Türkiye'de İkili Bankacılık Sistemi Kredileri ile Sanayi Üretimi Arasındaki Bağın Ampirik Yansımaları: Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizleri

Year 2021, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 595 - 623, 26.12.2021

Bilgehan Tekin

https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.896603

Abstract

Bir ekonomideki tasarrufların ekonomiye etkili bir şekilde yönlendirilmesi gelişmiş bir finansal sistemin varlığına bağlıdır. Finansal sistemlerin ve bankacılık sektörünün ülke ekonomisi üzerindeki etkileri literatürde sıklıkla incelenen bir konudur. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de bankacılık sektörü finansmanının sanayi üretimi üzerindeki etkinliğinin değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bugün, birçok ülkede olduğu gibi Türkiye'de de bankacılık sektörü konvansiyonel ve İslami bankalar olmak üzere ikili bankacılık sistemi üzerinden faaliyet göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, İslami bankalar ve konvansiyonel bankaların reel sektöre sağladığı finansman ile endüstriyel üretim değişkenleri arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkileri araştırılmıştır. Johansen eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre sanayi üretimi ile konvansiyonel ve İslami bankaların reel sektöre sağladığı finansman değişkenleri arasında uzun vadede birlikte hareket söz konusudur. VECM hata düzeltme modeline dayalı olarak gerçekleştirilen nedensellik analizine göre ise banka kredilerinden sanayi üretimine doğru uzun vadeli bir nedensellik ilişkisinden bahsedilebilmektedir.

Keywords

İslami Bankalar, Konvansiyonel Bankalar, Sanayi Üretimi, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik

Empirical Reflections of the Nexus between Dual Banking System Credits and Industry Production in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Abstract

The existence of a developed financial system is essential for directing savings to the economy. The effects of the financial system and banks on the economy have been frequently investigated in the literature. This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of banking sector financing to produce output in Turkey. Today, as in many countries the banking sector has been operating out of a dual banking system including Islamic and conventional banks in Turkey. In this study, the cointegration and causality relationships between the financing provided by Islamic banks and conventional banks to the real sector and industrial production variables were investigated. According to the Johansen cointegration test results, the financing series provided by industrial production and conventional and Islamic banks to the real sector move together in the long run. According to the VECM causality analysis, a long-term causality relationship between the series from bank loans to industrial production can be mentioned.

Keywords

Islamic Banks, Conventional Banks, , Industry Production, , Cointegration, Causality

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