An Analytic Approach to Intelligence Failure: Definition, Reasons and Solutions

Year 2017, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 67 - 90, 01.01.2017

Murat Bulut

Abstract

Intelligence failure is not to be able to produce of timely and correct intelligence about an issue or case concerning national security because of one or more inefficacy of intelligence cycle’s stages as collection, evaluation and analysis, production and dissemination. In this study, failures of intelligence agencies were explained theoretically and analytically by introducing mistakes that are made at each stage of intelligence cycle and offered solutions, then it is emphasized that decision makers who use intelligence also play a role in intelligence failures as well as intelligence agencies. This study aims to contribute intelligence studies discipline which has not take place sufficiently in Turkey’s academic field yet and create an awareness at Turkish intelligence community and decision makers by presenting failures of intelligence agencies systematically so that they practice and learn lessons from mistakes

Keywords

Intelligence, intelligence cycle, intelligence agency, intelligence failure, intelligence analysis

İstihbarat Başarısızlığına Analitik Bir Yaklaşım: Tanımı, Sebepleri Ve Çözüm Önerileri

Abstract

İstihbarat başarısızlığı, ulusal çıkarları ilgilendiren bir konu veya olay hakkında, istihbarat çarkının toplama, değerlendirme ve analiz, üretim ve dağıtım aşamalarından biri veya birkaçındaki yetersizlikten dolayı zamanında ve doğru istihbarat üretilememesidir. Bu çalışmada istihbarat teşkilatlarının yaşadığı başarısızlıklar teorik olarak ve analitik düzeyde istihbarat çarkının her bir aşamasında yapılan hatalar ortaya konularak açıklanmış ve çözüm önerileri getirilmiş, yaşanan başarısızlıklarda istihbarat teşkilatlarının yanı sıra istihbaratı kullanan karar alıcıların da payının olduğu vurgulanmıştır. Bu çalışma Türkiye’deki akademik camiada halihazırda yeterince yer edinmemiş olan istihbarat araştırmaları disiplinine katkıda bulunmayı ve istihbarat teşkilatlarının yaşadığı istihbarat başarısızlıklarını belirli bir sistematik dahilinde sunarak uygulama ve hatalardan ders çıkarma noktasında Türk istihbarat topluluğunda ve karar alıcılarda bir farkındalık yaratmayı hedeflemektedir

Keywords

İstihbarat, istihbarat çarkı, istihbarat teşkilatı, istihbarat başarısızlığı, istihbarat analizi

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