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Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply

Year 2012, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 41 - 49, 01.03.2012

Hamidreza Mostafaei Leila Sakhabakhsh

Abstract

In this paper the specification of long memory has been studied using monthly data in total oil supply in Iran from 1994 to 2009. Because monthly oil supply series in Iran are showing non-stationary and periodic behavior we fit the data with SARIMA and SARFIMA models, and estimate the parameters using conditional sum of squares method. The results indicate the best model is SARFIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, -0.199, 0)12 which is used to predict the quantity of oil supply in Iran till the end of 2020. Therefore SARFIMA model can be used as the best model for predicting the amount of oil supply in the future.

Keywords

Long memory Conditional sum of squares SARFIMA model Oil Iran

Year 2012, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 41 - 49, 01.03.2012

Hamidreza Mostafaei Leila Sakhabakhsh

Abstract

There are 0 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA78RF85HP
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Hamidreza Mostafaei This is me

Leila Sakhabakhsh This is me

Publication Date March 1, 2012
Published in Issue Year 2012 Volume: 2 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Mostafaei, H., & Sakhabakhsh, L. (2012). Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2(1), 41-49.
AMA Mostafaei H, Sakhabakhsh L. Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. IJEEP. March 2012;2(1):41-49.
Chicago Mostafaei, Hamidreza, and Leila Sakhabakhsh. “Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2, no. 1 (March 2012): 41-49.
EndNote Mostafaei H, Sakhabakhsh L (March 1, 2012) Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2 1 41–49.
IEEE H. Mostafaei and L. Sakhabakhsh, “Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply”, IJEEP, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 41–49, 2012.
ISNAD Mostafaei, Hamidreza - Sakhabakhsh, Leila. “Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2/1 (March 2012), 41-49.
JAMA Mostafaei H, Sakhabakhsh L. Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. IJEEP. 2012;2:41–49.
MLA Mostafaei, Hamidreza and Leila Sakhabakhsh. “Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 2, no. 1, 2012, pp. 41-49.
Vancouver Mostafaei H, Sakhabakhsh L. Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. IJEEP. 2012;2(1):41-9.