Türkiye'de Demokrasi ve Kamu Borcu Etkileşiminin Ampirik Analizi

Year 2021, Volume: 22 Issue: 1, 113 - 134, 07.05.2021

Orhan Cengiz Müge Manga

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.741743

Abstract

Yeni politik ekonomi literatüründe demokrasiyle kamu borçlanması arasındaki ilişki seçim sistemi, parti yapısı, politik rejimler başta olmak üzere birçok unsur kapsamında incelenmektedir. Demokrasilerde karar alma sürecinde etkili olan faktörler hükümetleri kamu harcaması ve bütçe üzerinde farklı inisiyatiflere yönlendirerek kamu borcunu etkilemektedir. Böylelikle demokrasi ile kamu borcu arasındaki ilişki ayrı bir önem kazanmaktadır. Buradan yola çıkarak bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1975-2015 dönemi verileri kullanılarak demokrasi ile kamu borcu ilişkisi test edilmiştir. ARDL sınır testi sonuçlarına göre demokrasiden uzaklaşıldıkça kamu borcu da artmaktadır. Belirli bir eşik değerinden sonra ise azalmaya başlamaktadır. VECM Granger nedensellik testi bulguları ise hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde demokrasi, demokrasinin karesi ve kamu harcamalarından kamu borcuna doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisini gösterirken, ekonomik büyümeden kamu borcuna doğru sadece uzun dönemde tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını ifade etmektedir.

Keywords

Demokrasi, Kamu Borcu, Kamu Harcamaları, ARDL Sınır Testi, Yeni Politik Ekonomi

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