Tüketici Güveni Ve Hisse Senedi Getirileri ilişkisi: imkb Mali Sektör Şirketleri Üzerinde Bir Uygulama

Year 2006, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 217 - 230, 01.06.2006

Dr. Serkan Yılmaz Kandır

Abstract

Aim of this study is to investigate the forecasting ability of consumer confidence index for ISE financial sector stock returns Regression analysis method is employed In this context stock returns of 28 financial sector companies are used as dependent variables for the period that spans from February 2002 to June 2005 Change in CNBC E Consumer Confidence Index and three control variables are used as independent variables Control variables are size premium value premium and ISE GDS Index returns Analysis results suggest that consumer confidence index is a significant factor for majority of the financial sector stocks Using control variables has not altered those results Key Words: Consumer confidence index ISE financial sector companies stock returns

Keywords

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TÜKETİCİ GÜVENİ VE HİSSE SENEDİ GETİRİLERİ İLİŞKİSİ: İMKB MALİ SEKTÖR ŞİRKETLERİ ÜZERİNDE BİR UYGULAMA

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, tüketici güven endeksinin İMKB mali sektör şirketlerinin hisse
senedi getirilerini tahmin etme kabiliyetini incelemektir. Çalışmada regresyon analizi
yönteminden yararlanılmıştır. Bu bağlamda, Şubat 2002 – Haziran 2005 dönemi için 28
mali sektör şirketinin hisse senedi getirileri bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır.
CNBC-E tüketici güven endeksinde değişim ile üç adet kontrol değişkeninden ise
bağımsız değişkenler olarak yararlanılmıştır. Kontrol değişkenleri, büyüklük primi,
değer primi ve İMKB DİBS endeksi getirisidir. Analiz sonuçları, tüketici güven
endeksinin mali sektör hisse senetlerinin çoğunluğu için önemli bir faktör olduğunu
göstermiştir. Modelde, kontrol değişkenlerine yer verilmesi de bu sonucu
değiştirmemiştir

Keywords

Tüketici güven endeksi, İMKB mali sektör şirketleri, hisse senedi getirileri

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