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An Analytic Approach to Intelligence Failure: Definition, Reasons and Solutions

Year 2017, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 67 - 90, 01.01.2017

Abstract

Intelligence failure is not to be able to produce of timely and correct intelligence about an issue or case concerning national security because of one or more inefficacy of intelligence cycle’s stages as collection, evaluation and analysis, production and dissemination. In this study, failures of intelligence agencies were explained theoretically and analytically by introducing mistakes that are made at each stage of intelligence cycle and offered solutions, then it is emphasized that decision makers who use intelligence also play a role in intelligence failures as well as intelligence agencies. This study aims to contribute intelligence studies discipline which has not take place sufficiently in Turkey’s academic field yet and create an awareness at Turkish intelligence community and decision makers by presenting failures of intelligence agencies systematically so that they practice and learn lessons from mistakes

References

  • Anders Hatlebrekke, Kjetil, & Smith, M. L. R., “Towards a new theory of intelligence failure? the impact of cognitive closure and discourse failure”, Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 25, No. 2, April 2010, pp. 147-182.
  • Betts, Richards, (2009). “Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable”, In Gill, P., Marrin, S., & Phythian, M. (Eds.). Intelligence Theory: Key Questions and Debates (87-111). New York, NY: Taylor & Francis.
  • Brockington, Darin, (2012), “Preventing Intelligence Failures in an Unpredictable 21st Century”, United States Army
  • Carter, David L., (2004), Law Enforcement Intelligence: A Guide for State, Local and Tribal Law Enforcement Agencies.
  • Clark, Robert, (2010), Intelligence analysis: A target-centric approach, (3rd. ed.). Washington, DC: CQ Press.
  • Gardiner, L.Keith (1995), “Dealing with Intelligence-Policy Disconnects”, in Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal, 1955-1992, New Heaven: Yale University Press.
  • Gill, Peter and Phythian, Mark (2006), Intelligence in an insecure world. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press.
  • Hedley, John Hollister (2005), “Learning from Intelligence Failures”, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 18: 3, 435-450
  • Interagency Threat Assessment and Coordination Group (ITACG), (2011), “Intelligence Guide for First Responders”.
  • Jensen, Mark A., (2012), “Intelligence Failures: What Are They Really and What Do We Do about Them?”, Intelligence and National Security, 27:2, 261- 282
  • Jervis, Robert, (2006), “Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures: The Case of Iraq”, The Journal of Strategic Studies, 29: 1, 3-52
  • Jones, Nicholas; Mallik, Lauren; McLaughlin, William and Toy, Dustin, “The Ethics of Information Sharing Between the FBI and CIA”.
  • Kent, Sherman, (2003), Stratejik İstihbarat / Sherman Kent ; çev. B. Yasemin Özbek, Nazlım Şükrüoğlu-Arıca, -1. bsk.- Ankara: Avrasya Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi Yayınları.
  • Krishnaswamy, Janani, (2013), “Why Intelligence Fails”, Policy Report No:3.
  • Kruys, G. P, (2006), “Intelligence failures: causes and contemporary case studies”.
  • Lowenthal, Mark, (2000), “Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy”, CQ Press. Washington, D.C. 2000. ISBN 1-56802-512-2
  • Lowenthal, Mark, (2009), “Intelligence: from secrets to policy”, Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
  • Marrin, Stephen, (2004), “Preventing Intelligence Failures By Learning From the Past”, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 17: 655-672.
  • Office of the Director of National Intelligence, (2011), “An Overview 2011”.
  • Peterson, Steven W., (2009), “US Intelligence Support to Decision Making”, Harvard University.
  • Prunckun, Hank, (2010), Handbook of scientific methods of inquiry for intelligence analysis, Plymouth, UK: Scarecrow Press.
  • Schulsky, Abram N. and Schmitt, Gary J., (2002), Silent Warfare: Undertanding The World of Intelligence, 3rd Edition.
  • Trafton, Dwight E., (1994), Intelligence Failure and It’s Prevention, Naval War College.
  • Turner, Michael A., (2005), Why Secret Intelligence Fails, Potomac Books, Inc.
  • US Government, (2009), “A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis”.

İstihbarat Başarısızlığına Analitik Bir Yaklaşım: Tanımı, Sebepleri Ve Çözüm Önerileri

Year 2017, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 67 - 90, 01.01.2017

Abstract

İstihbarat başarısızlığı, ulusal çıkarları ilgilendiren bir konu veya olay hakkında, istihbarat çarkının toplama, değerlendirme ve analiz, üretim ve dağıtım aşamalarından biri veya birkaçındaki yetersizlikten dolayı zamanında ve doğru istihbarat üretilememesidir. Bu çalışmada istihbarat teşkilatlarının yaşadığı başarısızlıklar teorik olarak ve analitik düzeyde istihbarat çarkının her bir aşamasında yapılan hatalar ortaya konularak açıklanmış ve çözüm önerileri getirilmiş, yaşanan başarısızlıklarda istihbarat teşkilatlarının yanı sıra istihbaratı kullanan karar alıcıların da payının olduğu vurgulanmıştır. Bu çalışma Türkiye’deki akademik camiada halihazırda yeterince yer edinmemiş olan istihbarat araştırmaları disiplinine katkıda bulunmayı ve istihbarat teşkilatlarının yaşadığı istihbarat başarısızlıklarını belirli bir sistematik dahilinde sunarak uygulama ve hatalardan ders çıkarma noktasında Türk istihbarat topluluğunda ve karar alıcılarda bir farkındalık yaratmayı hedeflemektedir

References

  • Anders Hatlebrekke, Kjetil, & Smith, M. L. R., “Towards a new theory of intelligence failure? the impact of cognitive closure and discourse failure”, Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 25, No. 2, April 2010, pp. 147-182.
  • Betts, Richards, (2009). “Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable”, In Gill, P., Marrin, S., & Phythian, M. (Eds.). Intelligence Theory: Key Questions and Debates (87-111). New York, NY: Taylor & Francis.
  • Brockington, Darin, (2012), “Preventing Intelligence Failures in an Unpredictable 21st Century”, United States Army
  • Carter, David L., (2004), Law Enforcement Intelligence: A Guide for State, Local and Tribal Law Enforcement Agencies.
  • Clark, Robert, (2010), Intelligence analysis: A target-centric approach, (3rd. ed.). Washington, DC: CQ Press.
  • Gardiner, L.Keith (1995), “Dealing with Intelligence-Policy Disconnects”, in Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal, 1955-1992, New Heaven: Yale University Press.
  • Gill, Peter and Phythian, Mark (2006), Intelligence in an insecure world. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press.
  • Hedley, John Hollister (2005), “Learning from Intelligence Failures”, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 18: 3, 435-450
  • Interagency Threat Assessment and Coordination Group (ITACG), (2011), “Intelligence Guide for First Responders”.
  • Jensen, Mark A., (2012), “Intelligence Failures: What Are They Really and What Do We Do about Them?”, Intelligence and National Security, 27:2, 261- 282
  • Jervis, Robert, (2006), “Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures: The Case of Iraq”, The Journal of Strategic Studies, 29: 1, 3-52
  • Jones, Nicholas; Mallik, Lauren; McLaughlin, William and Toy, Dustin, “The Ethics of Information Sharing Between the FBI and CIA”.
  • Kent, Sherman, (2003), Stratejik İstihbarat / Sherman Kent ; çev. B. Yasemin Özbek, Nazlım Şükrüoğlu-Arıca, -1. bsk.- Ankara: Avrasya Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi Yayınları.
  • Krishnaswamy, Janani, (2013), “Why Intelligence Fails”, Policy Report No:3.
  • Kruys, G. P, (2006), “Intelligence failures: causes and contemporary case studies”.
  • Lowenthal, Mark, (2000), “Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy”, CQ Press. Washington, D.C. 2000. ISBN 1-56802-512-2
  • Lowenthal, Mark, (2009), “Intelligence: from secrets to policy”, Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
  • Marrin, Stephen, (2004), “Preventing Intelligence Failures By Learning From the Past”, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 17: 655-672.
  • Office of the Director of National Intelligence, (2011), “An Overview 2011”.
  • Peterson, Steven W., (2009), “US Intelligence Support to Decision Making”, Harvard University.
  • Prunckun, Hank, (2010), Handbook of scientific methods of inquiry for intelligence analysis, Plymouth, UK: Scarecrow Press.
  • Schulsky, Abram N. and Schmitt, Gary J., (2002), Silent Warfare: Undertanding The World of Intelligence, 3rd Edition.
  • Trafton, Dwight E., (1994), Intelligence Failure and It’s Prevention, Naval War College.
  • Turner, Michael A., (2005), Why Secret Intelligence Fails, Potomac Books, Inc.
  • US Government, (2009), “A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis”.
There are 25 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Murat Bulut This is me

Publication Date January 1, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 19 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Bulut, M. (2017). İstihbarat Başarısızlığına Analitik Bir Yaklaşım: Tanımı, Sebepleri Ve Çözüm Önerileri. Güvenlik Çalışmaları Dergisi, 19(1), 67-90.