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İran Yaptırımlarının Kaldırılması: Türkiye için Fırsat mı Tehdit mi?

Year 2019, Issue: 89, 95 - 119, 30.04.2019

Sema Ay

https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.8905

Abstract

İran’a yönelik ekonomik yaptırımlar kaldırıldıktan sonra yabancı yatırımcıların ucuz iş gücü ve cazip yatırım teşviklerinin bulunduğu İran’a yönelmesi Türkiye açısından ticari bir tehdit olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Buna karşılık, son yıllarda yapılan ticari anlaşmalar ve özellikle sınır komşumuz olması dikkate alındığında Türkiye, İran ile ticaretini artırması noktasında önemli fırsatlara sahip bulunmaktadır. Bu bakış açılarından hareketle çalışmada, yaptırımların kaldırılmasından sonra fırsatların değerlendirilebilmesi için, Türkiye’nin İran ile olan ticaretinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla, 1990-2016 döneminde, İran’ın Türkiye, Avrupa Birliği (AB), Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD), Rusya ve Çin ile olan ticareti Gravity Modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarından, belirtilen ülkelere kıyasla Türkiye’nin İran ile sınır komşusu olması ve aralarında tercihli ticaret anlaşmasının yapılması sayesinde büyük bir ticari fırsata sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak Türkiye, İran ile ticari alanda sahip olduğu fırsatlarını en iyi şekilde değerlendirilebilmesi için ekonomik ilişkilerini artırarak sürdürülebilir hale getirmelidir. 

Keywords

Ekonomik yaptırımlar İran yaptırımları İran yaptırımları ve Türkiye Gravity modeli

References

  • Anderson, James (1979). “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”. American Economic Review 69 (1): 106-116.
  • Anderson, James and Eric Van Wincoop (2003). “Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle”. American Economic Review 93 (1): 170-192.
  • Askari, Hossein et. al. (2001). “US Economic Sanctions: Lessons from the Iranian Experience”. Business Economics 36 (3): 7-19.
  • Baier, Scott and Jeffrey Bergstrand (2001). “The Growth of World Trade: Tariffs, Transport Costs, and Income Similarity”. Journal of International Economics 53: 1–27.
  • Baldwin, Raymond (1994). “Towards an Integrated Europe”. Centre for Economic Policy Research. London. 1-234.
  • Bergstrand, Jeffrey (1985). “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence”. Review of Economics and Statistics 67 (3): 474-481.
  • Bergstrand, Jeffrey (1989). “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade”. Review of Economics and Statistics 71 (1): 143-153.
  • Bergstrand, Jeffrey (1990). “The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model, the Linder Hypothesis, and the Determinants of Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade”. Economic Journal 100 (4): 1216-1229.
  • Deardorff, Alan (1998). “Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World”. The Regionalization of the World Economy. Ed. J.A. Frankel. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. 7-22.
  • Devarajan, Shantayanan and Mottaghi, Lili (2015). “Economic Implications of Lifting Sanctions on Iran”. World Bank Middle East and North Africa Region (5): 1-46.
  • Dilanchiev, Azer (2012). “Empirical Analysis of Georgian Trade Pattern: Gravity Model”. Journal of Social Sciences 1 (1): 75-78.
  • Ekanayake, E. M., Mukherje Amit and Veeramacheneni Bala (2010). “Trade Blocks and the Gravity Model: A Study of Economic Integration among Asian Developing Countries”. Journal of Economic Integration 25 (4): 627-643.
  • Ghaderi, Elnaz (2015). The Impact of the United States Sanctions on Iran’s Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach. Masters Thesis. Södertörns University.
  • Habibi, Nader (2012). Turkey and Iran: Growing Economic Relations despite Western Sanctions. Brandeis University Crown Center for Middle East Studies. No: 62: 1-8.
  • Hadinejad, Manijeh, Teimour Mohammadi and Sera Shearkhani (2010). Examine the Sanctions’ Efficiency on Iran’s Non-Oil Trade (Gravity Model). Social Science Electronic Publishing. Inc. 1-7.
  • Han, Dong Wook (1999). Gravity Model and Economic Integration. Michigan State University Department of Economics.
  • Helpman, Elhanan and Paul Krugman (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade. Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
  • Helpman, Elhanan, Marc Melitz and Yona Rubinstein (2008). “Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (2): 441-487.
  • index mundi, www.indexmundi.com (Accessed: 20.03.2017).
  • Khiyavi, Parisa Khaligh, Reza Moghaddasi and Saeed Yazdani (2013). “Investigation of Factors Affecting the International Trade of Agricultural Products in Developing Countries”. Life Science Journal 10 (3): 409-414.
  • Krugman, Paul (1979). “Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade”. Journal of International Economics 9: 469-479.
  • Leamer, Edward and Robert Stern (1971). “Quantitative International Economics”. Journal of International Economics (1): 359-361.
  • Linnemann, Hans (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland Pub. Co.
  • Melitz, Marc (2003). “The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity”. Econometrica 71 (6): 1695-1725.
  • Nasiri, Naser and Asl Saeid H. Hassani (2013). “Assessment of IRAN’s International Trade Potential (A Gravity Model Analysis)”. Reef Resources Assessment and Management Technical Paper 38 (5): 398-409.
  • Nitsch, Volker (2000). “National Borders and International Trade: Evidence from the European Union”. Canadian Journal of Economics 33 (4): 1091-1105.
  • Özçelik, Mehmet (2017). Türkiye Cumhuriyeti ile İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Arasındaki Tercihli Ticaret Anlaşması. www.kto.org.tr/d/file/iran_tercihli_ticaret_anlasmasi.docx (Accessed: 27.03.2017).
  • Shirazi, Homayoun, Azarbaiejani Karim and Sameti Morteza (2016). “The Effect of Economic Sanctions on Iran’s Export”. Iran Economic Review 20 (1): 111-124.
  • Pöynöhen, Pentti (1963). “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”. Weltwirtschaftliches Archive 90: 93-100.
  • Santos Silva, Joao and Tenreyro Silvana (2006). “The Log of Gravity”. Review of Economics and Statistics 88: 641-658.
  • Soori, Amir Reza and Ahmad Tashkini (2012). “Gravity Model: An Application to Trade between Iran and Regional Blocs”. Iranian Economic Review 16 (31):1-12.
  • Tinbergen, Jan (1962). Shaping the World Economy. Twentieth Century Fund. New York. Torbat, Akbar (2005). “Impacts of the US Trade and Financial Sanctions on Iran”. The World Economy 28 (3): 407-434.
  • Trade-European Comission (2017). trade.ec.europe.eu (Accessed: 10.06.2017).
  • Turkborsa (2015). http://www.turkborsa.net/belgeler/raporlar/ heryonuyleirandosyasiagustos2015.pdf (Accessed: 25.03.2017).
  • Turkish Statistical Institute-Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. www.tuik.gov.tr (Accessed: 20.03.2017).
  • Turkish Exporters Assembly-Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi (2016). Ambargo Sonrası İran Ekonomik ve Ticari Etki Analizi Analizi Projesi.
  • Turkish Exporters Assembly-Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi. www.tim.gov.tr (Accessed:22.09.2017).

Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?

Year 2019, Issue: 89, 95 - 119, 30.04.2019

Sema Ay

https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.8905

Abstract

After the removal of sanctions against Iran, foreign investors’ interest in Iran, where cheap labor force and attractive investment incentives are located, is regarded as a commercial threat for Turkey. Conversely, Turkey has important opportunities to increase its trade with Iran due shared borders and their trade agreements. In view of this perspective, it is aimed to examine Turkey’s trade with Iran in order to evaluate the opportunities after the removal of sanctions. For this purpose, Iranian trade with Turkey, European Union (EU), United States (USA), Russia and China have been examined using Gravity Model for 1990-2016 period. It has seen that Turkey has a great commercial opportunity compared to the countries mentioned from the analysis results. The analyses have indicated that it is necessary for Turkey to increase its economic relations in order to be able to evaluate its trade opportunities with Iran.

Keywords

Sanctions Iran sanctions Iran sanctions and Turkey Gravity model

References

  • Anderson, James (1979). “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”. American Economic Review 69 (1): 106-116.
  • Anderson, James and Eric Van Wincoop (2003). “Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle”. American Economic Review 93 (1): 170-192.
  • Askari, Hossein et. al. (2001). “US Economic Sanctions: Lessons from the Iranian Experience”. Business Economics 36 (3): 7-19.
  • Baier, Scott and Jeffrey Bergstrand (2001). “The Growth of World Trade: Tariffs, Transport Costs, and Income Similarity”. Journal of International Economics 53: 1–27.
  • Baldwin, Raymond (1994). “Towards an Integrated Europe”. Centre for Economic Policy Research. London. 1-234.
  • Bergstrand, Jeffrey (1985). “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence”. Review of Economics and Statistics 67 (3): 474-481.
  • Bergstrand, Jeffrey (1989). “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade”. Review of Economics and Statistics 71 (1): 143-153.
  • Bergstrand, Jeffrey (1990). “The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model, the Linder Hypothesis, and the Determinants of Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade”. Economic Journal 100 (4): 1216-1229.
  • Deardorff, Alan (1998). “Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World”. The Regionalization of the World Economy. Ed. J.A. Frankel. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. 7-22.
  • Devarajan, Shantayanan and Mottaghi, Lili (2015). “Economic Implications of Lifting Sanctions on Iran”. World Bank Middle East and North Africa Region (5): 1-46.
  • Dilanchiev, Azer (2012). “Empirical Analysis of Georgian Trade Pattern: Gravity Model”. Journal of Social Sciences 1 (1): 75-78.
  • Ekanayake, E. M., Mukherje Amit and Veeramacheneni Bala (2010). “Trade Blocks and the Gravity Model: A Study of Economic Integration among Asian Developing Countries”. Journal of Economic Integration 25 (4): 627-643.
  • Ghaderi, Elnaz (2015). The Impact of the United States Sanctions on Iran’s Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach. Masters Thesis. Södertörns University.
  • Habibi, Nader (2012). Turkey and Iran: Growing Economic Relations despite Western Sanctions. Brandeis University Crown Center for Middle East Studies. No: 62: 1-8.
  • Hadinejad, Manijeh, Teimour Mohammadi and Sera Shearkhani (2010). Examine the Sanctions’ Efficiency on Iran’s Non-Oil Trade (Gravity Model). Social Science Electronic Publishing. Inc. 1-7.
  • Han, Dong Wook (1999). Gravity Model and Economic Integration. Michigan State University Department of Economics.
  • Helpman, Elhanan and Paul Krugman (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade. Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
  • Helpman, Elhanan, Marc Melitz and Yona Rubinstein (2008). “Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (2): 441-487.
  • index mundi, www.indexmundi.com (Accessed: 20.03.2017).
  • Khiyavi, Parisa Khaligh, Reza Moghaddasi and Saeed Yazdani (2013). “Investigation of Factors Affecting the International Trade of Agricultural Products in Developing Countries”. Life Science Journal 10 (3): 409-414.
  • Krugman, Paul (1979). “Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade”. Journal of International Economics 9: 469-479.
  • Leamer, Edward and Robert Stern (1971). “Quantitative International Economics”. Journal of International Economics (1): 359-361.
  • Linnemann, Hans (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland Pub. Co.
  • Melitz, Marc (2003). “The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity”. Econometrica 71 (6): 1695-1725.
  • Nasiri, Naser and Asl Saeid H. Hassani (2013). “Assessment of IRAN’s International Trade Potential (A Gravity Model Analysis)”. Reef Resources Assessment and Management Technical Paper 38 (5): 398-409.
  • Nitsch, Volker (2000). “National Borders and International Trade: Evidence from the European Union”. Canadian Journal of Economics 33 (4): 1091-1105.
  • Özçelik, Mehmet (2017). Türkiye Cumhuriyeti ile İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Arasındaki Tercihli Ticaret Anlaşması. www.kto.org.tr/d/file/iran_tercihli_ticaret_anlasmasi.docx (Accessed: 27.03.2017).
  • Shirazi, Homayoun, Azarbaiejani Karim and Sameti Morteza (2016). “The Effect of Economic Sanctions on Iran’s Export”. Iran Economic Review 20 (1): 111-124.
  • Pöynöhen, Pentti (1963). “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”. Weltwirtschaftliches Archive 90: 93-100.
  • Santos Silva, Joao and Tenreyro Silvana (2006). “The Log of Gravity”. Review of Economics and Statistics 88: 641-658.
  • Soori, Amir Reza and Ahmad Tashkini (2012). “Gravity Model: An Application to Trade between Iran and Regional Blocs”. Iranian Economic Review 16 (31):1-12.
  • Tinbergen, Jan (1962). Shaping the World Economy. Twentieth Century Fund. New York. Torbat, Akbar (2005). “Impacts of the US Trade and Financial Sanctions on Iran”. The World Economy 28 (3): 407-434.
  • Trade-European Comission (2017). trade.ec.europe.eu (Accessed: 10.06.2017).
  • Turkborsa (2015). http://www.turkborsa.net/belgeler/raporlar/ heryonuyleirandosyasiagustos2015.pdf (Accessed: 25.03.2017).
  • Turkish Statistical Institute-Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. www.tuik.gov.tr (Accessed: 20.03.2017).
  • Turkish Exporters Assembly-Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi (2016). Ambargo Sonrası İran Ekonomik ve Ticari Etki Analizi Analizi Projesi.
  • Turkish Exporters Assembly-Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi. www.tim.gov.tr (Accessed:22.09.2017).
There are 37 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Sema Ay 0000-0002-8392-3788

Publication Date April 30, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Issue: 89

Cite

APA Ay, S. (2019). Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?. Bilig(89), 95-119. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.8905
AMA Ay S. Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?. Bilig. April 2019;(89):95-119. doi:10.12995/bilig.8905
Chicago Ay, Sema. “Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?”. Bilig, no. 89 (April 2019): 95-119. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.8905.
EndNote Ay S (April 1, 2019) Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?. Bilig 89 95–119.
IEEE S. Ay, “Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?”, Bilig, no. 89, pp. 95–119, April 2019, doi: 10.12995/bilig.8905.
ISNAD Ay, Sema. “Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?”. Bilig 89 (April 2019), 95-119. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.8905.
JAMA Ay S. Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?. Bilig. 2019;:95–119.
MLA Ay, Sema. “Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?”. Bilig, no. 89, 2019, pp. 95-119, doi:10.12995/bilig.8905.
Vancouver Ay S. Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?. Bilig. 2019(89):95-119.
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