Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 1309-4602 2587-0106 Dicle University 10.53092/duiibfd.1609095 Time-Series Analysis Zaman Serileri Analizi CO2 EMISSIONS, ENERGY INTENSITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR TÜRKİYE CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0981-7215 Demiralp Ahmet HARRAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ 11 30 2025 15 30 590 608 01 02 2025 09 08 2025 Copyright © 2011, Dicle University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences 2011 Dicle University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences

This study aims to understand the effects of energy policies by examining the relationship between energy intensity, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth in Türkiye from 1990 to 2023 through cointegration and causality tests. The findings of the cointegration test indicate a symmetric ESTAR cointegration relationship between the variables analyzed. This shows that all three variables move together in the long run. The findings of the asymmetric causality test indicate that there is only a unidirectional causality relationship from positive shocks of energy intensity to negative shocks of economic growth. This suggests that energy efficiency policies should be designed in a way that is compatible with both environmental sustainability and economic growth objectives. The results of the study emphasize the importance of considering not only the environmental impact of energy policies but also their potential impact on economic growth.

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de enerji yoğunluğu, karbondioksit emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi 1990-2023 dönemleri için eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleriyle inceleyerek enerji politikalarının etkilerini anlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Eşbütünleşme testine ait bulgulardan incelenen değişkenler arasında simetrik ESTAR eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu ise her üç değişkenin de uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etme eğiliminde olduklarını göstermektedir. Asimetrik nedensellik testine ait bulgulardan ise sadece enerji yoğunluğunun pozitif şoklarından ekonomik büyümenin negatif şoklarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine ulaşılmıştır. Bu durum, enerji verimliliği politikalarının hem çevresel sürdürülebilirlik hem de ekonomik büyüme hedefleriyle uyumlu bir şekilde tasarlanması gerektiğine işaret etmektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, enerji politikalarının yalnızca çevresel etkilerini değil, aynı zamanda ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki potansiyel etkilerini de dikkate almanın önemini vurgulamaktadır.

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