estuscience - se Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 2667-4211 Eskisehir Technical University 10.18038/estubtda.624363 Engineering Mühendislik APPLICABILITY OF TIME-DEPENDENT SEISMICITY MODEL FOR EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE ALONG THE NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT ZONE https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2686-6473 Sayıl Nilgün Lütfiye 09 26 2019 20 3 238 251 11 01 2018 07 01 2019 Copyright © 2000, Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 2000 Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering

Theapplicability of the time-dependent seismicity model was investigated forearthquakes occurrence along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. This region wasseparated into thirteen seismogenic zones by virtue of specific seismologicaland geomorphological criteria, and RTIMAP (regional time and magnitudepredictable) model was applied for these zones. The data including in bothinstrumental period (Ms ³ 5.5) until the beginning of 2016 and historicalperiod (Io ³ 9.0 corresponding to Ms ³ 7.0) before 1900 have been used in the study. Interevent times and magnitudes ofmainshocks generated in each zone have predictive properties expressed by theRTIMAP. For the region considered, the relationship with increasingslope between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of thepreceding earthquake shows that this model is suitable. On the basis of these equationsand taking into account the formation time and magnitude of the last events in each zone, probabilities to the next main shocks in five decades and the magnitudesof the next events were estimated.

 North Anatolian Fault Zone Time-dependent Seismicity RTIMAP Earthquake Occurrence Probability [1] Cornell CA. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull Seism Soc Am 1968; 58: 1583–1606. [2] Caputo M. Analysis of seismic risk. Nato Advanced Study Institutes Series. Appl Sci 1974; 3, Noordhoff-Leiden. [3] Shah HC, Movassate M. Seismic risk analysis of California state water project. Proc of Fifth European Conf on Earthq Eng 1975; 2: 156. [4] Papadopoulos GA, Voidomatis P. Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone. Pure Appl Geophys 1987; 125: 613-628. [5] Wesnousky SG, Scholz K, Matsuda T. Integration of geological and seismological data for analysis of seismic hazard: a case study of Japan. Bull Seism Soc Am 1984; 74: 687–708. [6] Papazachos BC. A time- and magnitude-predictable model for generation of shallow earthquakes in the Aegean Area. Pure Appl Geophys 1992; 138: 2, 287–308. [7] Stein RS, Barka AA, Dietrich JH. Progressive failure on the north Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophys J Intern 1997; 128: 594–604. [8] Parsons T, Toda S, Stein RS. Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction based probability calculation. Science 2000; 288: 661–665. [9] Mulargia F, Geller RJ. Earthquake science and seismic risk reduction. Kluwer Dordrecht, 2003. [10] Coral A. Dependence of earthquake recurrence times and independence of magnitudes on seismicity history, Tectonophysics, 2006; 424: 177–193. [11] Shanker D, Panthi A, Singh HN. Long-term seismic hazard analysis in Northeast Himalaya and its adjoining regions. Geosci J 2012; 2: 25–32. [12] Papazachos BC, Papaioannou ChA. Long-term earthquake prediction in the Aegean Area based on a time and magnitude predictable model. Pure Appl Geophys 1993; 140: 4, 593–612. [13] Mogi K. Earthquake Prediction, Academic Press. University of Tokyo, 1985. [14] Shanker D. Characteristic studies of tectonics, Seismicity and occurrences of major earthquakes in northeast India. PhD Thesis, Banaras Hindu University 117, 1990. [15] Shanker D, Singh VP. Regional Time- and Magnitude predictable Seismicity model for north-east India and vicinity. Acta Geod Geophys Hu 1996; 31: 1–2, 181–190. [16] Shanker D, Singh HN. Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment. Acta Geophys 2007; 55: 3, 302–312. [17] Paudyal H, Singh HN, Shanker D, Singh VP. Validity of Time-Predictable Seismicity Model for Nepal and its Adjoining Regions. J Nepal Geol Soc 2008; 38: 15–22. [18] Papazachos BC, Karakaisis GF, Scordilis EM. Time dependent seismicity in the continental fracture system. Boll Geof Teor Appl 2014; 55: 3, 617–639. [19] Papazachos BC, Karakaisis GF, Scordilis EM, Papaioannou ChA. Seismogenic sources in the Aegean area and their predictive properties. Bull Geol Soc Greece 2016; 10. [20] McKenzie D. Active tectonics of the Mediterranean region. Geophys J Roy Astr Soc 1972; 30: 2, 109–185. [21] Barka AA, Kadinsky-Cade K. Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity. Tectonics 1988; 7: 3, 663–684. [22] Ambraseys NN, Jackson JA. Seismicity of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500. Geophys J Int 2000; 141: 3, 1–6. [23] Barka AA. The North Anatolian fault. Ann Tectonic 1992; 6: 64–195. [24] Sayil N. Long-term earthquake prediction in western Anatolia with the time- and magnitude-predictable model. Nat Haz 2013; 66: 2, 809–834. [25] Shebalin NV, Leydecker G, Mokrushina NG, Tatevossian RE, Erteleva OO, Vassilev VYu. Earthquake Catalogue for Central and Southeastern Europe 342BC-1990AD, Final report to contract. ETNU-CT93-0087, 1998. [26] Burton PW, Xu Y, Qin C, Tselentis GA. A catalogue of seismicity in Greece and the adjacent areas for the twentieth century. Tectonophysics 2004; 390: 117–127. [27] Bayliss TJ, Burton PW. A new earthquake catalogue for Bulgaria and the conterminous Balkan high hazard region. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 2007; 7: 45–359. [28] Makropoulos K, Kaviris G, Kouskouna V. An updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and adjacent areas since 1900. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 2012; 12: 1425–1430. [29] Sayil N. Evaluation of the seismicity for the Marmara region with statistical approaches. Acta Geod Geophys 2014; 49: 265–281. [30] Al-Tarazia E, Sandvol E. Alternative models of seismic hazard evaluation along the Jordan-Dead Sea transform. Earthq Spectra 2007; 23: 1, 1–19. [31] Papazachos BC, Papadimitriou EE, Karakaisis GF, Panagiotopoulos DG. Long-term earthquake prediction in the circum-Pacific convergent belt. Pure Appl Geophys 1997; 149: 1, 173–217. [32] Ambraseys NN. Some characteristic features of the North Anatolian Fault zone. Tectonophysics 1970; 9: 43– 165. [33] Sengor AMC. The north Anatolian transform fault: Its age offset and tectonic significance. J Geol Soc London 1979; 136: 269–282. [34] Molnar P. Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics. Bull Seism Soc Am 1979; 69: 1, 115–133. [35] Gutenberg B, Richter CF. Frequency of Earthquakes in California. Bull Seism Soc Am 1944); 34: 4, 185–188. [36] Kagan YY, Jackson DD. Long-Term Earthquake Clustering. Geophys J Int 1991; 104: 117-133. [37] Weisberg S. Applied Linear Regression. Wiley, 1980. [38] Karakaisis GF. Long-term earthquake prediction along the North and East Anatolian fault zones based on the time and magnitude predictable model. Geophys J Int 1994; 116: 198–204. [39] Panagiotopoulos DG. Long term earthquake prediction in Central America and Caribbean Sea based on the time and magnitude predictable model. Bull Seism Soc Am 1995; 85: 1190–1201. [40] Qin C, Papadimitriou EE, Papazachos BC, Karakaisis GF. On the validity of regional time- and magnitude predictable model in Chin. Ann Geofis 1999; 42: 939–956. [41] Sayil N, Osmansahin I. Investigation of Seismicity of the Eastern Anatolia. Kocaeli 2003 Earthquake Symposium İzmit Turkey 2003; 580–589. [42] Akol B, Bekler T. Assessment of the statistical earthquake hazard parameters for NW Turkey. Nat Hazards 2013; 68: 2, 837–853.