From Al-Qaeda to Post-DEASHEra: Transformation of Global Militant Salafi Movement and Its Future

Year 2019, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 134 - 148, 01.12.2019

Göktuğ Sönmez

Abstract

Due to the Soviet attempt to invade Afghanistan, the subsequent “Afghan Jihad” was supported by the West in the bipolar international system back then and the mujahideen were widely praised in the Western media. After the defeat of the Soviets along with the Soviet inability to keep up with the military and economic race that caused the end of the Cold War, a new approach was adopted. During this period, a significant portion of the fighters of both Afghan origin and the ones coming from other countries moved to more organized structures, Taliban gained power and a new threat emerged with al-Qaeda attacks in the early 90s. In this process, some of the “mujahideen” who were praised in the USSR intervention started to be regarded as a key threat to the security of the region and the world. This issue, which entered the world agenda more seriously after 9/11, has become one of the top priorities in the international security agenda together with the Iraqi al-Qaeda and the DEASH. In this study, after briefly mentioning the al-Qaeda structure and its transformation since the Soviet intervention, the emergence of DEASH, its exceptional financial power and the visibility in the cyber world will be discussed. The post-ISIS scenarios and the way forward to counter those will be evaluated

Keywords

DEASH, Terrorism, Syria, Libya, Counter Terrorism

El-Kaide’den DEAŞ Sonrası Döneme: Küresel Militan Selefi Hareketin Dönüşümü ve Geleceği

Abstract

Sovyetler’in Afganistan’ı işgal girişimi ve “Afgan Cihadı” dönemin iki kutuplu sisteminde destek görmüş, “mücahid”ler Batı medyasında haklarında çıkan övgü dolu haberlerle tanınmıştır. Sovyetler’in Afganistan’daki hezimeti ve o dönemde Soğuk Savaş’ın sonunu getiren önemli sebeplerden biri olan ekonomik yük nedeniyle Afganistan’dan çekilmesini takip eden süreçte ise farklı bir döneme girilmiştir. Bu dönemde Afganistan’daki gerek Afgan asıllı gerek diğer ülkelerden gelen savaşçıların önemli bölümü daha organize yapılanmalara gitmiş, Taliban güç kazanmış, 90’ların ilk yarısındaki el-Kaide saldırılarıyla yeni bir tehdide dikkat çekilmeye başlanmıştır. SSCB müdahalesi sürecinde övgüyle haklarından bahsedilen “mücahid”ler içerisindeki kimi yapılar artık terörist sıfatıyla ve bölge ve dünya güvenliğine tehdit oluşturan bir tehdit unsuru olarak nitelenmeye başlanmıştır. 11 Eylül’le birlikte çok daha ciddi biçimde dünya gündemine giren bu tehdit Irak’ın işgali sonrasında Irak el-Kaidesi ve sonra bu yapı bünyesinden güçlenerek çıkacak olan Irak Şam İslam Devleti DEAŞ ile birlikte en öncelikli başlıklardan biri haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada Sovyet müdahalesinden bugüne kısaca el-Kaide yapılanması ve dönüşümüne değinilmesini takiben DEAŞ’ın ortaya çıkışı, örgütün istisnai bir “başarı” gösterdiği finansal güç ve siber dünyadaki görünürlüğü ele alınacak, örgütün sahadaki yükseliş ve düşüşü irdelendikten sonra takip eden süreçte ne gibi senaryolar ortaya çıkabileceği ve bunlara ne şekilde çözüm üretebileceğine dair değerlendirmeler yapılacaktır

Keywords

DEAŞ, Terörizm, Suriye, Libya, Terörle Mücadele

References

• Al-Tamimi, A. J. (2014). The dawn of the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham. Current Trends in Islamist Ideology 16, 5-15.
• Azami, D. (2016). The Islamic State in South and Central Asia. Survival 58: 4, 131-158.
• Bar, S., & Minzili, Y. (2006). The Zawahiri Letter and the Strategy of al-Qaeda. Hudson Institute.
• Celso, A. N. (2015). The Islamic State and Boko Haram: Fifth Wave Jihadist Terror Groups. Orbis, 249-268.
• Chaliand, G., ve Blin, A. (2016). Terörizmin tarihi: Antikçağdan DEAŞ’e. İstanbul: Nora Kitap.
• Christopher, S. (2016). Chivvis, countering the Islamic State in Libya. Survival 58: 4, 113-130.
• Erdem, S. (2016). Cihatçılar: El Kaide ve DEAŞ’e katılanların hikayesi. İstanbul: Yakın Plan.
• Friis, S. M. (2017). ‘Behead, burn, crucify, crush’: Theorizing the Islamic State’s public displays of violence. European Journal of International Relations, 1-25.
• Gibbs, D. N. (2000). Afghanistan: The Soviet invasion in retrospect. International Politics 37, 233-246.
• Grau, L. W., & Michael, A. C. (der. ve çev.) (2002). The Soviet-Afghan war: How a superpower fought and lost. Kansas: University Press of Kansas.
• Gregory, D. C. (1986). Soviet invasion of Afghanistan: Causes and future options. Air War College Research Report.
• Hollanda Genel İstihbarat ve Güvenlik Servisi. (2016). Life with ISIS: the myth unravelled. P.O. Box 20010, 2500 EA The Hague, Ocak 2016.
• Haroro, J. I. (2015). The strategic logic of Islamic State information operations. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 69:6, 729-752.
• Ingram, H. J. (2017). An analysis of inspire and Dabiq: Lessons from AQAP and Islamic State’s Propaganda war. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 40: 5, 357-375.
• International Crisis Group. (2017). How the Islamic State rose, fell and could rise again in the Maghreb. Middle East and North Africa Report No. 178.
• Johnston, P. B. (2017). Oil, extortion still paying off for ISIS. The Cipher Brief, 27/10/2017.
• Karmon, E. (2015). Islamic State and al-Qaeda competing for Hearts & Minds. Perspectives on Terrorism 9:2, 71-79.
• Luck, T. (2016). ISIS, losing territory in Syria, signals strategic shift. The Christian Science Monitor.
• Neumann, P. R. (2017). Don’t Follow the Money. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https:// www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2017-06-13/dont-follow-money, July/August 2017.
• Council on Foreign Relations. (2016, 8 Haziran). Profile: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/profile-abu-musab-al-zarqawi.
• Prucha, N. (2016). IS and the jihadist information highway – projecting influence and religious identity via telegram. Perspectives on Terrorism 10:6,48-58.
• Reuveny, R., & Prakash, A. (1999). The Afghanistan war and the breakdown of the Soviet Union. Review of International Studies 25, 693-708.
• Rosiny, S. (2015). The rise and demise of the IS caliphate. Middle East Policy 22: 2, 94- 107, sf. 96.
• Sonmez, G. (2017). Violent extremism among central Asians: The Istanbul, St. Petersburg, Stockholm, and New York City attacks. CTC Sentinel 10:11, 14-18.
• Stansfield, G. (2016). Explaining the aims, rise, and impact of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham. The Middle East Journal 70:1, 146-151.
• CIA. (1980). The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan: Implications for warning. Interagency Intelligence Memorandum, Ekim 1980
• Tonnessen, T. H. (2015). Heirs of Zarqawi or Saddam? The relationship between al-Qaida in Iraq and the Islamic State. Perspective on Terrorism 9:4, 48-60.
• UN Securiy Council. (2014). UN Al-Qaida sanctions list, list of individuals, entities and other groups, 2014.
• Waldeck, A. (2015). The ideology of ISIS – a motivation for Europeans to become foreign fighters?. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Roskilde University.
• Whiteside, C. (2016). New masters of revolutionary warfare: The Islamic State movement (2002-2016). Perspectives on Terrorism 10:4, 6-20.
• Winter C. (2015). Documenting the virtual ‘Caliphate’. Quilliam Foundation.
• Winter, C. (2017a). Is Islamic State losing control of its virtual caliphate. BBC.
• Winter, C. (2017b). Inside the collapse of Islamic State’s propaganda machine. Wired.
• Zenko, M. (2017). Bitcoin for bombs. Council on Foreign Relations.