Determinants of Trade in Latin American Countries

Year 2024, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 44 - 57, 05.07.2024

Yağmur Sağlam , Filiz Erataş Sönmez

https://doi.org/10.62001/gsijses.1360814

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to determine the macroeconomic components of trade with a new method for Latin American Countries, taking into account the structural characteristics of the series. Because there are a few quantitative examples in the literature that have been studied with the Gravity model. In addition to macroeconomic variables, to determine the region's place in world trade, a variable representing commercial integration added to the model. In this regard, long-term coefficient estimation ran for ten selected Latin American countries using the dynamic panel data analysis method. According to the findings, while the unemployment rate and real interest rates negatively affect foreign trade, the main determinants of foreign trade in the long term are official exchange rates, binding tariffs and per capita national income, respectively. The two countries in the region that are best integrated in foreign trade are Mexico and Chile. Therefore, trade liberalization and integration are still a problem in this region and studies in this context need to be continued.

Keywords

International Trade, Latin American Countries, Panel Data Analysis, Common Correlated Effects Model

Latin Amerika Ülkelerinde Ticaretin Belirleyicileri

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı ticaretin makro iktisadi bileşenlerinin Latin Amerika Ülkeleri için belirlenmesidir. Bu doğrultuda, on Latin Amerika ülkesi için ekonometrik bir model oluşturulmuş ve ampirik analiz için durağan olmayan panel veri yönteminden yararlanılmıştır. Öncelikle değişkenlerin eğim katsayısının heterojenliği ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı araştırılmıştır. İkinci nesil birim kök ve eş-bütünleşme testine yer verilen çalışmada uzun dönem regresyon katsayı tahmincisi olarak ortak ilişkili etkiler modeli tercih edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre işsizlik oranı ve reel faiz oranları dış ticareti olumsuz yönde etkilerken, dış ticaretin uzun dönemde temel belirleyicileri sırasıyla resmi kur oranları, bağlayıcı tarifeler ve kişi başına düşen milli gelirdir. Bölgede dış ticarete en iyi bütünleşmiş olan iki ülke ise Meksika ve Şili'dir.

Keywords

Ortak Etkili İlişkiler Modeli, Panel Veri Analizi, Latin Amerika Ülkeleri

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