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Doğal İşsizlik Oranı mı? İşsizlik Histerisi mi? Türkiye İçin Sektörel Panel Birim Kök Sınaması Analizi

Year 2011, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 205 - 216, 01.05.2011

Bülent Güloğlu M.serdar İspir

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de sektörel işsizliğin doğal işsizlik oranı önsavıyla mı yoksa işsizlik histerisi önsavıyla mı açıklanabilir olduğu incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla Türkiye’deki 9 sektörün 1988-2008 dönemini kapsayan işsizlik oranı serilerinden oluşan panel veri seti oluşturularak, işsizlik serilerinin durağanlığı sınanmaktadır. Durağanlık, son dönemlerde geliştirilen ve her sektörde farklı tarihlerde ve farklı sayılarda kırılmaya izin veren bir panel birim kök sınamasıyla sınanmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar diğer çalışma sonuçlarından farklı olarak Türkiye Ekonomisini oluşturan sektörlerin işsizlik oranlarının doğal işsizlik önsavının özel bir türü tarafından açıklanabilir olduğunu göstermektedir

Keywords

Doğal işsizlik oranı histeri panel birim kök testi

References

  • Arestis, P. ve Mariscal, I.BF. (1999) “Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in OECD Countries” Economics Letters, 65: 149–56.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (1998) “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes” Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78.
  • Barışık, S. ve Çevik, İ.E. (2008) “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Histerisi- nin Yapısal Kırılma ve Güçlü Hafıza Modellemesi ile Sektö- rel Analizi” TİSK Akademi, 3(6):67-87.
  • Barro, R. (1988) “The Natural Rate Theory Reconsidered: The Persistence of Unemployment” American Economic Review, 78(2): 32-37.
  • Blanchard, O. J. ve Summers, L. H. (1986) “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem” NBER Working Paper Series, No.1950.
  • Blanchard, O. ve Summers, L. (1987) “Hysteresis in Umemp- loyment” European Economic Review, 31(1): 288-95.
  • Blanchard, O. ve Wolfers, J. (2000) “The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence” Economic Journal, 110(462): 1-33.
  • Breusch, T. ve Pagan, A. (1980) “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Application to Model Specifications in Economet- rics” Reviews of Economics Studies, 47: 239-253.
  • Brunello, G. (1990) “Hysteresis and the Japanese Unemploy- ment Problem: A Preliminary Investigation” Oxford Econo- mic Papers, 42: 483-500.
  • Camarero, M., Carrion-i-Silverstre, J.L. ve Tamarit, C. (2006) “Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment in OECD Count- ries: New Evidence Using Stationarity Panel Tests with Bre- aks” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68: 167–82.
  • Camarero, M., Carrion-i-Silverstre, J.L. ve Tamarit, C. (2008) “Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evi- dence Using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks, Review of Development Economics” Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 620-635.
  • Candelon, B., Dupuy, A, ve Gil-Alana, L.A. (2009) “The Na- ture of Occupational Unemployment Rates in the United States: Hysteresis or Structural?” Applied Economics, 41: 2483–2493.
  • Caporale, G.M. ve Gil-Alana, L.A. (2007) “Modelling the US, UK and Japanese Unemployment Rates: Fractional Integra- tion and Structural Breaks” Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 52(11): 4998-5013.
  • Carrion-i-Silverstre, J.L., Del Barrio-Castro, T. ve Lopez-Ba- zo, E. (2005a) “Breaking the Panels: An Application to the GDP Per Capita”, Econometrics Journal, 8(2):159-175.
  • Carrion-i-Silverstre, J.L. (2005b) “Health Care Expenditure and GDP: Are They Broken Stationary?” Journal of Health Economics, 24(5):939-854.
  • Chang, T., Nieh, K.C. ve Wei, C.C. (2005) “An Empirical Note on Testing Hysteresis in Unemployment for Ten Euro- pean Countries: Panel SURADF Approach” Applied Econo- mics Letters, 12: 881-886.
  • Choi, I. (2001) “Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data” Journal of International Money and Finance, 20: 229-272.
  • Cuestas, J.C. ve Gil-Alana, L.A. (2009) “Unemployment Hyste- resis, Structural Changes, Non-Linearities and Fractional In- tegration in Central and Eastern Europe” Nottingham Uni- versity, Discussion Papers, No. 2009/6, ISSN: 1478-9396.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979) “Distribution of the Es- timators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427–431.
  • Feve, P., Henin, P.Y. ve Jolivaldt, P. (2003), “Testing for Hyste- resis: Unemployment Persistence and Wage Adjustment” Empirical Economics, 28: 535–552.
  • Friedman, M. (1968) “The Role of Monetary Policy” American Economic Review, 58: 1-17.
  • Geweke, J. ve Porter-Hudak, S. (1983) “The Estimation and Application of Long Memory Time Series Models” Journal of Time Series Analysis, 4: 221-238.
  • Gil-Alana, L.A. ve Henry, S.G.B. (2003) “Fractional Integrati- on and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment” Oxford Bulle- tin of Economics and Statistics, 65(2): 221-239.
  • Gray, D. (2004) “Persistent Regional Unemployment Differen- tials Revisited”, Regional Studies, 38: 167-176.
  • Hadri, K.(2000) “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Pa- nels” Econometrics Journal, 3: 148-161.
  • Im, K., Pesaran, H. ve Shin, Y. (2003) “Testing for Unit Ro- ots in Heterogenous Panels” Journal of Econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
  • Im, K. S. ve Lee, J. (2001) “Panel LM Unit Root Test with Level Shifts,” Technical Report, Department of Economics, University of Central Florida.
  • Küçükkale, Y. (2001) “Doğal İşsizlik Oranındaki Keynesyen İs- teri Üzerine Klasik bir inceleme: Kalman Filtre Tahmin Tek- niği ile Türkiye Örneği 1950-1995”, V. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Eylül 19-22, Adana.
  • Layard, R., Nickell, S., ve Jackman, R. (1991) Unemployment, Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • Levin A., Lin C. ve Chu J. (2002) “Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties” Journal of Econometrics, 108: 1-24.
  • Leon-Ledesma, M.A. ve McAdam, P. (2004) “Unemployment, Hysteresis and Transition” Scottish Journal of Political Eco- nomy, 51(3):377-401.
  • Liu, J., Wu, S. ve Zidek, J.V.(1997) “On Segmented Multivari- ate Regressions” Statistica Sinica, 7: 497-525.
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999) “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61: 631-652.
  • Murray, C.J. ve Pappell, H. (2001) “Testing for Unit Roots in Panels in The Presence Of Structural Change With An App- lication to OECD Unemployment” Badi H. Baltagi, Tho- mas B. Fomby ve R. Carter Hill (eds.) Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels (Advances in Eco- nometrics, Volume 15), Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Pazarlıoğlu, V. ve Çevik, İ.E (2005) “Ratchet Model Uygula- ması :Türkiye Örneği”, VII.Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, İstanbul.
  • Pazarlıoğlu, V. ve Çevik, İ.E (2007) “Ratchet Model Uygula- ması: 1939-2005 Dönemi Türkiye Örneği” Trakya Üniversi- tesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9: 17-34.
  • Pesaran, H. (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1968) “The Role of Monetary Policy” American Economic Review, 58: 1-17.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1999) “Behind This Structural Boom: The Role of Asset Valuations” American Economic Review, 89: 63-68.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. (1999) “Unit Root Log Periodogram Regressi- on”, Unpublished Manuscript, Yale University.
  • Pissarides, C. (1990) Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, Ox- ford, Basil Blackwell.
  • Roed, K. (1996) “Unemployment Hysteresis - Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries” Empirical Economics 21: 589- 600
  • Smyth, R. (2003) “Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests” The Australian Economic Review, 36: 181-192.
  • Song, F.M. ve Wu, Y. (1998) “Hysteresis Unemployment: Evi- dence from OECD Countries” The Quarterly Review of Eco- nomics and Finance, 38: 181-192.

Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey

Year 2011, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 205 - 216, 01.05.2011

Bülent Güloğlu M.serdar İspir

Abstract

In this study we investigate whether sector-specific unemployment in Turkey is explained by natural rate of unemployment or hysteresis hypothesis. We employ sectoral unemployment rate in nine Turkish leading sectors covering the period 1988-2008 and test the stationarity of unemployment rates. For the test we use a recently developed panel unit root test which allows for different number of structural breaks in unemployment series in different dates. Unlike the other studies, the results obtained in this study show that the sectoral unemployment can be explained by a special case of the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis

Keywords

Natural unemployment rate hysteresis panel unit root test

References

  • Arestis, P. ve Mariscal, I.BF. (1999) “Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in OECD Countries” Economics Letters, 65: 149–56.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (1998) “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes” Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78.
  • Barışık, S. ve Çevik, İ.E. (2008) “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Histerisi- nin Yapısal Kırılma ve Güçlü Hafıza Modellemesi ile Sektö- rel Analizi” TİSK Akademi, 3(6):67-87.
  • Barro, R. (1988) “The Natural Rate Theory Reconsidered: The Persistence of Unemployment” American Economic Review, 78(2): 32-37.
  • Blanchard, O. J. ve Summers, L. H. (1986) “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem” NBER Working Paper Series, No.1950.
  • Blanchard, O. ve Summers, L. (1987) “Hysteresis in Umemp- loyment” European Economic Review, 31(1): 288-95.
  • Blanchard, O. ve Wolfers, J. (2000) “The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence” Economic Journal, 110(462): 1-33.
  • Breusch, T. ve Pagan, A. (1980) “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Application to Model Specifications in Economet- rics” Reviews of Economics Studies, 47: 239-253.
  • Brunello, G. (1990) “Hysteresis and the Japanese Unemploy- ment Problem: A Preliminary Investigation” Oxford Econo- mic Papers, 42: 483-500.
  • Camarero, M., Carrion-i-Silverstre, J.L. ve Tamarit, C. (2006) “Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment in OECD Count- ries: New Evidence Using Stationarity Panel Tests with Bre- aks” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68: 167–82.
  • Camarero, M., Carrion-i-Silverstre, J.L. ve Tamarit, C. (2008) “Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evi- dence Using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks, Review of Development Economics” Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 620-635.
  • Candelon, B., Dupuy, A, ve Gil-Alana, L.A. (2009) “The Na- ture of Occupational Unemployment Rates in the United States: Hysteresis or Structural?” Applied Economics, 41: 2483–2493.
  • Caporale, G.M. ve Gil-Alana, L.A. (2007) “Modelling the US, UK and Japanese Unemployment Rates: Fractional Integra- tion and Structural Breaks” Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 52(11): 4998-5013.
  • Carrion-i-Silverstre, J.L., Del Barrio-Castro, T. ve Lopez-Ba- zo, E. (2005a) “Breaking the Panels: An Application to the GDP Per Capita”, Econometrics Journal, 8(2):159-175.
  • Carrion-i-Silverstre, J.L. (2005b) “Health Care Expenditure and GDP: Are They Broken Stationary?” Journal of Health Economics, 24(5):939-854.
  • Chang, T., Nieh, K.C. ve Wei, C.C. (2005) “An Empirical Note on Testing Hysteresis in Unemployment for Ten Euro- pean Countries: Panel SURADF Approach” Applied Econo- mics Letters, 12: 881-886.
  • Choi, I. (2001) “Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data” Journal of International Money and Finance, 20: 229-272.
  • Cuestas, J.C. ve Gil-Alana, L.A. (2009) “Unemployment Hyste- resis, Structural Changes, Non-Linearities and Fractional In- tegration in Central and Eastern Europe” Nottingham Uni- versity, Discussion Papers, No. 2009/6, ISSN: 1478-9396.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979) “Distribution of the Es- timators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427–431.
  • Feve, P., Henin, P.Y. ve Jolivaldt, P. (2003), “Testing for Hyste- resis: Unemployment Persistence and Wage Adjustment” Empirical Economics, 28: 535–552.
  • Friedman, M. (1968) “The Role of Monetary Policy” American Economic Review, 58: 1-17.
  • Geweke, J. ve Porter-Hudak, S. (1983) “The Estimation and Application of Long Memory Time Series Models” Journal of Time Series Analysis, 4: 221-238.
  • Gil-Alana, L.A. ve Henry, S.G.B. (2003) “Fractional Integrati- on and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment” Oxford Bulle- tin of Economics and Statistics, 65(2): 221-239.
  • Gray, D. (2004) “Persistent Regional Unemployment Differen- tials Revisited”, Regional Studies, 38: 167-176.
  • Hadri, K.(2000) “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Pa- nels” Econometrics Journal, 3: 148-161.
  • Im, K., Pesaran, H. ve Shin, Y. (2003) “Testing for Unit Ro- ots in Heterogenous Panels” Journal of Econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
  • Im, K. S. ve Lee, J. (2001) “Panel LM Unit Root Test with Level Shifts,” Technical Report, Department of Economics, University of Central Florida.
  • Küçükkale, Y. (2001) “Doğal İşsizlik Oranındaki Keynesyen İs- teri Üzerine Klasik bir inceleme: Kalman Filtre Tahmin Tek- niği ile Türkiye Örneği 1950-1995”, V. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Eylül 19-22, Adana.
  • Layard, R., Nickell, S., ve Jackman, R. (1991) Unemployment, Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • Levin A., Lin C. ve Chu J. (2002) “Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties” Journal of Econometrics, 108: 1-24.
  • Leon-Ledesma, M.A. ve McAdam, P. (2004) “Unemployment, Hysteresis and Transition” Scottish Journal of Political Eco- nomy, 51(3):377-401.
  • Liu, J., Wu, S. ve Zidek, J.V.(1997) “On Segmented Multivari- ate Regressions” Statistica Sinica, 7: 497-525.
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999) “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61: 631-652.
  • Murray, C.J. ve Pappell, H. (2001) “Testing for Unit Roots in Panels in The Presence Of Structural Change With An App- lication to OECD Unemployment” Badi H. Baltagi, Tho- mas B. Fomby ve R. Carter Hill (eds.) Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels (Advances in Eco- nometrics, Volume 15), Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Pazarlıoğlu, V. ve Çevik, İ.E (2005) “Ratchet Model Uygula- ması :Türkiye Örneği”, VII.Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, İstanbul.
  • Pazarlıoğlu, V. ve Çevik, İ.E (2007) “Ratchet Model Uygula- ması: 1939-2005 Dönemi Türkiye Örneği” Trakya Üniversi- tesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9: 17-34.
  • Pesaran, H. (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1968) “The Role of Monetary Policy” American Economic Review, 58: 1-17.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1999) “Behind This Structural Boom: The Role of Asset Valuations” American Economic Review, 89: 63-68.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. (1999) “Unit Root Log Periodogram Regressi- on”, Unpublished Manuscript, Yale University.
  • Pissarides, C. (1990) Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, Ox- ford, Basil Blackwell.
  • Roed, K. (1996) “Unemployment Hysteresis - Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries” Empirical Economics 21: 589- 600
  • Smyth, R. (2003) “Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests” The Australian Economic Review, 36: 181-192.
  • Song, F.M. ve Wu, Y. (1998) “Hysteresis Unemployment: Evi- dence from OECD Countries” The Quarterly Review of Eco- nomics and Finance, 38: 181-192.
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA46TY94AB
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Bülent Güloğlu This is me

M.serdar İspir This is me

Publication Date May 1, 2011
Published in Issue Year 2011 Volume: 11 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Güloğlu, B., & İspir, M. (2011). Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey. Ege Academic Review, 11(2), 205-216.
AMA Güloğlu B, İspir M. Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey. ear. May 2011;11(2):205-216.
Chicago Güloğlu, Bülent, and M.serdar İspir. “Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey”. Ege Academic Review 11, no. 2 (May 2011): 205-16.
EndNote Güloğlu B, İspir M (May 1, 2011) Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey. Ege Academic Review 11 2 205–216.
IEEE B. Güloğlu and M. İspir, “Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey”, ear, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 205–216, 2011.
ISNAD Güloğlu, Bülent - İspir, M.serdar. “Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey”. Ege Academic Review 11/2 (May 2011), 205-216.
JAMA Güloğlu B, İspir M. Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey. ear. 2011;11:205–216.
MLA Güloğlu, Bülent and M.serdar İspir. “Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey”. Ege Academic Review, vol. 11, no. 2, 2011, pp. 205-16.
Vancouver Güloğlu B, İspir M. Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specific Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey. ear. 2011;11(2):205-16.