CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL MONEY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF MONETARY POLICY

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1, 199 - 216, 22.01.2023

Nilgün Acar Balaylar

https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1171217

Öz

In recent years, expectations for central banks have increased excessively due to the major role in resolving financial and real crises of central banks. However, money policy also has its limits. The 2008 Global Crisis and the reduced room for manoeuvre brought about by the Covid-19 process's difficulty with the effective lower bound severely hindered the execution of monetary policy. In addition, globalization of finance and financial innovations are some of the factors limiting the monetary policy. In this study, the efficacy of monetary policy will be examined in relation to the central bank digital currency (CBDC) that central banks are preparing to issue as a part of the present acceleration of digitization in the sector of finance. It is obvious that the economy would be significantly impacted by the release of CBDC. There is general agreement in the literature that monetary policy using CBDC will provide better results than the present system. It is anticipated that, particularly with the deployment of CBDC, the issue of the effective lower bound would be resolved, the negative impacts brought on by quantitative easing will be eliminated, and the interest rate pass-through will be strengthened. The use of CBDC for developed countries may contribute more to the effectiveness of monetary policy than for developing countries. The adoption of CBDC in developing countries is probably going to lead to more currency substitution (dollarization) and a weakened ability to regulate the impacts of capital flows. For developing countries, this will entail losing their ability to execute their own monetary policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Central Bank Digital Currency, Efficiency of Monetary Policies, Digitalization

MERKEZ BANKASI DİJİTAL PARASI VE PARA POLİTİKASININ ETKİNLİĞİ

Öz

Son yıllarda merkez bankalarının finansal ve reel krizlerin çözümünde büyük rol oynaması nedeniyle merkez bankalarına yönelik beklentiler aşırı derecede artmıştır. Ancak, para politikasının da sınırları vardır. Özellikle 2008 Küresel Krizi ve Covid-19 sürecinde etkin alt sınır sorunu nedeniyle ortaya çıkan manevra alanı kaybı, para politikası uygulamalarının etkinliğini kısıtlamıştır. Bunun yanı sıra finansın küreselleşmesi ve finansal yenilikler para politikasını sınırlayan etkenler arasındadır. Bu çalışmada yakın geçmişte hızlanan finans alanında dijitalleşme ile birlikte merkez bankalarının yeni düzene uyumu çerçevesinde çıkarmaya hazırlandıkları merkez bankası dijital para birimi (CBDC), para politikalarının etkinliği açısından analiz edilecektir. CBDC ihracının ekonomide çok kapsamlı etkiler yaratacağı açıktır. CBDC’nin kullanımıyla para politikasının mevcut duruma göre daha etkin sonuçlar vereceği yönünde literatürde bir fikir birliği söz konusudur. Özellikle CBDC’nin kullanımı ile etkin alt sınır sorununun aşılması, niceliksel gevşemenin yarattığı olumsuzlukların giderilmesi ve faiz geçişkenliğinin güçlenmesi yoluyla para politikasının etkinliğinin artması beklenmektedir. Gelişmiş ülkeler için CBDC kullanımı gelişmiş ülkelere göre para politikasının etkinliğine daha fazla katkı sağlayabilir. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için CBDC’nin kullanımı ile para ikamesinin (dolarizasyon) artması ve sermaye hareketlerinin yaratacağı etkilerin kontrolünün zayıflaması olasıdır. Bu durum gelişmekte olan ülkeler için para politikası uygulamalarında egemenlik kaybı anlamına gelecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Merkez Bankası Dijital Parası, CBDC, Para Politikası Ekinliği, Dijitalleşme, Central Bank Digital Currency, Efficiency of Monetary Policies, Digitalization

Kaynakça

• Acar Balaylar, N. (2001). Para ikamesi olgusu ve makro ekonomik etkileri (1980 sonrası Türkiye örneği). (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İzmir.
• Alper, K., Kara, H., Yörükoğlu, M. (2012). Rezerv opsiyonu mekanizması, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, 28.
• Aysan, A. F. ve Kayani, F. N. (2022). China’s transition to a digital currency does it threaten dollarization? Asia and the Global Economy, 2(1), 1-6.
• BIS (2021). A global database on central banks’ monetary responses to Covid-19, 26.
• Bhattarai, S., Chatterjee, A., Parkc, W. Y. (2021). Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 122, 22.
• Bordo, M, D. ve Levin, A. T. (2017). Central bank digital currency and the future of monetary policy. NBER Working Paper, No. 23711.
• Borio, C. (2021). Back to the future: Intellectual challenges for monetary policy. Economic Papers, No. 4. Carapella, F. ve Flemming, J. (2020). Central bank digital currency: A literature review, FEDS Notes. Erişim adresi https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/central-bank-digital-currency-a-literature-review-20201109.htm?utm_campaign=BitDigest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter
• Cunha, P. R., Melo, P., Sebastião, H. (2021). From bitcoin to central bank digital currencies: Making sense of the digital money revolution. Future Internet, 13(7), https://doi.org/10.3390/ fi13070165
• Çevik, S. ve Teber, D. (2021). The determinants of consumer cash usage in Turkey, TCMB Working Paper, No: 21/35.
• Davoodalhosseini, M., Rivadeneyra, F., Zhu, Y. (2020). CBDC and monetary policy. Bank of Canada staff notes. Erişim adresi https://www.banqueducanada.ca/2020/02/note-analytique-personnel-2020-4/
• Engert, W. ve Fung, S. C. (2017). Central bank digital currency: Motivations and implications. Bank of Canada staff discussion paper, No: 2017-16.
• Fawley, B. W. ve Neely, C. J. (2013). Four stories of quantitative easing. Federal reserve bank of St. Louis Review, 95(1), 51-88.
• Fraschini, M., Somoza, L., Terracciano, T. (2021). Central bank digital currency and quantitative easing. Swiss Finance Institute research paper series, No: 21-25.
• Gill, I. ve Nagle, P. (2022). Inflation could wreal vengeance on the world’s poor. Brookings, Friday. Erişim adresi https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2022/03/18/inflation-could-wreak-vengeance-on-the-worlds-poor/?utm_campaign=Global%20Economy%20and%20Development&utm_medium=email&utm_content=208194749&utm_source=hs_email
• Grasselli, R. M. (2021). Monetary policy responses to Covid-19: A Comparison with the 2008 crisis and implications for the future of central banking. Review of Political Economy, 34 (3), 420-445, DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2021.1908778
• Grym, A., Heikkinen, P., Kauko, K., Takala, K. (2017). Central bank digital currency. BoF Economic Review, No: 5/2017, Bank of Finland.
• IMF (2020). Digital money across borders: Macrofinancial implications. Erişim adresi https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2020/10/17/Digital-Money-Across-Borders-Macro-Financial-Implications-49823
• Jahan, S. (2018). Inflation targeting: Holding the line. Finance and Development. Erişim adresi https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/72-inflation-targeting.htm
• Kim, Y. S. ve Kwon, O. (2019). Central bank digital currency and financial stability. BOK Working Paper, No: 2019-6. Erişim adresi https://ideas.repec.org/p/bok/wpaper/1906.html
• Lagerwall, B. (2019). Fiscal policy in a monetary policy perspective. Economic Commentaries, SVERIGES RISKBANK, No: 5.
• Larue, L.ve Sandberg, C. F. J. (2020). The promises and perils of central bank digital currencies. Revue de la Régulation, 28 | 2nd semestre / Autumn 2020, mis en ligne le 31 décembre 2020, consulté le 16 mars 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4000/regulation.18018
• Lee, D. K. C., Yan, L., Wang, Y. (2021). A global perspective on central bank digital currency. China Economic Journal, 14(1), 2-16. Erişim adresi https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/17538963.2020.1870279?needAccess=true
• Meaning, J., Dyson, B., Barker, J., Clayton, E. (2018). Broadening narrow money: monetary policy with a central bank digital currency. Bank of England Staff Working Paper, No: 724. Erişim adresi https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb21q2a1.pdf
• Nabilou, H. (2019). Testing the waters of the Rubicon: the European Central Bank and central bank digital currencies, Journal of Banking Regulation, 21, 299-314. Erişim adresi https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41261-019-00112-1
• Ortiz, G. (1993). Currency substitution in Mexico. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 15(2), 174-185.
• Prat, J., Dié N., Michau, J-P. (2020). Helicopter money and CBDCs: Are DLT the perfect infrastructure for monetary policies in time of crisis?, Blockchain & Plateforms Chair, Note No: 2020-05-004. Erişim adresi https://blockchain-chair.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/new-montary-policy-and-dlt-3.pdf
• Perret, V. (2019). Dijital çağın parası: Merkez bankası dijital para birimlerinde fırsatlar, riskler ve etkiler. Observatoire de la finance. Erişim adresi https://www.obsfin.ch/wp-content/uploads/Document/2019-CBDC%20Report%20INT_Turkish.pdf
• PwC CBDC Global Index (2021). Erişim adresi https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/financial-services/assets/pwc-cbdc-global-index-1st-edition-april-2021.pdf
• PwC CBDC Global Index and Stablecoin Overview (2022). Erişim adresi https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/new-ventures/cryptocurrency-assets/pwc-global-cbdc-index-stablecoin-overview-2022.pdf
• Wu, Y. (2020). The impact of the issuance of central bank digital currency on the effectiveness of monetary policy, advances in economics, Business and Management Research, 155. Erişim adresi: atlantis-press.com.
• Yamaoka, H. (2019). The future of central banking, Account Econ Law 2019; aop. Erişim adresi https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/ael-2019-0003/html