Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

1301-8752 1309-6338

Hacettepe University

10.17065/huniibf.259130

ESTIMATION OF TURKEY’S BEVERIDGE CURVE FOR THE PERIODS OF THE PRE AND THE POST GLOBAL CRISIS

Küresel Kriz Öncesi ve Sonrası Dönem için Türkiye’nin Beveridge Eğrisi Tahmini

Tokatlıoğlu

İbrahim

09 30 2016

34 3 73 105 04 17 2015

1983

Hacettepe University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences

Thispaper estimates the Beveridge Curve and Matching Function using monthly data onTurkish Labor Market between January of 2015 and July of 2014. Two sub periodswithin the period in question are handled separately to identify the effects ofGlobal Crisis in 2008 on Turkish Labor Market and Turkey’s Beveridge Curve. Theparameter that reflects the average efficiency of matching technology is treatedas a time varying parameter in estimating the matching function. Estimates aremade on the state-space model. According to the results, it is found that theparameter which represents the average efficiency of matching technology isincreasing over time. The increase in unemployment and the shortages in openjobs in the post-crisis periods have led to easily matching the vacancies toappropriate unemployed. The estimation results show that the Turkey’s BeveridgeCurve has a right sided shift with an increasing slope accompanying, bothwithin the pre and post crises periods. In addition, evidence on shifting ofthe Beveridge Curve within the pre and post crises periods has been observedhowever the slope of the curve stayed constant in the sub-periods.

Bu çalışmada Türkiye İşgücü Piyasası için Ocak-2005 ile Temmuz 2014 tarihleri arasında aylık veriler kullanılarak eşleşme fonksiyonu ve Beveridge Eğrisi tahmin edilmiştir. 2008 yılında yaşanan Küresel Krizin etkilerini görmek için söz konusu dönem iki alt döneme ayrılmıştır. Eşleşme fonksiyonu tahmininde eşleşme teknolojisi ortalama etkinliğini gösteren parametre, zamanla değişen parametre olarak ele alınmış ve tahminler durum-uzay modeli çerçevesinde yapılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre kriz ve sonrası dönemde Türkiye Beveridge Eğrisinin hem eğimini artırdığı hem de sağa doğru kayma gösterdiği bulunmuştur. Bunun yanında kriz öncesi ve sonrası dönemlerde Beveridge Eğrisi’nde kaymalar olduğu ancak alt dönemlerdeki kaymalarda eğiminin değişmediği gözlemlenmiştir.

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