IMPACT OF VOLATILITY OF WORLD OIL PRICES ON TURKEY’S FOOD PRICES: GARCH APPROACH

Abstract

This study aims at analyzing the effects of global oil price shocks on food price volatility in Turkey. GARCH models are used to analyze monthly data of the said variables covering a period of 1995-2000. The results show that the global oil prices significantly effect the volatility of the food prices in Turkey. Moreover, the oil price shocks have delayed effect on the food price volatility. This may be a result of agricultural products’ low elasticity of supply and taxes on oil prices. Furthermore, the delayed effect of the oil price shocks provide opportunity for policy makers and market participants to take necessary measures to reduce its impact.

DÜNYA PETROL FIYATLARI OYNAKLIĞININ TÜRKIYE’DEKI GIDA FIYATLARINA ETKİSİ: GARCH YAKLAŞIMI

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, küresel petrol fiyat şoklarının Türkiye'de gıda fiyatları oynaklığına etkileri incelenmiştir. 1995-2000 dönemini kapsayan aylık verileri analiz etmek için GARCH modelleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, küresel petrol fiyatları oynaklığının önemli ölçüde Türkiye'de gıda fiyatlarına etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir.Bunun yanısıra, petrol fiyat şoklarının gıda fiyatları oynaklığına etkisi gecikmelidir. Bu durum tarımsal ürünlerin düşük arz elastikiyeti ve petrol fiyatlarından alınan vergilerin sonucu olabilir. Ayrıca, petrol fiyat şoklarının gecikmeli etkisi, etkisileri azaltarak gerekli önlemleri almak için politika yapıcılara ve piyasa katılımcılarına fırsat sağlayabilir

Keywords

• Tarım ürünleri üretici fiyat endeksi, Petrol fiyatları, GARCH model, Türkiye

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