Beşeri Sermaye Tahmini: Gizli Değişken Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 36, 225 - 254, 23.03.2020

Nilcan Albayrak , Zehra Abdioğlu

https://doi.org/10.35408/comuybd.502280

Cited By: 1

Öz

Beşeri sermaye bir
ülkenin iktisadi büyüme performansını açıklamada önemli bir rol oynamaktadır.
Literatürde beşeri sermayenin bireysel düzeyde sayısal ölçümüne yönelik farklı
yaklaşımlar önerilmiş, çapraz ülke düzeyinde eğitim stoğuna dayalı farklı
ölçümler ya da yine çapraz ülke düzeyinde beşeri sermayenin kısıtlı
bileşenlerinin ortalamalarına dayalı yeni ölçümler geliştirilmiştir. Bu
yaklaşımlar arasında gizli değişken yaklaşımı, beşeri sermayenin karmaşık, çok
yönlü, doğrudan gözlenemeyen ve kesin olarak ölçülemeyen bir olgu olduğunu yani
istatistiksel olarak beşeri sermayenin gizli bir değişken olduğunu
önermektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, gizli değişken yaklaşımını benimseyerek
Türkiye ekonomisi için 81 il kapsamında 2008-2013 dönemi panel verileri ile
makroekonomik düzeyde bir beşeri sermaye endeksi oluşturmaktır. Bu doğrultuda
çalışmada gizli değişken tahmin yöntemlerinden Doğrulayıcı Faktör Analizi ve
Çoklu Gösterge-Çoklu Neden Modelleri kullanılmıştır. İller için kurulan model
tahminleri eğitim değişkenlerinin beşeri sermayeyi belirlemede iyi birer
gösterge olduklarını bir kez daha göstermiştir. Çoklu Gösterge-Çoklu Neden
model tahminlerine göre en yüksek etkiye sahip eğitim değişkeni ortaöğretim
okullaşma oranı iken; Doğrulayıcı Faktör Analizi model tahmin sonuçlarına göre
en yüksek etkiye sahip eğitim değişkeni üniversite mezun oranı olmuştur İller
bazında beşeri sermaye endeks değerleri incelendiğinde 2008 yılı için İstanbul,
Ankara ve İzmir ilinin hem Doğrulayıcı Faktör Analizi hem de Çoklu
Gösterge-Çoklu Neden modellerinde beklenildiği üzere beşeri sermaye endeks
değerleri bakımından öncü oldukları, bu illeri Eskişehir, Bursa, Konya ve Adana
illerinin takip ettiği tespit edilmiştir. En düşük beşeri sermaye endeksine
sahip iller ise Iğdır, Hakkari, Şırnak, Kilis, Bayburt, Tunceli ve Ardahan
olarak sıralanmaktadır. Çalışmada elde edilen 2008-2013 dönemi iller ortalaması
beşeri sermaye endeks değerleri Birleşmiş Milletler Kalkınma Programı
tarafından hesaplanan İnsani Gelişmişlik Endeksi ile karşılaştırıldığında,
ilgili endeks değerlerinin aynı yönlü bir eğilime sahip oldukları saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

: Beşeri sermaye, gizli değişken, doğrulayıcı faktör analizi, çoklu gösterge-çoklu neden

Kaynakça

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