Hizmet İhracatı ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Bağlantıda Dijital Teknolojilerin Moderatör Etkisi: Yüksek Gelirli Ülkeler Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2024, Volume: 25 Issue: 1, 127 - 141, 31.01.2024

Büşra Özer Aksoy Fatma Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1332368

Abstract

Bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerindeki gelişmeler dijitalleşme sürecine ivme kazandırarak dijital teknolojilerin kullanımını artırmıştır. Söz konusu teknolojilerin kullanımındaki artış ise küresel hizmet ticaretinin hızlanmasına ve ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin hizmetler ticareti açısından yeniden tartışılmasına yol açmıştır. Hipoteze göre, hizmet ihracatının ekonomik büyüme sürecindeki muhtemel etkilerinin olumlu yönde olması yani ekonomik büyümeye pozitif katkı sağlaması beklenmektedir. Dijital teknolojilerin hizmet ihracatı-ekonomik büyüme bağlantısındaki rolü dikkate alındığında ise bu teknolojilerin söz konusu pozitif etkiyi güçlendirmesi beklenmektedir. Bu kapsamda son yıllarda hem araştırmacıların hem de politika yapıcıların ilgisi hizmet ihracatı, ekonomik büyüme ve dijitalleşme arasındaki bağlantılara ve dijital teknolojilerin rolüne odaklanmıştır. Dolayısıyla çalışmanın amacı, hizmet ihracatı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkide dijital teknolojilerin moderatör etkisinin araştırılmasına katkıda bulunmaktır. Bu doğrultuda, çalışmada 40 yüksek gelirli ülkenin 2008-2020 dönemine ait ilgili verileri kullanılarak panel veri analizi gerçekleştirilmiş ve panel eşbütünleşme testleri (Pedroni ve Kao) ile panel FMOLS ve panel DOLS katsayı tahmincilerinden faydalanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular; analize dahil edilen değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmekte olup, hizmet ihracatının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki pozitif etkisini doğrulamaktadır. Başka bir ifadeyle, hizmet ihracatına dayalı büyüme hipotezini doğrulayıcı ampirik kanıtlara ulaşılmıştır. Bununla birlikte, dijital teknolojilerin hizmet ihracatı ile ekonomik büyüme arasında moderatör etkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Yani moderatör değişkenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi pozitiftir.

Keywords

hizmet ihracatı, ekonomik büyüme, dijitalleşme

Moderator Effect of Digital Technologies on the Linkage between Service Export and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on High-Income Countries

Abstract

Developments in information and communication technologies have accelerated the digitalization process by increasing the use of digital technologies. The increase in the use of these technologies has led to the acceleration of global services trade and the re-discussion of the export-led growth hypothesis in terms of services trade. According to the hypothesis, it is expected that the possible effects of service exports on the economic growth process will be positive, that is, it will contribute positively to economic growth. Considering the role of digital technologies in the service export-economic growth nexus, these technologies are expected to strengthen this positive effect. In this context, the interest of both researchers and policy makers in recent years has focused on the linkages between service exports, economic growth and digitalization, and the role of digital technologies. Therefore, the aim of the study is to contribute to the investigation of the moderator effect of digital technologies on the relationship between service exports and economic growth. From this point, panel data analysis was employed by using the relevant data of 40 high-income countries for the period 2008-2020 and panel cointegration tests (Pedroni and Kao) and panel FMOLS and panel DOLS coefficient estimators were used. The empirical findings obtained indicate the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables included in the analysis and confirm the positive effect of service exports on economic growth. In other words, empirical evidence has been obtained confirming the growth hypothesis based on service exports. Additionally, it was concluded that digital technologies have a moderator effect between service exports and economic growth. In other words, the effect of the moderator variable on economic growth is positive.

Keywords

services export, economic growth, digitalization

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