Climate Change, Threat Multiplier Effect, and Security: From Climate Security to International Security

Year 2023, Volume: 19 Issue: 46, 537 - 560, 30.12.2023

Bengü Çelenk

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1321596

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Climate change is a multifaceted and comprehensive issue addressed through its direct and threat multiplier effects. In the relevant literature, climate change’s direct and threat multiplier effects are studied through human, national, and international security aspects. In particular, the threat multiplier effect is an issue that affects more than one referent object of security, with its ability to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. However, few studies examine the threat multiplier effect, which can be complex and sometimes large-scale or multi-layered at more than one or two levels of analysis. Drawing inspiration from Graeger’s 1996 study on environmental security, this research highlights the limitations of perceiving climate change impacts solely through national or international security lenses. It advocates for a more holistic approach, focusing on the multiple connections between climate change, security, and social, economic or political vulnerabilities. Based on the analytical literature review, this study proposes a multi-level security framework for analysing the impacts of climate change. Central to the study is developing a multi-level systematic perspective that bridges the referent objects of security. In this regard, the study establishes the causal chains between human, national, and regional/international security by considering climate change’s direct and threat multiplier effects. Concluding that effective actions and strategies should be context-specific and suited to multiple levels of analysis, this study highlights the importance of considering climate change from the multi-level security framework.

Keywords

Climate Change, Security, Threat Multiplier Effect, Multi-Level Security Framework

İklim Değişikliği, Tehdit Çarpanı Etkisi ve Güvenlik: İklim Güvenliğinden Uluslararası Güvenliğe

Abstract

İklim değişikliği direkt ve tehdit çarpanı etkileri üzerinden ele alınan çok boyutlu ve kapsamlı bir meseledir. Güvenlik çalışmaları literatüründe ise iklim değişikliğinin direkt ve tehdit çarpanı etkileri sıklıkla insan güvenliği, ulusal güvenlik ve uluslararası güvenlik üzerinden çalışılmaktadır. Özellikle tehdit çarpanı etkisi, mevcut kırılganlıkları şiddetlendirici özelliği ile birden fazla analiz düzeyini etkileyen ve literatürde tartışılan bir konudur. Ancak, karmaşık, bazen büyük ölçekli ve çok katmanlı niteliklere sahip olabilen tehdit çarpanı etkisini bir ya da ikiden fazla analiz düzeyi üzerinden inceleyen az sayıda çalışma bulunmaktadır. İklim değişikliği hem bireysel hem ulusal hem küresel bir problemdir dolayısıyla bu meseleye birden fazla analiz düzeyi üzerinden bakabilmek önemlidir. Graeger›in 1996 yılında çevresel güvenlik üzerine yaptığı araştırmadan ilham alan bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğine yalnızca ulusal veya uluslararası güvenlik gözlüğünden bakmanın sınırlılıklarını eleştirerek iklim değişikliği, güvenlik ve sosyal, ekonomik veya politik kırılganlıklar arasındaki çoklu bağlantılara odaklanan bütünsel bir yaklaşımı savunmaktadır. Analitik literatür taramasına dayanan bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğinin etkilerini analiz etmek için çok düzeyli bir güvenlik çerçevesi önermektedir. Çalışmanın merkezinde güvenliğin referans nesneleri arasında nedensellik bağları kuran çok düzeyli sistematik bir perspektif yer almaktadır. Çalışma, etkili eylem ve stratejilerin bağlama özgü olması ve birden fazla analiz düzeyine uygun olması gerektiği sonucuna vararak iklim değişikliğini çok düzeyli güvenlik çerçevesinden ele almanın önemini savunmaktadır.

Keywords

İklim Değişikliği, Güvenlik, Tehdit Çarpanı Etkisi, Çok Düzeyli Güvenlik Analizi

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