emissions in the long run. The findings were evaluated for the aforementioned countries, and corresponding policy implications were presented.

Devam eden iklim krizi dünya çapında milyonlarca insanı olumsuz etkileyen ekolojik, ekonomik ve sosyal kalkınmaya yönelik en ciddi tehditlerden biridir. Küresel iklim krizinin etkilerini sınırlamak için sera gazı emisyonlarının azaltılması önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türk Devletleri Teşkilatına üye ülkeler olan Azerbaycan, Kırgızistan, Kazakistan, Özbekistan ve Türkiye’nin CO2 (Karbondioksit) emisyonlarını belirleyen değişkenlerin etkisi araştırılarak, çevresel sürdürülebilirliğin değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. 1997-2019 dönemi verileri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen çalışmada ARDL (Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Sınır Testi) sonuçlarına göre, ekonomik büyüme ve tarımsal verimliliğin CO2 emisyonlarını artırırken; yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı, sanayileşme ve orman alanlarının uzun dönemde CO2 emisyonlarını azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular söz konusu ülkeler için tartışılarak politika çıkarımlarında bulunulmuştur.

 Organization of Turkic States carbon dioxide emission environment renewable energy sustainability ürk Devletleri Teşkilatı karbondioksit emisyonu çevre yenilenebilir enerji sürdürülebilirlik Al-Mulali, Usama, et al. “Estimating the Environment Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean Countries.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 50, 2015, pp. 918-924. Apergis, Nicholas, et al. “On the Causal Dynamics between Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy, and Economic Growth.” Ecological Economics, vol. 69, no. 11, 2010, pp. 2255-2260. Apergis, Nicholas, and James E. Payne. “Renewable Energy, Output, CO2 Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Prices in Central America: Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel Smooth Transition Vector Error Correction.” Energy Economics, vol. 42, 2014, pp. 226-232. Azomahou, Theophile, et al. “Economic Development and CO2 Emissions: A Nonparametric Panel Approach.” Journal of Public Economics, vol. 90, no. 6-7, 2006, pp. 1347-1363. Baumann, Matthias, et al. “Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Expansion and Intensification in the Chaco.” Global Change Biology, vol. 23, no.5, 2017, pp. 1902-1916. Begum, Rawshan Ara, et al. “Dynamic Impacts of Economic Growth and Forested Area on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Malaysia.” Sustainability, vol. 12, no. 22, 2020, https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229375. Bélaïd, Fateh, and Meriem Youssef. “Environmental Degradation, Renewable and Non-Renewable Electricity Consumption, and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence from Algeria.” Energy Policy, vol. 102, 2017, pp. 277-287. Bengochea-Morancho, Aurelia, et al. “Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in the European Union.” Environmental and Resource Economics, vol. 19, 2001, pp. 165-172. Bilgili, Faik, et.al. “The Dynamic Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption on CO2 Emissions: A Revisited Environmental Kuznets Curve Approach.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 54, 2016, pp. 838-845. Cialani, Catia. “Economic Growth and Environmental Quality: An Econometric and a Decomposition Analysis.” Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 18, no. 5, 2007, pp. 568-577. De Bruyn, Sander M. “Explaining the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Structural Change and International Agreements in Reducing Sulphur Emissions.” Environment and Development Economics, vol. 2, no. 4, 1997, pp. 485-503. Deloitte. “Cop206 Zirvesi Çıktıları.” 24 August 2023, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/tr/Documents/risk/COP26-zirvesi-ciktilari.pdf. Dogan, Eyup, and Fahri Seker. “Determinants of CO2 Emissions in the European Union: The Role of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy.” Renewable Energy, vol. 94, 2016, pp. 429-439. Dong, Feng, et al. “The Process of Peak CO2 Emissions in Developed Economies: A Perspective of Industrialization and Urbanization.” Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 141, 2019, pp. 61-75. EDGAR. “European Commision, Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research.” 2023, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023. EPA. “Global Greenhouse Gas Overview.” 24 August 2023, https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data. EU4Climate. “Azerbaijan.” 31 March 2023, https://eu4climate.eu/azerbaijan/. Franklin, Rachel S., and Matthias Ruth. “Growing Up and Cleaning Up: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Redux.” Applied Geography, vol. 32, no. 1, 2012, pp. 29-39. Friedl, Birgit, and Michael Getzner. “Determinants of CO2 Emissions in a Small Open Economy.” Ecological Economics, vol. 45, no. 1, 2003, pp. 133-148. Fujii, Hidemichi, and Shunsuke Managi. “Which Industry is Greener? An Empirical Study of Nine Industries in OECD Countries.” Energy Policy, vol. 57, 2013, pp. 381-388. Goldstein, Joshua S., and John C. Pevehouse. Uluslararası İlişkiler. Trans. Özdemir, Haluk, Tarcan Matbaası, 2015. Halıcıoglu, Ferda. “An Econometric Study of CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Income and Foreign Trade in Türkiye.” Energy Policy, vol. 37, no. 3, 2009, pp. 1156-1164. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, and Thomas M. Selden. “Stoking the Fires? CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth.” Journal of Public Economics, vol. 57, no. 1, 1995, pp. 85-10 Hossain, Md Sharif. “Panel Estimation for CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Trade Openness and Urbanization Of Newly Industrialized Countries.” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 11, 2011, pp. 6991-6999. Iqbal, Amir, et al. “Investigating the Nexus between CO2 Emissions, Renewable Energy Consumption, FDI, Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries.” Environment, Development and Sustainability, vol. 25, no. 3, 2023, pp. 2234-2263. Im, Kyung So, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Yongcheol Shin. “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels.” Journal of Econometrics, vol. 115, no. 1, 2003, pp. 53-74. Jaforullah, Mohammad, and Alan King. “Does the Use of Renewable Energy Sources Mitigate CO2 Emissions? A Reassessment of the US Evidence.” Energy Economics, vol. 49, 2015, pp. 711-717. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, et al. "CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Trade and Income: A Comparative Analysis of China and India.” Energy Policy, vol. 42, 2012, pp. 450-460. Jebli, Mehdi Ben, et al. “Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: The Role of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Trade in OECD Countries.” Ecological Indicators, vol. 60, 2016, pp. 824-831. Kahia, Montassar, et al. “Impact of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption on Economic Growth: New Evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs).” Energy, vol. 116, 2016, pp. 102-115. Li, Dongxue, et al. “Bio-straw Resource Recycling Systems: Agricultural Productivity and Green Development.” Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 190, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106844. Li, Ke, and Boqiang Lin. “Impacts of Urbanization and Industrialization on Energy Consumption/CO2 Emissions: Does the Level of Development Matter?” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 52, 2015, pp. 1107-1122. Lin, Boqiang, and Mohamed Moubarak. “Renewable Energy Consumption–economic Growth Nexus for China.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 40, 2014, pp. 111-117. Liu, Xuyi, and Junghan Bae. “Urbanization and Industrialization Impact of CO2 Emissions in China.” Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 172, 2018, pp. 178-186. Lo, S. F., et al. “Taking CO2 Emissions into a Country's Productivity Change: The Asian Growth Experience.” The International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, vol. 12, no. 3, 2025, pp. 279-290. Mahmood, Haider, et al. “Industrialization, Urbanization and CO2 Emissions in Saudi Arabia: Asymmetry Analysis.” Energy Reports, vol. 6, 2020, pp. 1553-1560. Mentel, Urszula, et al. “Industrialization and CO2 Emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Mitigating Role of Renewable Electricity.” Energies, vol. 15, no. 3, 2022, https://doi.org/10.3390/en15030946. Menyah, Kojo, and Yemane Wolde-Rufael. “CO2 Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy and Economic Growth in the US.” Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 6, 2010, pp. 2911-2915. Moutinho, Victor, and Margarita Robaina. “Is the Share of Renewable Energy Sources Determining the CO2 kWh and Income Relation in Electricity Generation?” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 65, 2016, pp. 902-914. Musa, Kabiru Saidu, et al. “The Causality between Urbanization, Industrialization and CO2 Emissions in Nigeria: Evidence from Toda and Yamamoto Approach.” Energy Economics Letters, vol. 8, no. 1, 2021, pp. 1-14. NDC. “Azerbaijan.” 2023, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2023-10/Second%20NDC_Azerbaijan_ENG_Final%20%281%29.pdf. NDC “Kazakhstan.” 2023, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2023-06/12updated%20NDC%20KAZ_Gov%20Decree313_19042023_en_cover%20page.pdf. NDC. “Kyrgyzstan.” 2023, https://climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/wherewe-work/kyrgyz-republic. NDC. “Uzbekistan.” 2023, https://climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/wherewe-work/uzbekistan. NDC. “Türkiye.” 2023, https://climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/where-wework/turkiye. Omri, Anis, et al. “Causal Interactions between CO2 Emissions, FDI, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation Models.” Economic Modelling, vol. 42, 2014, pp. 382-389. Parajuli, Rajan, et al. “Incorporating Forests, Agriculture, and Energy Consumption in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach.” Sustainability, vol. 11, no. 9, 2019, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11092688. Pesaran, M. Hashem. “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 22, no. 2, 2007, pp. 265-312. Pesaran, M. Hashem, and Takashi Yamagata. “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels." Journal of Econometrics, vol. 142, no. 1, 2008, pp. 50-93. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo, and Joseph O. Ogebe. “CO2 Emissions, Urbanization and Industrialization: Evidence from a Direct and Indirect Heterogeneous Panel Analysis.” Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 28, no. 6, 2017, pp. 851-867. Raihan, Asif, and Almagul Tuspekova. “Nexus between Economic Growth, Energy Use, Agricultural Productivity, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: New Evidence from Nepal.” Energy Nexus, vol. 7, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2022.100113. REdiCAP. “Report from the Regional Dialogue on Carbon Pricing (REdiCAP) in Central Asia.” 25-26 February 2021. Rehman, Abdul, et al. “Carbonization and Agricultural Productivity in Bhutan: Investigating the Impact of Crops Production, Fertilizer Usage, and Employment on CO2 Emissions." Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 375, 2022, 134178. Sebri, Maamar, and Ousama Ben-Salha. “On the Causal Dynamics between Economic Growth, Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Trade Openness: Fresh Evidence from BRICS Countries.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 39, 2014, pp. 14-23. Shahbaz, Muhammad, et al. “Industrialization, electricity Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Bangladesh.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 31, 2014, pp. 575-586. Shahbaz, Muhammad, et al. “The Effect of Renewable Energy Consumption on Economic Growth: Evidence from the Renewable Energy Country Attractive Index.” Energy, vol. 207, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118162. Sharma, Susan Sunila. “Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Empirical Evidence from 69 Countries.” Applied Energy, vol. 88, no.1, 2011, pp. 376-382. Sikder, Mukut, et al. “The Integrated Impact of GDP Growth, Industrialization, Energy Use, And Urbanization on CO2 Emissions in Developing Countries: Evidence From The Panel ARDL Approach.” Science of the Total Environment, vol. 837, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155795. Talu, Nuran, and Habip Kocaman. “Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliği ile Mücadelede Politikalar, Yasal ve Kurumsal Yapı.” 8 Nisan 2026, http://www.iklimin.org/egitimmateryalleri/TR%20Pol_NT.pdf. Taskin, Fatma, and Osman Zaim. “Searching for a Kuznets Curve in Environmental Efficiency Using Kernel Estimation.” Economics Letters, vol. 68, no. 2, 2000, pp. 217-223. TUİK. “Sera Gazı Emisyon İstatistikleri, 1990-2020.” 23 August 2023, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Sera-Gazi-Emisyon-Istatistikleri-1990-2020-45862. UNDP. “Partnership Actio on Green Economy.” 2023, https://www.undp.org/kyrgyzstan/projects/partnership-actions-green-economy. Waheed, Rida, et al. “Forest, Agriculture, Renewable Energy, and CO2 Emission.” Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 172, 2018, pp. 4231-4238. Wang, DanHui, et al. “Nexus between Agriculture Productivity and Carbon Emissions a Moderating Role of Transportation; Evidence from China.” Frontiers in Environmental Science, vol. 10, 2023, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1065000. Xiong, Chuanhe, et al. “The Relationship between Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Agricultural Economic Growth and Policy Recommendations of a Low-carbon Agriculture Economy.” Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, vol. 25, no. 5, 2016, pp. 2187-2195. Xu, Bin, and Boqiang Lin. “How Industrialization and Urbanization Process Impacts on CO2 Emissions in China: Evidence from nonparametric Additive Regression Models.” Energy Economics, vol. 48, 2015, pp. 188-202. Yang, Hao-Yen. “A Note on the Causal Relationship between Energy and GDP in Taiwan.” Energy Economics, vol. 22, no. 3, 2000, pp. 309-317. Zeb, Raheel, et al. “Causal Links between Renewable Energy, Environmental Degradation and Economic Growth in Selected SAARC Countries: Progress towards Green Economy.” Renewable Energy, vol. 71, 2014, pp. 123-132. Zhang, Ming, and Wenwen Wang. “Decouple Indicators on the CO2 Emissioneconomic Growth Linkage: The Jiangsu Province Case.” Ecological Indicators, vol. 32, 2013, pp. 239-244.