Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Enerji Fiyatları, Döviz Kuru ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Türk Cumhuriyetleri için Dinamik Etkiler

Year 2025, Issue: 112, 63 - 104, 31.01.2025
https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.7933

Abstract

Avrasya ekonomilerinde enerji, mal ve finans piyasaları arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler henüz ampirik olarak analiz edilmemiştir. Bu çalışma literatürdeki bu boşluğu ele almaya çalışmaktadır. Çalışma, Türkiye, Azerbaycan, Kazakistan, Kırgızistan ve Özbekistan'da enerji (petrol ve doğalgaz) fiyatları, enflasyon oranı ve döviz kuru arasındaki dinamik ilişkileri, Ocak 2010-Nisan 2022 dönemini kapsayacak şekilde, Toda ve Yamamoto’nun Granger nedensellik yaklaşımı, etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırmaları aracılığıyla incelemektedir. Ampirik bulgular (i) enflasyonun esas olarak doğal gaz fiyatlarından kaynaklandığını, (ii) petrol fiyatlarının doğal gaz fiyatları aracılığıyla enflasyona neden olduğunu, (iii) döviz kurunun enflasyona geçişkenliğinin ülkeye özgü olduğunu ve (iv) enerji fiyatları ile döviz kurları arasında zayıf bir bağımlılık olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Fourier Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımına dayalı nedensellik analizinde yumuşak yapısal kırılmaların hesaba katılması bu bulguları güçlendirmektedir.
JEL kodları: C10, O1, Q43

References

  • Abounoori, Abbas Ali, et al. “Oil Price Pass-Through into Domestic Inflation: The Case of Iran.” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 4, no. 4, 2014, pp. 662-669.
  • Adıgüzel, Uğur, et al. “Oil Prices and Exchange Rates in Brazil, India and Türkiye: Time and Frequency Domain Causality Analiysis.” Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 1, no. 1, 2013, pp. 49-73.
  • Ağayev, Seymur. “Azerbaycan’da Fiyatlar Genel Düzeyi ve Döviz Kuru İlişkisi.” H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 29, no. 1, 2011, pp. 1-19.
  • Ağazade, Seymur. “Petrol Fiyatları ve Kazakistan Reel Döviz Kuru: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı.” bilig, no. 94, 2020, pp. 217-248.
  • Ağazade, Seymur. “Reel Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisinde Asimetri: Azerbaycan Örneğinde Bir İnceleme.” UİİİD-İJEAS, Özel Sayı, 2018, pp. 113-126.
  • Akhundzada, Gumru. “Enerji Fiyat Değişimlerinin Azerbaycan’ın Cari İşlemler Dengesi Açığına Etkisi.” Uluslararası Türk Dünyası Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 2, 2023, pp. 1-20.
  • Akram, Q. Farooq. “Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Norwegian Evidence.” Econometrics Journal, vol. 7, 2004, pp. 476-504.
  • Aleisa, Eisa, A., and Sel Dibooğlu. “Sources of Real Exchange Rate Movements in Suudi Arabia.” Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 26, no.1, 2002, pp. 101-110.
  • Altemur, Necati. “Petrol Fiyatları ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği.” Malatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi İşletme ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 1, 2023, pp. 66-77.
  • Altıntaş, Halil. “Petrol Fiyatlarının Gıda Fiyatlarına Asimetrik Etkisi: Türkiye için NARDL Modeli Uygulaması.” Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 14, no. 4, 2016, pp. 1-24.
  • Amano, R. A., and S. van Norden. “Oil Prices and The Rise and Fall of The US Real Exchange Rate.” Journal of International Money and Finance, no. 17, 1998, pp. 299-316.
  • Amanov, Shatlyk. ABD’nin Avrasya Politikaları. Gökkubbe Yayınları, 2007.
  • Babak, Vladimir. “Neftegazovyy Sektor Kazakhstana.” Orta Asya ve Kafkaz, vol. 4, no. 46, 2006, pp. 50-66.
  • Balcılar, Mehmet et al. “Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Casual Nexus Viewed Through a Bootstrap Rolling Window.” Energy Economics, vol. 32, no. 6, 2010, pp. 1398-1410.
  • Bass, Alexander. “Do Oil Shock Matter for Inflation Rate in Russia: An Empirical Study of Imported Inflation Hypothesis.” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 9, no. 2, 2019, pp. 288-294.
  • Baum, Christopher, et al. “Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, no. 19, 2004, pp. 1-23.
  • Benhmad, François. “Modeling Nonlinear Granger Causality between the Oil Price and U.S. Dollar: A Wavelet Based Approach.” Economic Modelling, no. 29, 2012, pp. 1505-1514.
  • Berument, M. Hakan, et al. “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries.” The Energy Journal, vol. 31, no. 1, 2010, pp. 149-176.
  • Bigerna, Simona. “Energy Price Shocks, Exchange Rates and Inflation Nexus.” Energy Economics, no. 128, 2023, pp. 1-18.
  • BP. “Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2017.” 25.09.2023, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-worldenergy.html.
  • Brauer, Birgit. “Kazakhstan’s Economic Challenges: How to Manage the Oil Boom?” Transition Studies Review, vol. 14, no. 1, 2007, pp. 188-194.
  • Bridgman, Benjamin, et al. “Threatening to Increase Productivity: Evidence from Brazil’s Oil Industry.” World Development, vol. 39, no. 8, 2011, pp. 1372-1385.
  • Bruegel. “Real Effective Exchange Rates.” 10.10.2023, https://www.bruegel.org/publications/datasets/real-effective-exchange-rates-for-178-countries-anew-database.
  • Burbidge, John, and Alan Harrison. “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises using Vector Autoregressions.” International Economic Review, vol. 25, no. 2, 1984, pp. 459-484.
  • Castro, Cesar, and Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez. “Dynamic Interactions between Oil Price and Exchange Rate.” PloS One, vol. 15, no. 8, 2020, pp. 1-20.
  • Çetin, Işın, and Mustafa Sevüktekin. “Bir Geçiş Ülkesi Olan Kırgızistan Ekonomisinin Analizi: Gelecekten Beklentiler.” Akademik Bakış Uluslararası Hakemli Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, no. 38, 2013, pp 1-21.
  • Chaudhuri, Kausik, and Betty C. Daniel. “Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates and Oil Prices.” Economics Letters, no. 58, 1998, pp. 231-238.
  • Chen, Shiu-Sheng, and Hung-Chyn Chen. “Oil Prices and Exchange Rates.” Energy Economics, no. 29, 2007, pp. 390-404.
  • Çınar, Burak. “Tarihte Üçüncü Güç ve Orta Asya Enerji Savaşları.” Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 4, 2008, pp. 21-43.
  • Coudert, Virginie, et al. “Oil Price and The Dollar.” Energy Studies Review, vol. 15, no. 2, 2008, pp. 45-58.
  • Cunado, J., and F. Perez de Gracia. “Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries.” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, no. 45, 2005, pp. 65-83.
  • Cusup, Pirimbaev, et al. “Enerjinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Kırgızistan Ekonomisi için ARDL Sınır Testi.” Reforma, vol. 3, no. 87, 2020, pp. 48-63.
  • Dai, Zhifeng, et al. “Dynamic Spillover Effects and Portfolio Strategies Between Crude Oil, Gold and Chinese Stock Markets Retaled to New Energy Vehicle.” Energy Economics, no. 109, 2022, Article 105959, pp. 1-12.
  • DEİK (Dış Ekonomik İlişkiler Kurulu). Kırgızistan Ülke Bülteni. 10.10.2023, http://www.deik.org.tr/Contents/FileAction/2627.
  • Demir, Yusuf. “Küresel Enerji ve Gıda Fiyatlarının Türkiye’de Enflasyona Etkisinin Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizliyle İncelenmesi.” Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 33, 2022, pp. 189-203.
  • Demirtepe, M. Turgut. Orta Asya ve Kafkasya’da Güç Politikası. USAK Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Dickey, D., and W. Fuller. “Distribution of The Estimator for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, no. 74, 1979, pp. 427-431.
  • Ding, Yueting, et al. “Resilience Assessment of Chine’s Natural Gas System Under Supply Shortages: A System Dynamics Approach.” Energy, no. 247, 2022, pp. 1-12.
  • Dolado, Juan. J., and Helmut Lütkepohl. “Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems.” Econometric Reviews, vol. 15, no. 4, 1996, pp. 369-386.
  • Duygulu, Aylin Abuk. “Döviz Kuru İstikrarının Ekonomik İstikrar Açısından Değerlendirilmesi.” D.E.Ü İİBF Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 1, 1998, pp. 107-118.
  • Dzhantureeva, Elvira. “Neftegazovıy Kompleks: Zapasy, Dobyça, Investitsii [Petrol ve Gaz Kompleksi: Rezervler, Üretim, Yatırımlar].” Kazakhstan Business Magazine, no. 5, 2014, pp. 18-22.
  • Emami, Karim, and Mehdi Adippour. “Oil Income Shocks and Economic Growth in Iran.” Economic Modelling, vol. 29, no. 5, 2012, pp. 1774-1779.
  • Energy Information Administration (EİA). “Sources and Uses.” 10.10.2023, https://www.eia.gov/.
  • Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, and Gunther Markwardt. “The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy.” Energy Economics, vol. 31, no. 1, 2009, pp. 134-151.
  • Ganiev, Junus, and Baigonus Damira. “Kırgızistan’da Dış Açık Sorunu.” Reforma, vol. 1, no. 77, 2018, pp. 18-26.
  • Ganikhodjaev, Saidazim. “Regulating System of Foreign Trade in Uzbekistan at the Transitional Period.” Economic journal of Hokkaido University, no. 33, 2004, pp. 205-219.
  • Gisser, Micha, and Thomas H. Goodwin. “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: Note.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 18, no. 1, 1986, pp. 95-103.
  • Guliyev, Farid. “The Contract of the Century’20 Years After.” SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2498276.
  • Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser. “Export Performance and Economic Growth Nexus in Japan: A Bootstrap Approach.” Japan and Word Economy, vol. 14, no. 1, 2002, pp. 25-33.
  • Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan, and Hooi Hooi Lean. “Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Disaggregation Price Inflation.” Resources Policy, no. 73, 2021, pp. 1-11.
  • Ibpus. Uzbekistan: Mineral, Mining Sector Investment and Business Guide. USA International Business Publications, 2013 IMF (International Monetary Fund). “IMF Data.” 10.10.2023, https://www.imf.org/en/Data.
  • Indjehagopian, J.P, et al. “Dynamics of Heating Oil Market Prices in Europe.” Energy Economics, no. 22, 2000, pp. 225-252.
  • Kalyoncu, Hüseyin, and Shatlyk Amanov. “Orta Asya Enerji Kaynakları ve Enerji Bağlamında ABD’nin Orta Asya Politikası.” Çağ Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 2, 2010, pp. 38-71.
  • Karenov, Rashit S. “Sovremennoe Sostoyanie i Prioritetnye Zadachi Razvitiya v Perspektive Neftyanoy Otrasli v Mire i Kazakhstane” [Dünyadaki ve Kazakistan’daki Petrol Endüstrisinin Gelişimin Mevcut Durum ve Öncelikli Görevleri]. Karaganda Üniversitesi Vestnik Dergisi, vol. 3, no. 79, 2015, pp. 5-18.
  • Karimli, Tural, et al. “Oil Price Pass-Through into Inflation: The Evidence from Oil Exporting Countries.” Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies International Economics Department Working Paper Series, no. IHEIDWP01, 2016, pp. 1-24.
  • Karluk, S. Rıdvan. Küresel Krizin Kırgızistan Ekonomisine Etkisi ve Türkiye Kırgızistan Ekonomik İlişkilerindeki Gelişmeler. Eskişehir, 2014.
  • Kartal, Gökhan. “Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Enflasyon ile Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 10, no. 1, 2023, pp. 28-56.
  • Statistical Committee of Kazakhstan. “Kazakistan 2016’da.” 08.10.2023, http://www.stat.gov.kz.
  • Koçak, Sultan, et al. “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Petrol Fiyatları ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Ampirik Analiz.” Journal of Life Economics, vol. 4, no. 4, 2017, pp. 261-273.
  • Korhonen, Iikka, and Tuuli Juurikkala. “Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries.” Journal of Economics and Finance, no. 33, 2009, pp. 71-79.
  • Kutan, Ali M., and Michael L. Wyzan. “Explaining The Real Exchange Rate in Kazakhstan, 1996-2003: Is Kazakhstan Vulnerable to The Dutch Disease?” Economic Systems, no. 29, 2005, pp. 242-255.
  • Kwiatkowski, Denis, et al. “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root.” Journal of Econometrics, no. 54, 1992, pp. 159-178.
  • Mensi, Walid, et al. “Extreme Quantile Spillovers and Connectedness Between Oil and Chinese Sector Markets: A Portfolio Hedging Analysis.” The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, no. 28, 2023, pp. 1-18.
  • Musin, Asılbek. “Strukturnoye Kachestvo Ekonomiki Kazakhstana Cherez Prizmu Sovremennykh Podkhodov k Sotsial’no-Ekonomicheskomu Razvitiyu.” [Structural Quality of Kazakshstan’s Economy through the Prism of Modern Approaches to Socio-Economic Development]. Transport Business in Russia, no. 6, 2012, pp. 236-240.
  • Narin, Müslüme. “Avrasya Bölgesindeki Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin Enerji Kaynakları ve İletim Hatlarının Türkiye’ye Katkıları.” Türk Dünyası İncelemeleri Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 1, 2006, pp. 151-167.
  • Nazlioglu, Saban, et al. “Oil Prices and Real Estate İnvestment Trusts (REİTs): Gradual-Shift Casuality and Volatility Transmission Analysis.” Energy Economics, no. 60, 2016, pp. 168-175.
  • Nazlioglu, Saban, et al. “Oil Prices and Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Structural Shifts in Causal Linkages.” Emerging Markets and Finance and Trade, vol. 55, no. 1, 2019, pp. 105-117.
  • Öksüzler, Oktay, and Evren İpek. “Dünya Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 14, 2011, pp. 15-34.
  • Ölmezoğulları, Nalan, and Gulnaz Aldibekova. “Kazakistan Ekonomisinde Petrolün Rolü.” Uludağ Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 19, no. 35, 2018, pp. 669-705.
  • Olomola, Philp A., and Akintoye V. Adejumo. “Oil Price Shock and Macroeconomic Activities in Nigeria.” International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, no. 3, 2006, pp. 28-34.
  • Özdamar, Gökhan. “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Döviz Kuru Geçiş Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı Bulguları.” Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, no. 32, 2015, pp. 66-97.
  • Özdemir, Abdullah, and Fatma Yüksel. “Türkiye’de Enerji Sektörünün İleri ve Geri Bağlantı Etkileri.” Yönetim ve Ekonomi, vol. 13, no. 2, 2006, pp. 1-18.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., and P. Perron. “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression.” Biometrika, no. 75, 1988, pp. 335-346.
  • Sakataeva, Rakhat. Kırgızistan’ın Dış Borç Yapısının İncelenmesi ve Çözüm Önerileri. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2014.
  • Stiglitz, Joseph E. Eşitsizliğin Bedeli: Bugünün Bölünmüş Toplumu Geleceğimizi Nasıl Tehlikeye Atıyor? Çev. O. İşler, İletişim Yayınları, 2018.
  • Stiglitz, Joseph E. “Making Naturel Resources into a Blessing rather than a Curse.” Covering Oil, eds. Svetlana Tsalik and Anja Schiffrin, Open Society Institute, 2005, pp. 13-19.
  • Suvanova, Kurkam, et al. “Will Uzbekistan’s Oil and Gas Industry Benefit from International Listing?”, Problems and Perspectives in Management, vol. 14, no. 2, 2016, pp. 262-271.
  • Taşar, İzzet. “Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Price and Exchange Rate: The Case of Romenia.” Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 28, no. 1, 2018, pp. 143-154.
  • Toda, H. Y., and T. Yamamoto. “Statistical İnference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly İntegrated Processes.” Journal of Econometrics, no. 66, 1995, pp. 225-250.
  • Trehan, Bharat. “Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and the U.S. Economy: An Empirical Investigation.” Economic Review, no. 4, 1986, pp. 25-43.
  • Uysal, Doğan, et al. “Enerji İthalatı ve Cari Açık İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 3, no. 1, 2015, pp. 63-78.
  • Yang, Fang, and Jie Dian. “Macro-Economic Impact Policies for Controlling Fossil Energy Consumption in China.” Energies, vol. 15, no. 3, 2022, pp. 1-19.
  • Yaylalı, Muammer, and Fuat Lebe. “İthal Ham Petrol Fiyatlarının Türkiye’deki Makroekonomik Aktiviteler Üzerindeki Etkisi.” Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, vol. 32, no. 1, 2012, pp. 43-68.
  • Zhang, Yonggang et al. “Nexus Between Oil Price Volatility and Inflation: Mediating Nexus from Exchange Rate.” Resources Policy, no. 79, 2022, pp. 1-12.

Dynamic Interrelationships among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics

Year 2025, Issue: 112, 63 - 104, 31.01.2025
https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.7933

Abstract

The dynamic interrelationships among energy, goods and financial markets in Eurasian economies are not empirically analyzed, yet; and this study attempts to handle this gap in the literature. It examines the dynamic interrelationships for energy (oil and natural gas) prices, inflation rate, and exchange rate in Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, covering the period from January 2010 to April 2022, by means of the Toda and Yamamoto approach to Granger causality, impulse-response functions, and variance decompositions. The empirical findings unveil that (i) inflation is mainly driven by natural gas prices, (ii) oil prices cause inflation through natural gas prices, (iii) the exchange rate pass-through to inflation seems country-specific, and (iv) there is a weak dependence between energy prices and exchange rates. Accounting for smooth structural breaks in causality analysis based on the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto approach reinforces these findings.
JEL codes: C10, O1, Q43

References

  • Abounoori, Abbas Ali, et al. “Oil Price Pass-Through into Domestic Inflation: The Case of Iran.” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 4, no. 4, 2014, pp. 662-669.
  • Adıgüzel, Uğur, et al. “Oil Prices and Exchange Rates in Brazil, India and Türkiye: Time and Frequency Domain Causality Analiysis.” Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 1, no. 1, 2013, pp. 49-73.
  • Ağayev, Seymur. “Azerbaycan’da Fiyatlar Genel Düzeyi ve Döviz Kuru İlişkisi.” H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 29, no. 1, 2011, pp. 1-19.
  • Ağazade, Seymur. “Petrol Fiyatları ve Kazakistan Reel Döviz Kuru: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı.” bilig, no. 94, 2020, pp. 217-248.
  • Ağazade, Seymur. “Reel Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisinde Asimetri: Azerbaycan Örneğinde Bir İnceleme.” UİİİD-İJEAS, Özel Sayı, 2018, pp. 113-126.
  • Akhundzada, Gumru. “Enerji Fiyat Değişimlerinin Azerbaycan’ın Cari İşlemler Dengesi Açığına Etkisi.” Uluslararası Türk Dünyası Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 2, 2023, pp. 1-20.
  • Akram, Q. Farooq. “Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Norwegian Evidence.” Econometrics Journal, vol. 7, 2004, pp. 476-504.
  • Aleisa, Eisa, A., and Sel Dibooğlu. “Sources of Real Exchange Rate Movements in Suudi Arabia.” Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 26, no.1, 2002, pp. 101-110.
  • Altemur, Necati. “Petrol Fiyatları ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği.” Malatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi İşletme ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 1, 2023, pp. 66-77.
  • Altıntaş, Halil. “Petrol Fiyatlarının Gıda Fiyatlarına Asimetrik Etkisi: Türkiye için NARDL Modeli Uygulaması.” Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 14, no. 4, 2016, pp. 1-24.
  • Amano, R. A., and S. van Norden. “Oil Prices and The Rise and Fall of The US Real Exchange Rate.” Journal of International Money and Finance, no. 17, 1998, pp. 299-316.
  • Amanov, Shatlyk. ABD’nin Avrasya Politikaları. Gökkubbe Yayınları, 2007.
  • Babak, Vladimir. “Neftegazovyy Sektor Kazakhstana.” Orta Asya ve Kafkaz, vol. 4, no. 46, 2006, pp. 50-66.
  • Balcılar, Mehmet et al. “Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Casual Nexus Viewed Through a Bootstrap Rolling Window.” Energy Economics, vol. 32, no. 6, 2010, pp. 1398-1410.
  • Bass, Alexander. “Do Oil Shock Matter for Inflation Rate in Russia: An Empirical Study of Imported Inflation Hypothesis.” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 9, no. 2, 2019, pp. 288-294.
  • Baum, Christopher, et al. “Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, no. 19, 2004, pp. 1-23.
  • Benhmad, François. “Modeling Nonlinear Granger Causality between the Oil Price and U.S. Dollar: A Wavelet Based Approach.” Economic Modelling, no. 29, 2012, pp. 1505-1514.
  • Berument, M. Hakan, et al. “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries.” The Energy Journal, vol. 31, no. 1, 2010, pp. 149-176.
  • Bigerna, Simona. “Energy Price Shocks, Exchange Rates and Inflation Nexus.” Energy Economics, no. 128, 2023, pp. 1-18.
  • BP. “Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2017.” 25.09.2023, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-worldenergy.html.
  • Brauer, Birgit. “Kazakhstan’s Economic Challenges: How to Manage the Oil Boom?” Transition Studies Review, vol. 14, no. 1, 2007, pp. 188-194.
  • Bridgman, Benjamin, et al. “Threatening to Increase Productivity: Evidence from Brazil’s Oil Industry.” World Development, vol. 39, no. 8, 2011, pp. 1372-1385.
  • Bruegel. “Real Effective Exchange Rates.” 10.10.2023, https://www.bruegel.org/publications/datasets/real-effective-exchange-rates-for-178-countries-anew-database.
  • Burbidge, John, and Alan Harrison. “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises using Vector Autoregressions.” International Economic Review, vol. 25, no. 2, 1984, pp. 459-484.
  • Castro, Cesar, and Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez. “Dynamic Interactions between Oil Price and Exchange Rate.” PloS One, vol. 15, no. 8, 2020, pp. 1-20.
  • Çetin, Işın, and Mustafa Sevüktekin. “Bir Geçiş Ülkesi Olan Kırgızistan Ekonomisinin Analizi: Gelecekten Beklentiler.” Akademik Bakış Uluslararası Hakemli Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, no. 38, 2013, pp 1-21.
  • Chaudhuri, Kausik, and Betty C. Daniel. “Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates and Oil Prices.” Economics Letters, no. 58, 1998, pp. 231-238.
  • Chen, Shiu-Sheng, and Hung-Chyn Chen. “Oil Prices and Exchange Rates.” Energy Economics, no. 29, 2007, pp. 390-404.
  • Çınar, Burak. “Tarihte Üçüncü Güç ve Orta Asya Enerji Savaşları.” Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 4, 2008, pp. 21-43.
  • Coudert, Virginie, et al. “Oil Price and The Dollar.” Energy Studies Review, vol. 15, no. 2, 2008, pp. 45-58.
  • Cunado, J., and F. Perez de Gracia. “Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries.” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, no. 45, 2005, pp. 65-83.
  • Cusup, Pirimbaev, et al. “Enerjinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Kırgızistan Ekonomisi için ARDL Sınır Testi.” Reforma, vol. 3, no. 87, 2020, pp. 48-63.
  • Dai, Zhifeng, et al. “Dynamic Spillover Effects and Portfolio Strategies Between Crude Oil, Gold and Chinese Stock Markets Retaled to New Energy Vehicle.” Energy Economics, no. 109, 2022, Article 105959, pp. 1-12.
  • DEİK (Dış Ekonomik İlişkiler Kurulu). Kırgızistan Ülke Bülteni. 10.10.2023, http://www.deik.org.tr/Contents/FileAction/2627.
  • Demir, Yusuf. “Küresel Enerji ve Gıda Fiyatlarının Türkiye’de Enflasyona Etkisinin Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizliyle İncelenmesi.” Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 33, 2022, pp. 189-203.
  • Demirtepe, M. Turgut. Orta Asya ve Kafkasya’da Güç Politikası. USAK Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Dickey, D., and W. Fuller. “Distribution of The Estimator for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, no. 74, 1979, pp. 427-431.
  • Ding, Yueting, et al. “Resilience Assessment of Chine’s Natural Gas System Under Supply Shortages: A System Dynamics Approach.” Energy, no. 247, 2022, pp. 1-12.
  • Dolado, Juan. J., and Helmut Lütkepohl. “Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems.” Econometric Reviews, vol. 15, no. 4, 1996, pp. 369-386.
  • Duygulu, Aylin Abuk. “Döviz Kuru İstikrarının Ekonomik İstikrar Açısından Değerlendirilmesi.” D.E.Ü İİBF Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 1, 1998, pp. 107-118.
  • Dzhantureeva, Elvira. “Neftegazovıy Kompleks: Zapasy, Dobyça, Investitsii [Petrol ve Gaz Kompleksi: Rezervler, Üretim, Yatırımlar].” Kazakhstan Business Magazine, no. 5, 2014, pp. 18-22.
  • Emami, Karim, and Mehdi Adippour. “Oil Income Shocks and Economic Growth in Iran.” Economic Modelling, vol. 29, no. 5, 2012, pp. 1774-1779.
  • Energy Information Administration (EİA). “Sources and Uses.” 10.10.2023, https://www.eia.gov/.
  • Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, and Gunther Markwardt. “The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy.” Energy Economics, vol. 31, no. 1, 2009, pp. 134-151.
  • Ganiev, Junus, and Baigonus Damira. “Kırgızistan’da Dış Açık Sorunu.” Reforma, vol. 1, no. 77, 2018, pp. 18-26.
  • Ganikhodjaev, Saidazim. “Regulating System of Foreign Trade in Uzbekistan at the Transitional Period.” Economic journal of Hokkaido University, no. 33, 2004, pp. 205-219.
  • Gisser, Micha, and Thomas H. Goodwin. “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: Note.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 18, no. 1, 1986, pp. 95-103.
  • Guliyev, Farid. “The Contract of the Century’20 Years After.” SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2498276.
  • Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser. “Export Performance and Economic Growth Nexus in Japan: A Bootstrap Approach.” Japan and Word Economy, vol. 14, no. 1, 2002, pp. 25-33.
  • Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan, and Hooi Hooi Lean. “Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Disaggregation Price Inflation.” Resources Policy, no. 73, 2021, pp. 1-11.
  • Ibpus. Uzbekistan: Mineral, Mining Sector Investment and Business Guide. USA International Business Publications, 2013 IMF (International Monetary Fund). “IMF Data.” 10.10.2023, https://www.imf.org/en/Data.
  • Indjehagopian, J.P, et al. “Dynamics of Heating Oil Market Prices in Europe.” Energy Economics, no. 22, 2000, pp. 225-252.
  • Kalyoncu, Hüseyin, and Shatlyk Amanov. “Orta Asya Enerji Kaynakları ve Enerji Bağlamında ABD’nin Orta Asya Politikası.” Çağ Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 2, 2010, pp. 38-71.
  • Karenov, Rashit S. “Sovremennoe Sostoyanie i Prioritetnye Zadachi Razvitiya v Perspektive Neftyanoy Otrasli v Mire i Kazakhstane” [Dünyadaki ve Kazakistan’daki Petrol Endüstrisinin Gelişimin Mevcut Durum ve Öncelikli Görevleri]. Karaganda Üniversitesi Vestnik Dergisi, vol. 3, no. 79, 2015, pp. 5-18.
  • Karimli, Tural, et al. “Oil Price Pass-Through into Inflation: The Evidence from Oil Exporting Countries.” Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies International Economics Department Working Paper Series, no. IHEIDWP01, 2016, pp. 1-24.
  • Karluk, S. Rıdvan. Küresel Krizin Kırgızistan Ekonomisine Etkisi ve Türkiye Kırgızistan Ekonomik İlişkilerindeki Gelişmeler. Eskişehir, 2014.
  • Kartal, Gökhan. “Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Enflasyon ile Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 10, no. 1, 2023, pp. 28-56.
  • Statistical Committee of Kazakhstan. “Kazakistan 2016’da.” 08.10.2023, http://www.stat.gov.kz.
  • Koçak, Sultan, et al. “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Petrol Fiyatları ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Ampirik Analiz.” Journal of Life Economics, vol. 4, no. 4, 2017, pp. 261-273.
  • Korhonen, Iikka, and Tuuli Juurikkala. “Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries.” Journal of Economics and Finance, no. 33, 2009, pp. 71-79.
  • Kutan, Ali M., and Michael L. Wyzan. “Explaining The Real Exchange Rate in Kazakhstan, 1996-2003: Is Kazakhstan Vulnerable to The Dutch Disease?” Economic Systems, no. 29, 2005, pp. 242-255.
  • Kwiatkowski, Denis, et al. “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root.” Journal of Econometrics, no. 54, 1992, pp. 159-178.
  • Mensi, Walid, et al. “Extreme Quantile Spillovers and Connectedness Between Oil and Chinese Sector Markets: A Portfolio Hedging Analysis.” The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, no. 28, 2023, pp. 1-18.
  • Musin, Asılbek. “Strukturnoye Kachestvo Ekonomiki Kazakhstana Cherez Prizmu Sovremennykh Podkhodov k Sotsial’no-Ekonomicheskomu Razvitiyu.” [Structural Quality of Kazakshstan’s Economy through the Prism of Modern Approaches to Socio-Economic Development]. Transport Business in Russia, no. 6, 2012, pp. 236-240.
  • Narin, Müslüme. “Avrasya Bölgesindeki Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin Enerji Kaynakları ve İletim Hatlarının Türkiye’ye Katkıları.” Türk Dünyası İncelemeleri Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 1, 2006, pp. 151-167.
  • Nazlioglu, Saban, et al. “Oil Prices and Real Estate İnvestment Trusts (REİTs): Gradual-Shift Casuality and Volatility Transmission Analysis.” Energy Economics, no. 60, 2016, pp. 168-175.
  • Nazlioglu, Saban, et al. “Oil Prices and Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Structural Shifts in Causal Linkages.” Emerging Markets and Finance and Trade, vol. 55, no. 1, 2019, pp. 105-117.
  • Öksüzler, Oktay, and Evren İpek. “Dünya Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 14, 2011, pp. 15-34.
  • Ölmezoğulları, Nalan, and Gulnaz Aldibekova. “Kazakistan Ekonomisinde Petrolün Rolü.” Uludağ Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 19, no. 35, 2018, pp. 669-705.
  • Olomola, Philp A., and Akintoye V. Adejumo. “Oil Price Shock and Macroeconomic Activities in Nigeria.” International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, no. 3, 2006, pp. 28-34.
  • Özdamar, Gökhan. “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Döviz Kuru Geçiş Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı Bulguları.” Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, no. 32, 2015, pp. 66-97.
  • Özdemir, Abdullah, and Fatma Yüksel. “Türkiye’de Enerji Sektörünün İleri ve Geri Bağlantı Etkileri.” Yönetim ve Ekonomi, vol. 13, no. 2, 2006, pp. 1-18.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., and P. Perron. “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression.” Biometrika, no. 75, 1988, pp. 335-346.
  • Sakataeva, Rakhat. Kırgızistan’ın Dış Borç Yapısının İncelenmesi ve Çözüm Önerileri. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2014.
  • Stiglitz, Joseph E. Eşitsizliğin Bedeli: Bugünün Bölünmüş Toplumu Geleceğimizi Nasıl Tehlikeye Atıyor? Çev. O. İşler, İletişim Yayınları, 2018.
  • Stiglitz, Joseph E. “Making Naturel Resources into a Blessing rather than a Curse.” Covering Oil, eds. Svetlana Tsalik and Anja Schiffrin, Open Society Institute, 2005, pp. 13-19.
  • Suvanova, Kurkam, et al. “Will Uzbekistan’s Oil and Gas Industry Benefit from International Listing?”, Problems and Perspectives in Management, vol. 14, no. 2, 2016, pp. 262-271.
  • Taşar, İzzet. “Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Price and Exchange Rate: The Case of Romenia.” Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 28, no. 1, 2018, pp. 143-154.
  • Toda, H. Y., and T. Yamamoto. “Statistical İnference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly İntegrated Processes.” Journal of Econometrics, no. 66, 1995, pp. 225-250.
  • Trehan, Bharat. “Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and the U.S. Economy: An Empirical Investigation.” Economic Review, no. 4, 1986, pp. 25-43.
  • Uysal, Doğan, et al. “Enerji İthalatı ve Cari Açık İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 3, no. 1, 2015, pp. 63-78.
  • Yang, Fang, and Jie Dian. “Macro-Economic Impact Policies for Controlling Fossil Energy Consumption in China.” Energies, vol. 15, no. 3, 2022, pp. 1-19.
  • Yaylalı, Muammer, and Fuat Lebe. “İthal Ham Petrol Fiyatlarının Türkiye’deki Makroekonomik Aktiviteler Üzerindeki Etkisi.” Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, vol. 32, no. 1, 2012, pp. 43-68.
  • Zhang, Yonggang et al. “Nexus Between Oil Price Volatility and Inflation: Mediating Nexus from Exchange Rate.” Resources Policy, no. 79, 2022, pp. 1-12.
There are 84 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Regional Economy, Studies of the Turkic World
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Türker Batmaz 0000-0002-0360-6302

Publication Date January 31, 2025
Submission Date February 18, 2024
Acceptance Date June 28, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2025 Issue: 112

Cite

APA Batmaz, T. (2025). Dynamic Interrelationships among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics. Bilig(112), 63-104. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.7933
AMA Batmaz T. Dynamic Interrelationships among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics. Bilig. January 2025;(112):63-104. doi:10.12995/bilig.7933
Chicago Batmaz, Türker. “Dynamic Interrelationships Among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics”. Bilig, no. 112 (January 2025): 63-104. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.7933.
EndNote Batmaz T (January 1, 2025) Dynamic Interrelationships among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics. Bilig 112 63–104.
IEEE T. Batmaz, “Dynamic Interrelationships among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics”, Bilig, no. 112, pp. 63–104, January 2025, doi: 10.12995/bilig.7933.
ISNAD Batmaz, Türker. “Dynamic Interrelationships Among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics”. Bilig 112 (January 2025), 63-104. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.7933.
JAMA Batmaz T. Dynamic Interrelationships among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics. Bilig. 2025;:63–104.
MLA Batmaz, Türker. “Dynamic Interrelationships Among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics”. Bilig, no. 112, 2025, pp. 63-104, doi:10.12995/bilig.7933.
Vancouver Batmaz T. Dynamic Interrelationships among Energy Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for the Turkic Republics. Bilig. 2025(112):63-104.

Ahmet Yesevi University Board of Trustees