Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case

Year 2014, Volume: 14 Issue: 3, 335 - 344, 01.08.2014

Taha Bahadır Saraç

Abstract

In this study which examines the hysteresis effect between January 2005 and July 2013 in Turkey and whether the unemployment series rates can be used in studying hysteresis effect or not, it has been concluded that the unemployment series and labor force participation rate series are stable according to the results of linear unit root test and the unemployment series are stable only at one regime according to the result of nonlinear unit root test. In the light of these results, it has been suggested that the hysteresis effect at unemployment in Turkey is valid only in one regime and the unemployment rates variable can be used to reflect hysteresis effect at unemployment

Keywords

Unemployment, hysteresis effect, nonlinear unit root test

İşsizlikte Histeri Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Türkiye’de (2005:01-2013:07) döneminde işsizlikte histeri etkisi ile işsizlikte histeri etkisinin araştırılmasında işsizlik oranları serisinin kullanılıp kullanılamayacağının incelendiği bu çalışmada, doğrusal birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre işsizlik ve işgücüne katılma oranı serilerinin durağan olduğu, doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi sonucuna göre sadece işsizlik oranları serisinin bir rejimde durağan olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuçlar ışığında, Türkiye’de işsizlikte histeri etkisinin sadece bir rejimde geçerli olduğu ve işsizlikte histeri etkisini yansıtması anlamında işsizlik oranları değişkeninin kullanılabileceği ortaya konulmuş olmaktadır

Keywords

İşsizlik, histeri etkisi, doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi

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