Analysis of Internal Migration to Istanbul: Gravity Model Approach

Year 2019, Volume: 6 - GELISIM-UWE 2019 Special Issue, 44 - 58, 29.10.2019

Halil İbrahim Keskin

https://doi.org/10.17336/igusbd.571951

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Istanbul, as it was in the past, is still an important magnet for immigrants. However, it is seen that the internal migration to Istanbul has decreased in recent years. Even though the studies show similar economic and social factors-put forth by migration literature are valid for Turkey, there are doubts about whether these factors are being investigated with appropriate techniques. The gravity model that is used for investigating internal migration is a logarithmic linear model. Some studies have revealed that the logarithmic transformation causes some problems in theoretically. These problems cannot be solved by conventional estimation methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use Poisson estimators for overcoming this problem. The aim of this study is to investigate the internal migration to Istanbul with the help of various estimation techniques. The findings show that the PPML estimator is a more proper method to estimate the gravity model than the traditional least squares and panel estimators. While the results obtained by standard methods showed that the relative unemployment factor significantly increased the migration to Istanbul, the PPML results show that the relative unemployment did not have a significant effect on the explanation of the internal migration to Istanbul.

Keywords

Internal Migration, Gravity Model, PPML, Panel Data Analysis, Labor Market, Istanbul

İstanbul’a Yönelik İç Göçün Analizi: Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı

Abstract

İstanbul, geçmişte olduğu gibi günümüzde de önemli bir çekim merkezidir. Ancak, son yıllarda İstanbul’a olan iç göçün azaldığı görülmektedir. Çalışmalar, göç literatürü tarafından ortaya konulan benzer ekonomik ve sosyal faktörlerin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu gösterse de, bu faktörlerin uygun tekniklerle ile araştırılması noktasında şüpheler bulunmaktadır. İç göçü araştırmak için kullanılan çekim modeli logaritmik doğrusal bir modeldir. Yapılan bazı çalışmalar logaritmik dönüşümün teorik olarak bazı sorunlara neden olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu sorunlar geleneksel tahmin yöntemleriyle düzeltilememektedir. Dolayısıyla bu sorunun üstesinden gelmek için Poisson tahmincilerinin kullanılması önerilmektedir. Bu çalışmada çeşitli tahmin teknikleri yardımıyla İstanbul’a yönelik iç göçün araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular PPML tahmincisinin geleneksel en küçük kareler ve panel tahmincilerine göre, çekim modelinin tahmini için daha uygun olduğunu göstermektedir. Standart yöntemlerle elde edilen sonuçlar göreli işsizlik faktörünün İstanbul’a yönelik göçü anlamlı bir şekilde arttırdığını gösterirken, PPML sonuçları göreli işsizliğin İstanbul’a yönelik iç göçü açıklamada anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olmadığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

İç göç, Çekim Modeli, PPML, Panel Veri Analizi, İşgücü Piyasası, İstanbul

References

• AKARCA, A. T., & TANSEL, A. (2017). Tourism-Driven Migration to Southwestern Turkey. Bogazici Journal: Review of Social, Economic & Administrative Studies, Vol 31 (1), 23-42.
• AKARCA, A. T., & TANSEL, A. (2018). Analyzing Internal Migration to Antalya and Muğla through Gravity Modelling. Sosyoekonomi, Cilt 26 (37), 117-126.
• ANDERSON, J. E. (2011). The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics, Vol 3 (1), 133-160.
• BAUER, T. K., & ZIMMERMANN, K. F. (1999). Assessment of possible migration pressure and its labour market impact following EU enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe (Vol. 3). Bonn: iza.
• BOBKOVÁ, B. (2012). Gravity model estimation using panel data-is logarithmic transformation advisable? (Published Master Thesis). Institu of Economic Studies, Praha, Czech Republic.
• BREUSCH, T. S. & PAGAN, A. R. (1979). A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, Vol 47 (5), 1287-1294.
• BURGER, M., Van OORT, F. & LINDERS, G. J. (2009). On the specification of the gravity model of trade: zeros, excess zeros and zero-inflated estimation. Spatial Economic Analysis, Vol 4 (2), 167-190.
• EICHENGREEN, B. & IRWIN, D. A. (1998). The role of history in bilateral trade flows. In The regionalization of the world economy (pp. 33-62). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
• ETZO, I. (2011). The determinants of the recent interregional migration flows in Italy: a panel data analysis. Journal of Regional Science, Vol 51 (5), 948-966.
• EVCİL, N., DÖKMECİ, V. & KİROGLU, G. B. (2006). Regional migration in Turkey its directions and determinants. ERSA Conference Papers.
• FİLİZTEKİN, A. & A. GÖKHAN (2008). The determinants of internal migration in Turkey. In International Conference on Policy Modelling (EcoMod2008), Berlin, Germany, 2-4 July 2008.
• FLOWERDEW, R. & AITKIN, M. (1982). A method of fitting the gravity model based on the Poisson distribution. Journal of regional science, Vol 22 (2), 191-202.
• GEDİK, A. (1997). Internal migration in Turkey, 1965–1985: Test of conflicting findings in the literature. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Vol 9 (2), 170-179.
• GEZİCİ, F. & KESKİN, B. (2005, August). Interaction between regional inequalities and internal migration in Turkey. In ERSA Conference Papers (pp. 1-18).
• GHATAK, S., LEVINE, P. & PRICE, S. W. (1996). Migration theories and evidence: an assessment. Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol 10 (2), 159-198.
• GOKHAN, A. & FİLİZTEKİN, A. (2008). The determinants of internal migration in Turkey. In International Conference on Policy Modelling. EcoMod (Vol. 2008).
• GOURIEROUX, C., MONFORT, A. & TROGNON, A. (1984). Pseudo maximum likelihood methods: Theory. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, Vol 52 (3), 681-700.
• GÜNDÜZ, M. & YETİM, N. (1997). Terör ve göç. Toplum ve Göç-II. Ulusal Sosyoloji Kongresi (November 20–22, 1996, Mersin) Bildiriler Kitabı, 109-18.
• KAREMERA, D., OGULEDO, V. I. & DAVIS, B. (2000). A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America. Applied Economics, Vol 32 (13), 1745-1755.
• LUCAS, R. E. (1997). Internal migration in developing countries. Handbook of population and family economics, Vol 1 (B), 721-798.
• MCCULLAGH, P. & NELDER, J. A. (1989). Generalised linear models 2nd edn. Monographs on statistics and applied probabilitity. London: Chapman and Hall.
• MOLHO, I. (1986). Theories of migration: a review. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol 33 (4), 396-419.
• MUNRO, J. M. (1974). Migration in Turkey. Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol 22 (4), 634-653.
• POOT, J., ALIMI, O., CAMERON, M. P. & MARÉ, D. C. (2016). The gravity model of migration: the successful comeback of an ageing superstar in regional science. IZA Discussing Paper No. 10329.
• SILVA, J. S. & TENREYRO, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol 88 (4), 641-658.
• SİLVA, J. S. & TENREYRO, S. (2011). Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. Economics Letters, Vol 112 (2), 220-222.
• TUNALI, I. (2000). Rationality of migration. International Economic Review, Vol 41 (4), 893-920.
• WESTERLUND, J. & WILHELMSSON, F. (2011). Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data. Applied Economics, Vol 43 (6), 641-649.
• YÜCEOL, H. (2011). Türkiye'de illerarası işsizlik oranı farklılıkları, göç ve ekonomik kalkınma. Sosyoekonomi, Cilt 15 (15), 30-54.