BibTex RIS Cite

İthalat-İhracat-Döviz Kuru Bağımlılığı: Bootstrap ile Düzeltilmiş Nedensellik Testi Uygulaması

Year 2012, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 137 - 148, 01.05.2012

Ertuğrul Yıldırım Ferdi Kesikoğlu

Abstract

2003:1 ile 2011:9 döneminde Türkiye’nin ithalat-ihracat-reel döviz kuru arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin ampirik olarak araştırıldığı bu çalışmada Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) tarafından önerilen kaldıraçlı bootstrap tekniğiyle düzeltilmiş MWALD testi uygulanmıştır. Toplam ihracat-toplam ithalat, toplam ihracat-ara malı ithalatı, toplam ihracat-sermaye malı ithalatı, toplam ithalat-tüketim malı ihracatı ve sermaye malı ithalatıtüketim malı ihracatı arasında iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Toplam ihracattan tüketim malı ithalatına doğru, tüketim malı ihracatından tüketim malı ithalatına ve ara malı ithalatına doğru tek yönlü ilişki bulunmuştur. Döviz kuru ile ithalat ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerine yönelik tahminlerin tamamında bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmamıştır. Bulgular bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde, ithalat ve ihracat arasındaki bağımlılığın döviz kuru politikasını yansız hale getirdiğini ima etmektedir

Keywords

İthalat ihracat döviz kuru nedensellik

References

  • Akaike, H. (1974) “A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification” IEEE Transactions on Automatic Contro, 19(6):716-723.
  • Aktaş C. (2009) “Türkiye’nin İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik Analizi” Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 18(2):35-47.
  • Aktaş C. (2010) “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru ile İthalat ve İhracat Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi” Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(11):123-140.
  • Amiti, M., Konings J. (2007) “Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia” American Economic Review, 97:1611-1638.
  • Aydın, M.F., Çıplak, U. And Yücel, M.E. (2004) “Export Supply and Import Demand Models for Turkısh Economy” The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, No:04-09.
  • Balassa, B. (1978) “Export and Economic Growth: Further Evidence” Journal of Development Economics, 5:181-189.
  • Bas, M. (2009) “Trade, Foreign Inputs and Firms’ Decisions: Theory and Evidence” CEPII Working Paper, No:2009-35.
  • Bhagwati, J. (1988) “Export Promotion Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence” World Bank, Research Observer, 3:27–58.
  • Coe, D.T., Helpman, E.(1995) “International R&D Spillovers” European Economic Revie, 39: 859-887.
  • Coe, D.T., Helpman, E. and Hoffmaister, A. (1997) “North-South Research and Development Spillovers” Economic Journal 107:134-149.
  • Deardorff A. V. (2001) “Fragmentation in Simple Trade Models” North American Journal of Economics and Finance,12:121-137.
  • Doraisami, A. (1996) “Export Growth and Economic Growth, a Reexamination of Some Time- Series: Evidence of The Malaysian Experience” Journal of Developing Areas, 30:223- 230.
  • Feder, G. (1982) “On Exports and Economic Growth” Journal of Development Economics, 12:59-73.
  • Feenstra, R.C., Hanson, G.H. (1996) “Globalization, Outsourcing, and Wage Inequality” American Economic Review, 86:240-245.
  • Gerni C., Emsen Ö.S. ve Değer M.K. (2008) “İthalata Dayalı İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: 1980- 2006 Türkiye Deneyimi” Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi 2. Ulusal İktisat Kongresi Şubat 20-22, İzmir.
  • Ghartey, E.E. (1993) “Causal Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan, Japan and The US” Applied Economics, 25:1145-1152.
  • Giles J. A., Williams C.L. (2000) “Export-led Growth: a Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-Causality Results Part 1” The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9(3):261-337.
  • Goldberg, P., Khandelwal, A., Pavcnik N. and Topalova P. (2009) “Trade Liberalization and New Imported Inputs” American Economic Review, 99:494-500.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods” Econometrica, 37:424-438.
  • Granger, C. W.J., Newbold, P. (1974) “Spurious Regression in Econometrics” Journal of Econometrics, 2:111-120.
  • Grossman, G., Helpman, E. (1991) Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, Cambridge, MA MIT Press.
  • Gül E., Ekinci A. (2006) “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru ile İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İliskisi: 1990–2006” Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16:165-190.
  • Hacker R.S., Hatemi, J,A. (2006) “Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application” Applied Economics, 38: 1489-1500.
  • Halpern, L., Koren, M. and Szeidl A. (2009) “Imports and productivity,” CeFIG Working Paper Series, No:8.
  • Hannan, E. J., Quinn, B. G. (1979) “The Determination of the Order of an Autoregressive” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 41(2):190-195.
  • Hatemi, J.A. (2003) “A New Method to Choose Optimal Lag Order in Stable and Unstable VAR Models” Applied Economics Letters, 10(3):135-137.
  • Helpman, E., Krugman, P. (1985) Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • Hummels, D., Ishii, J. And Yi, K.M. (2001) “The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade” Journal of International Economics, 56:75-96.
  • Kasahara, H., Rodrigue J. (2008) “Does the Use of Imported Intermediates Increase Productivity? Plantlevel Evidence” Journal of Development Economics, 87:106- 118.
  • Kavoussi, R.M. (1984) “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence” Journal of Development Economics, 14:241–250.
  • Keller, W. (2000) “Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth” World Bank Economic Review, 14(1):17-47.
  • Krueger, A. (1978) Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalisation Attempts and Consequences, Cambridge, Ballinger.
  • Kunst, R.M., Marin, D. (1989) “On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis” Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(4):699-703.
  • Marin, D. (1992) “Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(4):678-688.
  • Michaely, M. (1977) “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation” Journal of Development Integrated Processes” Journal of Econometrics, 66:225-250. Economics, 4:49-53.
  • Mody A. ve Yılmaz, K. (2002) “Imported Machinery for Export Competitiveness” World Bank Economic Review, 16(1):23-48.
  • Oxley, L. (1993) “Cointegration, Causality and Export-Led Growth in Portugal, 1865-1985” Economic Letters, 43:163-166.
  • Schwarz, G.E. (1978) “Estimating the Dimension of A model” Annals of Statistics, 6(2):461-464.
  • Segerstrom, P.S., Anant, T.C. and Dinopoulos, E. (1990) “A Shumpeterian Model of the Product Life Cycle” American Economic Review, 80(5):1077-1091.
  • Sims, C. A., Stock, J. H. ve Watson, M. W. (1990) “Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots” Econometrica, 58:133-44.
  • Sivri, U., Usta, C.(2001) “Reel Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişki” Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(4):1-9.
  • Soyyiğit, S. (2010) “Türkiye’de İhracata Dayalı Sanayileşme Stratejisi Uygulamaları ve İmalat Sanayii Üzerinde Etkinliği: Nedensellik Analizi (1990-2008)” İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 60(2):135-156.
  • Terzi, H., Zengin, A. (1999) “Kur Politikasının Dıs Ticaret Dengesini Sağlamada Etkinliği: Türkiye Uygulaması” Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 10(33):48-65.
  • Thornton, J. (1996) “Cointegration, Causality and Export-Led Growth in Mexico” Economic Letters, 50:413-416.
  • Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995) “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes” Journal of Econometrics, 66:225-250.
  • Tuncer, İ. (2002) “Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980-2000)” Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Enstitü Dergisi, 9(9):90-106.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, (TCMB), www.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • Vernon, R. (1996) “International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(2):190-207.
  • Wang, J., Xu, B. (1999) “Capital Goods Trade and R&D Spillovers in the OECD” Canadian Journal of Economics, 32:1258-1274.
  • Yılmaz Ö., Kaya, V. (2007) “İhracat, İthalat ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Bir VAR Modeli” İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 22(50):69-84.

Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test

Year 2012, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 137 - 148, 01.05.2012

Ertuğrul Yıldırım Ferdi Kesikoğlu

Abstract

In this study which empirically investigates import-export-real exchange rate causality relationships for Turkey in the period of 2003:1-2011:9 it was used a leveraged bootstrap-corrected MWALD test suggested by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006). It was found that there are bi-directional causality relationships between total export-total import, total export-intermediate good import, total export-capital good import, total importconsumer good export and capital good import-consumer good export. It was obtained that there was unidirectional causality relationships from total export to consumer good import, from consumer good export to consumer good import and to intermediate good import. I was found causality relationships neither between real exchange rate and import nor real exchange rate and import. When the findings totally evaluated, it was imply that dependence between import and export lead to neutrality of exchange rate policy

Keywords

Import export exchange rate causality

References

  • Akaike, H. (1974) “A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification” IEEE Transactions on Automatic Contro, 19(6):716-723.
  • Aktaş C. (2009) “Türkiye’nin İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik Analizi” Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 18(2):35-47.
  • Aktaş C. (2010) “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru ile İthalat ve İhracat Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi” Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(11):123-140.
  • Amiti, M., Konings J. (2007) “Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia” American Economic Review, 97:1611-1638.
  • Aydın, M.F., Çıplak, U. And Yücel, M.E. (2004) “Export Supply and Import Demand Models for Turkısh Economy” The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, No:04-09.
  • Balassa, B. (1978) “Export and Economic Growth: Further Evidence” Journal of Development Economics, 5:181-189.
  • Bas, M. (2009) “Trade, Foreign Inputs and Firms’ Decisions: Theory and Evidence” CEPII Working Paper, No:2009-35.
  • Bhagwati, J. (1988) “Export Promotion Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence” World Bank, Research Observer, 3:27–58.
  • Coe, D.T., Helpman, E.(1995) “International R&D Spillovers” European Economic Revie, 39: 859-887.
  • Coe, D.T., Helpman, E. and Hoffmaister, A. (1997) “North-South Research and Development Spillovers” Economic Journal 107:134-149.
  • Deardorff A. V. (2001) “Fragmentation in Simple Trade Models” North American Journal of Economics and Finance,12:121-137.
  • Doraisami, A. (1996) “Export Growth and Economic Growth, a Reexamination of Some Time- Series: Evidence of The Malaysian Experience” Journal of Developing Areas, 30:223- 230.
  • Feder, G. (1982) “On Exports and Economic Growth” Journal of Development Economics, 12:59-73.
  • Feenstra, R.C., Hanson, G.H. (1996) “Globalization, Outsourcing, and Wage Inequality” American Economic Review, 86:240-245.
  • Gerni C., Emsen Ö.S. ve Değer M.K. (2008) “İthalata Dayalı İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: 1980- 2006 Türkiye Deneyimi” Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi 2. Ulusal İktisat Kongresi Şubat 20-22, İzmir.
  • Ghartey, E.E. (1993) “Causal Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan, Japan and The US” Applied Economics, 25:1145-1152.
  • Giles J. A., Williams C.L. (2000) “Export-led Growth: a Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-Causality Results Part 1” The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9(3):261-337.
  • Goldberg, P., Khandelwal, A., Pavcnik N. and Topalova P. (2009) “Trade Liberalization and New Imported Inputs” American Economic Review, 99:494-500.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods” Econometrica, 37:424-438.
  • Granger, C. W.J., Newbold, P. (1974) “Spurious Regression in Econometrics” Journal of Econometrics, 2:111-120.
  • Grossman, G., Helpman, E. (1991) Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, Cambridge, MA MIT Press.
  • Gül E., Ekinci A. (2006) “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru ile İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İliskisi: 1990–2006” Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16:165-190.
  • Hacker R.S., Hatemi, J,A. (2006) “Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application” Applied Economics, 38: 1489-1500.
  • Halpern, L., Koren, M. and Szeidl A. (2009) “Imports and productivity,” CeFIG Working Paper Series, No:8.
  • Hannan, E. J., Quinn, B. G. (1979) “The Determination of the Order of an Autoregressive” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 41(2):190-195.
  • Hatemi, J.A. (2003) “A New Method to Choose Optimal Lag Order in Stable and Unstable VAR Models” Applied Economics Letters, 10(3):135-137.
  • Helpman, E., Krugman, P. (1985) Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • Hummels, D., Ishii, J. And Yi, K.M. (2001) “The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade” Journal of International Economics, 56:75-96.
  • Kasahara, H., Rodrigue J. (2008) “Does the Use of Imported Intermediates Increase Productivity? Plantlevel Evidence” Journal of Development Economics, 87:106- 118.
  • Kavoussi, R.M. (1984) “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence” Journal of Development Economics, 14:241–250.
  • Keller, W. (2000) “Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth” World Bank Economic Review, 14(1):17-47.
  • Krueger, A. (1978) Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalisation Attempts and Consequences, Cambridge, Ballinger.
  • Kunst, R.M., Marin, D. (1989) “On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis” Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(4):699-703.
  • Marin, D. (1992) “Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(4):678-688.
  • Michaely, M. (1977) “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation” Journal of Development Integrated Processes” Journal of Econometrics, 66:225-250. Economics, 4:49-53.
  • Mody A. ve Yılmaz, K. (2002) “Imported Machinery for Export Competitiveness” World Bank Economic Review, 16(1):23-48.
  • Oxley, L. (1993) “Cointegration, Causality and Export-Led Growth in Portugal, 1865-1985” Economic Letters, 43:163-166.
  • Schwarz, G.E. (1978) “Estimating the Dimension of A model” Annals of Statistics, 6(2):461-464.
  • Segerstrom, P.S., Anant, T.C. and Dinopoulos, E. (1990) “A Shumpeterian Model of the Product Life Cycle” American Economic Review, 80(5):1077-1091.
  • Sims, C. A., Stock, J. H. ve Watson, M. W. (1990) “Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots” Econometrica, 58:133-44.
  • Sivri, U., Usta, C.(2001) “Reel Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişki” Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(4):1-9.
  • Soyyiğit, S. (2010) “Türkiye’de İhracata Dayalı Sanayileşme Stratejisi Uygulamaları ve İmalat Sanayii Üzerinde Etkinliği: Nedensellik Analizi (1990-2008)” İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 60(2):135-156.
  • Terzi, H., Zengin, A. (1999) “Kur Politikasının Dıs Ticaret Dengesini Sağlamada Etkinliği: Türkiye Uygulaması” Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 10(33):48-65.
  • Thornton, J. (1996) “Cointegration, Causality and Export-Led Growth in Mexico” Economic Letters, 50:413-416.
  • Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995) “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes” Journal of Econometrics, 66:225-250.
  • Tuncer, İ. (2002) “Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980-2000)” Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Enstitü Dergisi, 9(9):90-106.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, (TCMB), www.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • Vernon, R. (1996) “International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(2):190-207.
  • Wang, J., Xu, B. (1999) “Capital Goods Trade and R&D Spillovers in the OECD” Canadian Journal of Economics, 32:1258-1274.
  • Yılmaz Ö., Kaya, V. (2007) “İhracat, İthalat ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Bir VAR Modeli” İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 22(50):69-84.
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA95VK86ZR
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ertuğrul Yıldırım This is me

Ferdi Kesikoğlu This is me

Publication Date May 1, 2012
Published in Issue Year 2012 Volume: 12 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Yıldırım, E., & Kesikoğlu, F. (2012). Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test. Ege Academic Review, 12(2), 137-148.
AMA Yıldırım E, Kesikoğlu F. Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test. ear. May 2012;12(2):137-148.
Chicago Yıldırım, Ertuğrul, and Ferdi Kesikoğlu. “Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test”. Ege Academic Review 12, no. 2 (May 2012): 137-48.
EndNote Yıldırım E, Kesikoğlu F (May 1, 2012) Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test. Ege Academic Review 12 2 137–148.
IEEE E. Yıldırım and F. Kesikoğlu, “Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test”, ear, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 137–148, 2012.
ISNAD Yıldırım, Ertuğrul - Kesikoğlu, Ferdi. “Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test”. Ege Academic Review 12/2 (May 2012), 137-148.
JAMA Yıldırım E, Kesikoğlu F. Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test. ear. 2012;12:137–148.
MLA Yıldırım, Ertuğrul and Ferdi Kesikoğlu. “Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test”. Ege Academic Review, vol. 12, no. 2, 2012, pp. 137-48.
Vancouver Yıldırım E, Kesikoğlu F. Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test. ear. 2012;12(2):137-48.