Year 2018, Volume 02 , Issue 2, Pages 20 - 26 2018-12-31

Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method

Bakiye KILIÇ TOPUZ [1] , Mehmet BOZOĞLU [2] , Uğur BAŞER [3] , Nevra ALHAS EROĞLU [4]


Turkey is the first largest apricot producer in the world. In 2016, Turkey was responsible for 9,21% of world apricot production with 730 thousand tons. Turkey also generated 11,31% of world apricot exports in 2016. The main aim of this research was to forecast apricot production of Turkey for the period of 2017-2022. The data of this study was obtained from the database of the Food and Agriculture Organization and the time series covered the period of 1961-2016. Box-Jenkins Model was used to forecast apricot production. In the study, it was determined that the time series were not stationary and the series became stationary after the first difference was taken. Moving Average Model ARIMA (2, 1, 1) was determined as the most appropriate model for the stationary data type. The research results show that apricot production quantities of Turkey in 2017 was forecasted as minimum 383.206 tons, maximum 920.409 tons and, average 651.808 tons. However, Turkey’s the apricot production amount in 2022 was forecasted as minimum 271.734 tons, maximum 1.193.113 tones and average 732.423 tons. Considering the increase in demand, it is thought that apricot production will not be sufficient for the country. To protect the current leading position of the country, it is recommended that the government should give enough support to increase apricot production in Turkey.

Apricot production, Time Series Analysis, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Turkey
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Primary Language en
Subjects Mathematics
Published Date 02 (2) 2018
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0002-3607-4306
Author: Bakiye KILIÇ TOPUZ (Primary Author)
Institution: IĞDIR ÜNİVERSİTESİ, IĞDIR ZİRAAT FAKÜLTESİ
Country: Turkey


Author: Mehmet BOZOĞLU
Institution: ONDOKUZ MAYIS ÜNİVERSİTESİ
Country: Turkey


Author: Uğur BAŞER
Institution: ONDOKUZ MAYIS UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Author: Nevra ALHAS EROĞLU
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : December 31, 2018

Bibtex @research article { forecasting482914, journal = {Turkish Journal of Forecasting}, issn = {}, eissn = {2618-6594}, address = {Giresun Üniversitesi Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi İstatistik Bölümü, Güre Yerleşkesi, 28100 Merkez, Giresun}, publisher = {Giresun University}, year = {2018}, volume = {02}, pages = {20 - 26}, doi = {10.34110/forecasting.482914}, title = {Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method}, key = {cite}, author = {Kılıç Topuz, Bakiye and Bozoğlu, Mehmet and Başer, Uğur and Alhas Eroğlu, Nevra} }
APA Kılıç Topuz, B , Bozoğlu, M , Başer, U , Alhas Eroğlu, N . (2018). Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method . Turkish Journal of Forecasting , 02 (2) , 20-26 . DOI: 10.34110/forecasting.482914
MLA Kılıç Topuz, B , Bozoğlu, M , Başer, U , Alhas Eroğlu, N . "Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method" . Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018 ): 20-26 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/forecasting/issue/39381/482914>
Chicago Kılıç Topuz, B , Bozoğlu, M , Başer, U , Alhas Eroğlu, N . "Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018 ): 20-26
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method AU - Bakiye Kılıç Topuz , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Uğur Başer , Nevra Alhas Eroğlu Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482914 DO - 10.34110/forecasting.482914 T2 - Turkish Journal of Forecasting JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 20 EP - 26 VL - 02 IS - 2 SN - -2618-6594 M3 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482914 UR - https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482914 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Turkish Journal of Forecasting Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method %A Bakiye Kılıç Topuz , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Uğur Başer , Nevra Alhas Eroğlu %T Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method %D 2018 %J Turkish Journal of Forecasting %P -2618-6594 %V 02 %N 2 %R doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482914 %U 10.34110/forecasting.482914
ISNAD Kılıç Topuz, Bakiye , Bozoğlu, Mehmet , Başer, Uğur , Alhas Eroğlu, Nevra . "Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 / 2 (December 2019): 20-26 . https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482914
AMA Kılıç Topuz B , Bozoğlu M , Başer U , Alhas Eroğlu N . Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method. TJF. 2018; 02(2): 20-26.
Vancouver Kılıç Topuz B , Bozoğlu M , Başer U , Alhas Eroğlu N . Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method. Turkish Journal of Forecasting. 2018; 02(2): 20-26.