ekonomitek Ekonomi-tek 2146-6173 2791-7991 Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı 10.65653/ekonomitek.1850152 Economic Models and Forecasting Growth Development Economics - Macro Macroeconomics (Other) Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü Büyüme Kalkınma Ekonomisi - Makro Makro İktisat (Diğer) Türkiye’de Sektörel Çeşitliliğin ve Bölgesel Uzmanlaşmanın Endüstriyel İstihdam Üzerine Etkileri The Effects of Industrial Diversity and Regional Specialization on Manufacturing Employment Growth in Türkiye https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3051-6414 Kaygalak İrfan BALIKESİR ÜNİVERSİTESİ 03 12 2026 15 1 72 97 12 27 2025 02 02 2026 Copyright © 2012, Ekonomi-tek 2012 Ekonomi-tek

Bölgesel uzmanlaşma ve endüstriyel çeşitliliğin yarattığı dışsallıklar nedeniyle ekonomik kalkınma ve gelişme üzerinde olumlu etki ettiğine dair yaygın bir kabul vardır. Bu açıdan endüstriyel uzmanlaşmanın mı yoksa endüstriyel çeşitliliğin mi ekonomik büyüme ve gelişme performansına daha çok etki ettiği önemli bir tartışma konusudur. Bu çalışma da Türkiye’de sektörel uzmanlaşma ve çeşitliliğin illerin imalat sanayi istihdam artışı üzerindeki etkisini sorgulamaktadır. Bu kapsamda illerdeki ilişkili ve ilişkisiz çeşitlilik düzeylerinin büyüme performansı üzerindeki etkisi doğrusal olmayan iki terimli regresyon analiziyle incelemektedir. Bulgular, illerin imalat sanayi istihdam artışındaki başarısını açıklamada endüstriyel çeşitlilikten ziyade bölgesel uzmanlaşmanın daha açıklayıcı olduğunu göstermektedir. Çeşitlilik türlerinin bu anlamda fark yaratan bir etkiye sahip olup olmadıkları illerin ihracat bağlantıları ile iç piyasa bağlantılarının da analize dâhil edilmesiyle test edilmektedir. Bu yönüyle çalışma konuyla ilgili hem metodolojik bir öneri sunmuş olmakta hem de teorik varsayımları sorgulayan ampirik bulgular sunmaktadır.

There is a widespread consensus that regional specialization and industrial diversity have a positive impact on economic development and growth due to the externalities they create. In this respect, whether industrial specialization or industrial diversity has a greater impact on economic growth and development is a significant topic of debate. This study examines the impact of sectoral specialization and diversity on the manufacturing employment growth in Turkish provinces. Using a nonlinear binary logistic regression model, the study analyses the role of industrial diversity by distinguishing between related and unrelated variety. The study reveals that regional specialization is a better explanatory factor than industrial diversity in predicting provincial success in manufacturing employment growth. The study tests the impact of diversity via incorporating provinces' export linkages and domestic market linkages into the analysis. In this regard, it not only offers a methodological contribution to the field but also presents empirical findings that question theoretical assumptions.

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