Assessing the Monthly Total Rainfall Trends at Artvin and Rize Stations using Different Methods

Abstract

The global average temperature is rising along with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The change in temperature causes fluctuations in other climatic parameters, especially precipitation. Determining precipitation change is critical regarding the sustainability of water resources and agricultural activities. In this study, the trend of monthly total precipitation values between 1970-2021 at Rize and Artvin stations in the Eastern Black Sea Region was evaluated. Trend analysis was conducted with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR) methods, the Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) methods, and the trend slope was determined using Sen's slope method. As a result of the study, it was seen that the results obtained using SR and MK methods at Rize and Artvin stations were similar. In addition, as a result of the analyzes made with these methods, while a statistically significant increasing or decreasing trend could not be determined in any month at Rize Station, a statistically significant increasing and decreasing trend were determined in only two months at Artvin Station. The ITST and IPTA methods, on the other hand, found a significant trend in more months, and it was seen that most of the trends were in an increasing direction. As a result, the IPTA and ITST methods have been emphasised as being more sensitive in determining trends than the MK and SR methods.

Artvin ve Rize İstasyonlarına ait Aylık Toplam Yağış Verilerinin Trendinin Farklı Yöntemlerle Değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Artan sera gazı emisyonuna paralel olarak küresel sıcaklık ortalaması da günden güne artmaktadır. Sıcaklıkta meydana gelen değişim başta yağış olmak üzere diğer iklim parametrelerinde değişikliklere neden olmaktadır. Su kaynakları ve tarımsal faaliyetlerin sürdürülebilir olmasında yağışta meydana gelen değişimin belirlenmesi oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesinde bulunan Rize ve Artvin istasyonlarında 1970-2021 yılları arasında elde edilen aylık ortalama yağış değerlerinde meydana gelen değişimin trendi değerlendirilmiştir. Parametrik olmayan Mann-Kendall (MK) ve Spearman Rho (SR) yöntemlerinin yanı sıra, Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) ve Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) yöntemleri ile trend analizi yapılmış ve Sen's eğim yöntemi kullanılarak trend eğimi belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, Rize ve Artvin istasyonlarında SR ve MK yöntemleriyle elde edilen sonuçların benzer olduğu iki istasyonda da birbirleriyle aynı sonuçları verdiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca, bu yöntemlerle yapılan analizler sonucunda ise Rize istasyonunda herhangi bir ayda istatiksel olarak anlamlı artan veya azalan trend belirlenemez iken, Artvin istasyonunda ise sadece iki ayda istatiksel olarak anlamlı artan ve azalan trend belirlenmiştir. ITST ve IPTA yöntemleri ise daha fazla ayda anlamlı trend belirlemişler ve trendlerin çoğunun artan yönde olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak, IPTA ve ITST yöntemlerinin, MK ve SR yöntemlerine kıyasla trend belirlemede daha hassas olduğu vurgulanmıştır.

Keywords

• Aylık toplam yağış
• Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi
• Trend analizi yöntemleri
• Sen'in eğim metodu

Thanks

Bu çalışmanın yapılabilmesi için yağış verilerini sağlayan Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’ne teşekkür ederiz.

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