A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition

Year 2020, Volume: 04 Issue: 2, 26 - 32, 31.12.2020

Erol Egrıoglu , Robert Fildes

Abstract

M4 forecasting competition provided some useful information to forecasting literature. The provided information is based on calculated error metrics for ranking methods in the competition. The organizers of the competition calculated arithmetic mean as a descriptive statistic for evaluating the performance of all competitors. In this paper, the effect of different descriptive statistics for ranking of methods is investigated. It is found that the distribution of error metrics for competitor forecasting methods is not symmetric. Thus, the arithmetic mean descriptive statistic is not a good metric to determine the centre of non-symmetric distributions and it will not well present centre of the distribution. In this study, it is showed that the median will well present centre of distribution for error metrics of competitor forecasting methods. When the median is used as a descriptive statistic for ranking methods, the ranks of methods is different form ranks which are calculated according to the arithmetic mean descriptive statistics. Moreover, the direction accuracy metric is calculated for the best ten methods in the competition. So, the forecasting methods are ranked according to direction accuracy and it is showed that the ranks are different from the competition results.

Keywords

M4 Forecast competiton, Error metrics, Direction Accuracy

Supporting Institution

TUBİTAK

Project Number

1059B191800872

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