The Effect of Tax Revenues on Inflation in Selected OECD Countries

Year 2020, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 422 - 436, 31.05.2020

Hakan Güneş

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.2020.02.008

Abstract

If the seniorage leads revenue through state which can cause inflation at the same time, the expected income growth does not occur because of being delays in tax collection. In countries where the price elasticity of the tax system is less than 1, the Olivera-Tanzi effect, which states that the flaw in tax collection creates inflation and reduces real tax revenues, advocated a negative relationship between tax revenues and inflation. However, the main point here is the real value of taxes. In countries that adopt more liberal policies, the share of tax revenues in GDP is low. In this context, the aim of this study is to examine the effects of tax revenues on inflation in 28 OECD countries for the period 1995-2018 through panel data analysis. In the study, the horizontal cross-section dependency was neglected and first generation panel unit root tests were applied. Since the variables are stationary at the level, the cointegration test that gives the long-term relationship has not been passed. As a result of the Hausman test, it has been determined that the model will be estimated based on random effects. As a result of the study, it was determined that the increasing in tax revenues will increase inflation.

Keywords

Tax Revenues, Inflation, Olivera-Tanzi Effect, Panel Data Analysis

References

• Akıncı, A. ve Özçelik, Ö. (2018). Türkiye’de Dolaylı Vergilerin Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi.Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 110:9-20. Ayenew, W. (2016). Determinants of TaxRevenue in Ethiopia(JohansenCo-Integration Approach). International Journal of Business, Economicsand Management, 3(6): 69-84. Biçen, Ö.F., Görüş, M.Ş. ve Türköz, K. (2015). Olivera-Tanzi ve Patinkin Etkilerinin Türkiye’de Geçerliliğinin İncelenmesi. Maliye Dergisi, 168:170-185. Çalcalı, Ö. ve Altıner, A. (2019). Makro Ekonomik Açıdan Vergi Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 112:175-198. Çavuşoğlu, A.T. (2005). Vergi Gelirleri ve Kamu Harcamaları Açısından Enflasyon: Tanzi ve Ters Tanzi Etkileri. Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(3): 35-52. Durmaz, G. ve Kılınç Savrul, B. (2017). Türkiye’de Vergi Gelirleri ile Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Analizi Çerçevesinde Değerlendirilmesi. Eurasian Academy of SciencesEurasianEconometrics, Statistics&EmpricalEconomicsJournal, 6:48-73. Erdoğan, S. ve Erdoğan, A. (2018). Türkiye’de Tanzi ve Patinkin Etkilerinin VAR Yöntemiyle Analizi (2006 – 2017). Aksaray Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 1:1-10. Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Temel Ekonometri. Çev., G. G. Şenesen ve Ü.Şenesen, Literatür Yayıncılık. Günaydın, İ. (2004). Bütçe Açıkları Enflasyonist midir? Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(1): 158-181. Im, K. S.,Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). TestingForUnitRoots in HeterogeneousPanels. Journal of Econometrics 115:53-74. Kearney, C. ve Monadjemi, M. (1990). FiscalPolicyandCurrentAccount: International Evidence on theTwinDeficit.Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(2):197–217. Kumar, V.,Leona, R.P. ve Gasking, J.N. (1995). AggregateandDisaggregateSectorForecasting Using Consumer ConfidenceMeasures. International Journal of ForecastingElsevier, 11(3): 361-377. Levin, A., Lin, C. ve Chu, C.J. (2002). UnitRootTests in Panel Data: AsymptoticandFinite-SampleProperties. Journal of Econometrics, 108:1-24. Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999). A ComparativeStudy of UnitRootTestsWith Panel Data And A New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of EconomicsandStatistics, Special Issue, 0305-9049. Muibi, O. S. veSinbo, O. M. (2013). MacroeconomicDeterminants of TaxRevenue in Nigeria (1970-2011). World AppliedSciencesJournal, 28(1): 27-35 Osbat, C. (2004). Panel UnitRootand Panel CointegrationMethods. European Central Bank, September 24. Özgen, F. B. ve Güloğlu, B. (2004). Türkiye'de İç Borçların İktisadi Etkilerinin VAR Tekniği ile Analizi. METU Studies in Development, 31:93-114. Özmen, İ. (2016). Vergi Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz: BRIC-T. Selçuk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 16(32): 232-252. Patoli, A.Q., Zarif, T. ve Syed, N.A. (2012). Impact of Inflation on Taxes in Pakistan: An EmpiricalStudy of 2000-2010 Period. Journal of Management andSocialSciences, 8(2): 31-41. Şen, H. (2003). OliveraTanzi Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Maliye Dergisi, 143:30-57. Tanzi, V. (1978). Inflation, Real TaxRevenueandthe Case forInflationary Finance: Theorywith an Application toArgentina. IMF StaffPapers, 25(3): 417-451. Yıldız, B. (2019). Vergi Gelirlerinin Ekonomik Belirleyicileri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz: Yüksek Gelirli Oecd Ülkeleri Örneği. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 17(3): 324-339.