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Climate change impacts on the potential distribution of Taxus baccata L. in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Bolkar Mountains (Turkey) from Last Glacial Maximum to the future

Year 2018, Volume: 6 Issue: 3, 69 - 82, 26.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.31195/ejejfs.435962

Abstract

The Pleistocene is an important period for assessing the effects of climate change on biological diversity. In the beginning of this period, many tree species disappeared in the flora of Europe, with ongoing, but smaller losses later, and many tree species exhibiting repeated strong range shifts mostly at the end of the period. It is thought that some areas will be more affected from possible climate change. The Mediterranean Basin is the most important among the mentioned sensitive areas. Species with scattered, relict populations in the region would be more affected by future climate change. One such species is Taxus baccata. Taxus baccata, which is distributed throughout the temperate zones of Northern hemisphere, is the only species of Taxus to be naturally distributed in Turkey. Apart from its general dispersal area in the north of Turkey, Taxus baccata is seen in small groups in protected local areas in southern Anatolia.

The aim of this study is to determine the potential effects of past and future climate change on the distribution of Taxus baccata in Bolkar Mountains, using species distribution modelling. We studied how the potential distribution has been affected by the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate and the subsequent climate shift to the present, and it can be expected to be affected by future climate change, as represented by a range of future climate change scenarios. For this purpose, Maxent is used for determining the distribution of Taxus baccata. Our Maxent model results show that the AUC values are calculated as 0,85 and 0,80 in sequence.

                Our results show that the Taxus baccata would have found suitable conditions in the Bolkar Mountains area even during the LGM, pointing to this as an important refuge area. With also find that the potential distribution in Kadincik Valley (on the southern slope of Bolkar Mountains) of Taxus baccata has been reduced with the shift to a Holocene climate, and the distribution in Taurus Mountains is likely diminish even further under future climate change.







Our results show that Taxus baccata is a cool-climate relict in southern Turkey and that its distribution is likely to come under further pressure from future climate change. This situation is likely shared with many other temperate plant species persisting with small populations in mountain areas in the region.

References

  • Ackerly, D.D., Loarie S.R., Cornwell W.K., Kraft H.J., Weiss S.B., Hamilton H. & Branciforte R. (2010). The geographyof climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distributions 16: 476–487
  • Aitken, S., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J., Wang, T. & Curtis, McLane S. (2008). Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications 1(1): 91-111
  • Avcı, M. (2005). Çeşitlilik ve endemizm açısından Türkiye’nin bitki örtüsü. İstanbul Üniversitesi Edebiyat Fakültesi Coğrafya Bölümü Coğrafya Dergisi 13:27-55.
  • Avcı, M. (2011). Moleküler Biyocoğrafya: Gelişimi, kapsamı, paleobiyocoğrafya ve biyolojik çeşitlilik açısından bir değerlendirme: Fiziki Coğrafya Araştırmaları (ed. by D. Ekinci) Türk Coğrafya Kurumu, İstanbul, pp.241-266.
  • Avcı, M. (2014). Paleocoğrafya: Resimli türkiye florası I (ed. by A. Güner & T. Ekim) Ali Nihat Gökyiğit Vakfı, Flora Araştırmaları Derneği ve Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları Yayını, İstanbul, pp. 49-75.
  • Baldwin, R. (2009). Use of maximum entropy modeling in wildlife research. Entropy11: 854-866.
  • Bennett, K., Tzedakis, P. & Willis, K. (1991). Quaternary refugia of north european trees. Journal of Biogeography 18:103-115.
  • Beton, D. (2011). Effects of climate change on biodiversity: a case study on four plant species using distribution models. Ortadoğu Teknik Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Doktora Tezi, Ankara
  • Biltekin, D., Speranta-Maria, P., Suc, J-P., Qu´ezel, P., Jim´enez-Moreno, G., Yavuz, N. & Çağatay, M. (2015). Anatolia: a long-time plant refuge area documented by pollen records over the last 23 million years. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology (215):1-22
  • Bottema, S. & Woldring, H. (1984). Late Quaternary vegetation and climate of Southwest Turkey II. Palaeohistoria 26:123-149
  • Coode, M. & Cullen, J. (1965). Taxus L.: Flora of Turkey and the east aegean islands (Vol.I ) (ed. by P. Davis, M. Coode & J. Cullen) Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh, pp. 75-76.
  • Davis, P.H. (1965-1985). Flora of Turkey and the east aegean islands (Vol1-9) Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh.
  • Davis, P.H., Mill, R. & Tan, K. (1988). Flora of Turkey and the East Aegean islands (Vol 10) Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh..
  • Doğan, U., (2012). Akarsu Süreçleri: Kuvaterner Bilimi (ed. by N Kazancı & A Gürbüz) Ankara Üniversitesi Yayınları, Ankara, pp.281-306:
  • Donatella, M., Rita, D., Aranabarri, J., Filetcher, W. & Gonzalez Samperiz, P. (2017). Quaternary disappearance of tree taxa from southern europe: timing and trends. Quaternary Science Reviews 163: 23-55.
  • Drescher-Schneider, R., de Beaulieu, J.L., Magny, M., Walter-Simonnet, A.V., Bossuet, G., Millet, L., . . . Drescher, A. (2007). Vegetation history, climate and human impact over the last 15.000 years at Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Central Italy). Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 16:279-299.
  • Eastwood, W. (2004). East Mediterranean vegetation and climate change: Balkan Biodiversity: Pattern and Process in the European Hotspot (ed. by H. Griffiths, B. Kryštufek & J. Reed) Springer Science Business Media, Holland, pp.25-48.
  • EEA (2004). Impacts of Europe's changing climate( an indicator-based assesment) European Environment Agency, Denmark
  • Elith, J. (2002). Quantitative methods for modeling species habitat: comperative performance and an aplication to australian plants (ed. by S Ferson & M Burgman) Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology Springer New York, pp. 39-58.
  • Farjon, A. & Filer, D. (2013). An atlas of the world’s an analysis of their distribution. Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Status Boston, Brill.
  • Güner, A., Özhatay, N., Ekim, T. & Başer, K. (2008). Flora of Turkey and East Agean Islands (Vol 11). Edinburg, Edinburg University Press.
  • Hewitt, G. (1996). Some genetic consequences of ice ages, and their role in divergence and speciation. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 58: 247–276.
  • Hewitt, G. (1999). Post-glacial re-colonization of European biota. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 68:87-112.
  • Hijmans. R, Cameron S, Parra J, Jones P & Jarvis A (2005) Very hight resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965-1978.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). The physical science basis. contribution of working group to the fourth assessment. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014). Climate change 2014 synthesis report, contribution of working groups i, ii and iii to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ed. by Core Writing Team, R Pachauri & L Meyer) Switzerland, Geneva.
  • Kayhan, İ. (2012). Kuvaterner'de deniz seviyeleri değişmeleri: Kuvaterner Bilimi (ed. by N. Kazancı & A. Gürbüz) Ankara Üniversitesi Yayınları, Ankara, pp.59-78.
  • Martinetto, E., Momohara, A., Bizzarri, R., Baldanza, A., Delfino, M., Esu, D. & Sardella. R. (2017). Late persistence and deterministic extinction of “humid thermophilous plant taxa of East Asian affinity” (HUTEA) in Southern Europe. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology (467): 211-231.
  • Medail, F., & Diadema, K. (2009). Glacial refugia influence plant diversity patterns in the Mediterranean Basin. Journal of Biogeography 36: 1333-1345.
  • Oliveira, M., Hamilton, S., Calheiros, D., Jacobi, C. & Latini, R. (2010). Modeling the potential distribution of the invasive Golden Mussel Limnoperna Fortunei in the Paraguay river system using limnological variables. Brazilian Journal of Biology 70(3): 831-840.
  • Parker, K. & Markwith, S. (2007). Expanding biogeographic horizons with genetic approaches. Geography Compass 1(3): 246-274.
  • Pearson, R., Christopher, J.R., Nakamura, M. & Peterson, A. (2007). Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in madagascar. Journal of Biogeography 34:102-117.
  • Phillips, S. & Dudik, M. (2008). Modelling of species distribution with maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evalution. Ecography 31(2): 161-175.
  • Phillips, S., Robert, P., Anderso, C. & Robert, E. (2006). Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distribution. Ecological Modeling 190(3-4): 231-259.
  • Sadori, L., Giraudi, C., Petitti, P., & Ramrath, A. (2004). Human impact at Lago di Mezzano (Central Italy) during the bronze age: a multidisciplinary approach. Quaternary International 113(1): 5-17.
  • Sarıkaya, M. (2012). Kuvaterner buzullaşmaları; yayılımı ve zamanlası: Kuvaterner Bilimi (ed. by N. Kazancı & A. Gürbüz), Ankara Üniversitesi Yayınları, Ankara, pp. 41-58.
  • Svenning, J.C., Normand, S. & Kageyama, M. (2008). Glacial refugia of temperate trees in Europe: insights from species distribution modelling. Journal of Ecolog 96(6): 1117-1127
  • Turoğlu, H. (2011). Buzullar ve Buzul Jeomorfolojisi. Çantay Kitapevi, İstanbul.
  • van Zeist, W., Woldring, H. & Stapert, D. (1975). Late Quaternary vegetation and climate of southwestern Turkey. Palaeohistoria 17: 53-143
  • Woldring, H. & Bottema, S. (2001-2002). The vegetation history of East-Central Anatolia in relation to archaeology: the Eski Acigol pollen evidence compared with the near eastern environment. Palaeohistoria 43/44: 1-34
Year 2018, Volume: 6 Issue: 3, 69 - 82, 26.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.31195/ejejfs.435962

Abstract

References

  • Ackerly, D.D., Loarie S.R., Cornwell W.K., Kraft H.J., Weiss S.B., Hamilton H. & Branciforte R. (2010). The geographyof climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distributions 16: 476–487
  • Aitken, S., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J., Wang, T. & Curtis, McLane S. (2008). Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications 1(1): 91-111
  • Avcı, M. (2005). Çeşitlilik ve endemizm açısından Türkiye’nin bitki örtüsü. İstanbul Üniversitesi Edebiyat Fakültesi Coğrafya Bölümü Coğrafya Dergisi 13:27-55.
  • Avcı, M. (2011). Moleküler Biyocoğrafya: Gelişimi, kapsamı, paleobiyocoğrafya ve biyolojik çeşitlilik açısından bir değerlendirme: Fiziki Coğrafya Araştırmaları (ed. by D. Ekinci) Türk Coğrafya Kurumu, İstanbul, pp.241-266.
  • Avcı, M. (2014). Paleocoğrafya: Resimli türkiye florası I (ed. by A. Güner & T. Ekim) Ali Nihat Gökyiğit Vakfı, Flora Araştırmaları Derneği ve Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları Yayını, İstanbul, pp. 49-75.
  • Baldwin, R. (2009). Use of maximum entropy modeling in wildlife research. Entropy11: 854-866.
  • Bennett, K., Tzedakis, P. & Willis, K. (1991). Quaternary refugia of north european trees. Journal of Biogeography 18:103-115.
  • Beton, D. (2011). Effects of climate change on biodiversity: a case study on four plant species using distribution models. Ortadoğu Teknik Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Doktora Tezi, Ankara
  • Biltekin, D., Speranta-Maria, P., Suc, J-P., Qu´ezel, P., Jim´enez-Moreno, G., Yavuz, N. & Çağatay, M. (2015). Anatolia: a long-time plant refuge area documented by pollen records over the last 23 million years. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology (215):1-22
  • Bottema, S. & Woldring, H. (1984). Late Quaternary vegetation and climate of Southwest Turkey II. Palaeohistoria 26:123-149
  • Coode, M. & Cullen, J. (1965). Taxus L.: Flora of Turkey and the east aegean islands (Vol.I ) (ed. by P. Davis, M. Coode & J. Cullen) Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh, pp. 75-76.
  • Davis, P.H. (1965-1985). Flora of Turkey and the east aegean islands (Vol1-9) Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh.
  • Davis, P.H., Mill, R. & Tan, K. (1988). Flora of Turkey and the East Aegean islands (Vol 10) Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh..
  • Doğan, U., (2012). Akarsu Süreçleri: Kuvaterner Bilimi (ed. by N Kazancı & A Gürbüz) Ankara Üniversitesi Yayınları, Ankara, pp.281-306:
  • Donatella, M., Rita, D., Aranabarri, J., Filetcher, W. & Gonzalez Samperiz, P. (2017). Quaternary disappearance of tree taxa from southern europe: timing and trends. Quaternary Science Reviews 163: 23-55.
  • Drescher-Schneider, R., de Beaulieu, J.L., Magny, M., Walter-Simonnet, A.V., Bossuet, G., Millet, L., . . . Drescher, A. (2007). Vegetation history, climate and human impact over the last 15.000 years at Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Central Italy). Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 16:279-299.
  • Eastwood, W. (2004). East Mediterranean vegetation and climate change: Balkan Biodiversity: Pattern and Process in the European Hotspot (ed. by H. Griffiths, B. Kryštufek & J. Reed) Springer Science Business Media, Holland, pp.25-48.
  • EEA (2004). Impacts of Europe's changing climate( an indicator-based assesment) European Environment Agency, Denmark
  • Elith, J. (2002). Quantitative methods for modeling species habitat: comperative performance and an aplication to australian plants (ed. by S Ferson & M Burgman) Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology Springer New York, pp. 39-58.
  • Farjon, A. & Filer, D. (2013). An atlas of the world’s an analysis of their distribution. Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Status Boston, Brill.
  • Güner, A., Özhatay, N., Ekim, T. & Başer, K. (2008). Flora of Turkey and East Agean Islands (Vol 11). Edinburg, Edinburg University Press.
  • Hewitt, G. (1996). Some genetic consequences of ice ages, and their role in divergence and speciation. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 58: 247–276.
  • Hewitt, G. (1999). Post-glacial re-colonization of European biota. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 68:87-112.
  • Hijmans. R, Cameron S, Parra J, Jones P & Jarvis A (2005) Very hight resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965-1978.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). The physical science basis. contribution of working group to the fourth assessment. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014). Climate change 2014 synthesis report, contribution of working groups i, ii and iii to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ed. by Core Writing Team, R Pachauri & L Meyer) Switzerland, Geneva.
  • Kayhan, İ. (2012). Kuvaterner'de deniz seviyeleri değişmeleri: Kuvaterner Bilimi (ed. by N. Kazancı & A. Gürbüz) Ankara Üniversitesi Yayınları, Ankara, pp.59-78.
  • Martinetto, E., Momohara, A., Bizzarri, R., Baldanza, A., Delfino, M., Esu, D. & Sardella. R. (2017). Late persistence and deterministic extinction of “humid thermophilous plant taxa of East Asian affinity” (HUTEA) in Southern Europe. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology (467): 211-231.
  • Medail, F., & Diadema, K. (2009). Glacial refugia influence plant diversity patterns in the Mediterranean Basin. Journal of Biogeography 36: 1333-1345.
  • Oliveira, M., Hamilton, S., Calheiros, D., Jacobi, C. & Latini, R. (2010). Modeling the potential distribution of the invasive Golden Mussel Limnoperna Fortunei in the Paraguay river system using limnological variables. Brazilian Journal of Biology 70(3): 831-840.
  • Parker, K. & Markwith, S. (2007). Expanding biogeographic horizons with genetic approaches. Geography Compass 1(3): 246-274.
  • Pearson, R., Christopher, J.R., Nakamura, M. & Peterson, A. (2007). Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in madagascar. Journal of Biogeography 34:102-117.
  • Phillips, S. & Dudik, M. (2008). Modelling of species distribution with maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evalution. Ecography 31(2): 161-175.
  • Phillips, S., Robert, P., Anderso, C. & Robert, E. (2006). Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distribution. Ecological Modeling 190(3-4): 231-259.
  • Sadori, L., Giraudi, C., Petitti, P., & Ramrath, A. (2004). Human impact at Lago di Mezzano (Central Italy) during the bronze age: a multidisciplinary approach. Quaternary International 113(1): 5-17.
  • Sarıkaya, M. (2012). Kuvaterner buzullaşmaları; yayılımı ve zamanlası: Kuvaterner Bilimi (ed. by N. Kazancı & A. Gürbüz), Ankara Üniversitesi Yayınları, Ankara, pp. 41-58.
  • Svenning, J.C., Normand, S. & Kageyama, M. (2008). Glacial refugia of temperate trees in Europe: insights from species distribution modelling. Journal of Ecolog 96(6): 1117-1127
  • Turoğlu, H. (2011). Buzullar ve Buzul Jeomorfolojisi. Çantay Kitapevi, İstanbul.
  • van Zeist, W., Woldring, H. & Stapert, D. (1975). Late Quaternary vegetation and climate of southwestern Turkey. Palaeohistoria 17: 53-143
  • Woldring, H. & Bottema, S. (2001-2002). The vegetation history of East-Central Anatolia in relation to archaeology: the Eski Acigol pollen evidence compared with the near eastern environment. Palaeohistoria 43/44: 1-34
There are 40 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Derya Evrim Koç

Jens Christian Svenning This is me

Meral Avcı

Publication Date October 26, 2018
Submission Date June 23, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 6 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Koç, D. E., Svenning, J. C., & Avcı, M. (2018). Climate change impacts on the potential distribution of Taxus baccata L. in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Bolkar Mountains (Turkey) from Last Glacial Maximum to the future. Eurasian Journal of Forest Science, 6(3), 69-82. https://doi.org/10.31195/ejejfs.435962

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ISSN: 2147-7493

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